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SCP-5401 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-5401
Expected annual
$11.4M
One-time setup
$11.2M
Annual recurring
$10.6M
Personnel
15.5
Initial capital investments for facility hardening and monitoring (~$11.2M one-time) and ongoing operational costs driven primarily by increased controlled-substance procurement, forensic analysis, monitoring, and lost productivity (~$10.48M/yr). The largest recurring drivers are drug procurement/consumables and analysis/monitoring programs.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $11.2M
Relocation Or Severance $6.0M
[#24] Long-term contingency buildout or severance/relocation costs (facility build or mass redeployment/severance). Large, optional one-time depending on posture chosen.
Facilities $2.1M
[#4, #6, #9, #19, #21] Vault expansion, secure locker/collection installation, on-site incinerator installation/permits, isolation suite conversions, and dorm/room sealing and upgrades (includes HVAC recalibration).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.8M
[#14, #15] Research program large-equipment purchases and high-end analytical instrumentation / real-time detection equipment for origin/countermeasure work.
Equipment $1.3M
[#3, #7, #10, #16, #20] Monitoring suite hardware (cameras/PSG/environmental sensors), biometric lockers/personnel scanners hardware, secure server/database UI one-time costs, and minor security/equipment purchases.
Protocol Documentation $50K
[#18] One-time containment documentation sprint, SOP writing and approvals.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $10.6M/yr
Supplies And Consumables $3.1M/yr
[#5, #8, #9, #23] Controlled-substance procurement/consumption surge, per-sample consumables for triage/testing, and secure disposal contract costs (incineration/disposal per-package).
Research And Monitoring $2.5M/yr
[#7, #8, #14, #15, #16] Continuous sleep-study monitoring operations (data storage/analysis), forensic laboratory operational costs (sampling/LC-MS/NMR throughput), and multi-disciplinary research program recurring budget.
Staff Wages $2.0M/yr
[#1, #4, #8, #10, #16] On-site psychological team (therapists + supervisor + admin), pharmacy/logistics clerks, forensic staffing (chemist/tech), security staffing and IT/sysadmin support included here.
Contingency Reserve $953K/yr
[#22] Standing contingency/reserve fund (~10% of estimated operational budget) for unexpected scale-ups, emergent countermeasures, or crises.
Productivity Loss $638K/yr
[#12] Quantified lost productivity due to therapy time, journaling, and sleep-related efficiency loss (therapy hours, journaling time, and estimated 5% payroll productivity loss).
Sick Leave And Replacement $300K/yr
[#13] Increased sick leave, temporary contractor hires, recruitment and onboarding costs due to disorder-related disability/leave.
Logistics And Transport $200K/yr
[#5, #23, #25, #19] Secure transport and courier contracts for controlled substances, inter-site coordination travel/transport, and emergency transfer logistics.
Cover Story And Legal $200K/yr
[#17, #22] Legal retainer/cover operations, liaison with regulators, and standing PR/cover contingency funding.
Weekly Therapy Sessions $200K/yr
[#2] Marginal per-session billing/materials for weekly CBT/exposure for affected personnel (if billed per-session rather than fully salaried capacity).
Procurement Premium $200K/yr
[#23] Premiums for expedited/secure synthesis and prioritized supply contracts (20–100% markup on unit costs; accounted separately from base procurement).
Emergency Response And Quarantine $100K/yr
[#19] Ongoing emergency team training, equipment for quarantine/isolation suites, and readiness costs.
Dream Journal Admin $95K/yr
[#3] FTE data admin/analyst for dream-journal collection, anonymized analysis, compliance audits, and platform licensing/hosting maintenance (paper scanning if used).
Facilities Maintenance $50K/yr
[#6, #7, #10, #21] Vault and facility systems maintenance, sleep-suite upkeep, security hardware maintenance, and dorm/HVAC upkeep.
Training And Compliance $50K/yr
[#11, #18] Annual mandatory training, audits, HR/legal review time, and compliance monitoring.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $10.6M/yr
75.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with ongoing containment posture, triage sampling, and steady-state monitoring and procurement.
steady_manifestation_rate routine sampling and disposal no major regulatory incident
🚨 Minor Incident $12.0M/yr
20.0% probability / year +$1.4M vs baseline
Temporary spike in manifested packages and sampling/analysis rates requiring expanded forensic throughput and short-term procurement increases.
spike in manifestation frequency temporary full-sample analysis ramp-up short-term regulatory scrutiny
🚨 Major Breach $21.5M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$10.9M vs baseline
Containment failure or major memetic escalation requiring large-scale relocation/severance, emergency mass analysis/disposal, and extensive cover/legal operations.
containment failure affecting other projects mass manifestations or public exposure decision to relocate or strike cohort reduction
👥 Personnel 15.5 total
Role Count Notes
Psychological staff (therapists / supervising psychologist / admin) 4.5 [#1] 3 FTE therapists + 1 supervising psychologist + 0.5 FTE admin as specified for onsite CBT/exposure coverage.
Forensic staff (chemist + lab tech) 1.5 [#8] 1 forensic chemist + 0.5 FTE technician to support sample analysis and chain-of-custody processing.
Pharmacy / Logistics Clerk 1.5 [#4] 1–2 FTE clerks for daily collection/return processing and inventory reconciliation (modeled as 1.5 FTE).
Sysadmin / Security IT 1.0 [#16] Recurring sysadmin/security IT support for encrypted storage, air-gapped backups, and audit trails.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 6 [#10, #20] Combined additional security staffing to enforce returns, manage lockers, and elevated material/personnel control (2–4 + 4–8 suggested; modeled as 6 FTE).
Data Analyst / Admin 1.0 [#3] 0.5–1.0 FTE data admin/analyst for dream-journal processing and compliance audits (modeled as 1.0 FTE here; recurring costs included).
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are built from analyst-provided ranges and explicit line-item guidance; however many recurring items (procurement unit cost, sampling rate, and policy choices like full-sample analysis vs. triage) have wide ranges and drive large uncertainty, so confidence is medium.
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