SCP-5420 — SCP-5420 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-5420 Safe ~ medium confidence

SCP-5420

Expected annual

$41.1M

One-time setup

$3.7B

Annual recurring

$30.4M

Personnel

Estimated one-time capital expenditure of $3,663,300,000 driven primarily by spacecraft development, launch, and potential follow-up/sample-return missions; recurring operations and secrecy overhead are estimated at $30,425,000 per year. [#30]

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $3.7B

Sample Return Mission $1.2B

[#15] Sample-return mission (mission hardware + mission operations) — separate from laboratory buildout in initial_research_and_lab_setup.

Followup Lander $900.0M

[#14] Follow-up robotic/lander/penetrator mission to SCP-5420-B (mid-range for a capable, safe mission).

Equipment $504.0M

[#1, #8, #11, #12] Spacecraft bus & instrument suite Probe 7-B (~$500M), secure archive hardware & installation (~$1M), initial radio-analysis cluster & software (~$2.5M), imaging pipeline development (~$0.5M).

Launch Vehicle $275.0M

[#3] Medium/heavy-class launch including integration and insurance (mid-range estimate).

Contingency Reserve $200.0M

[#26, #30] Program-level contingency (20–40% of capital); included to cover cost growth and mission unknowns; ties to overall program summary.

Facilities $140.0M

[#6, #16] Ground-station build (~$90M) plus Site-196 mission-control / high-security expansion (~$50M) — structural construction, reinforcement, EMI/EMP/HVAC work.

Power System $125.0M

[#2] Deep-space-capable power (RTG + integration assumed for reliability) chosen here; solar option would reduce cost materially.

Redundancy Reserve $100.0M

[#13] Contingency fund for backup probe or rapid replacement (reserve held instead of building full second probe).

Emergency Response Fund $100.0M

[#27] Ready-access fund for rapid follow-ups, priority launch options, or emergency tasking.

Initial Research And Lab Setup $50.6M

[#10, #15] Initial hiring/setup for LANCER science team (~$0.6M) plus containment / analysis lab buildout and instrumentation (~$50M) for sample handling and anomalous-material work.

Propulsion Fuel $40.0M

[#4] Fuel and propellant margin for transfer and multi-year stationkeeping (mid-range for chemical/electric options).

Insurance Reserve $10.0M

[#29] Insurance / reputational contingency funds and covert payments reserved for high-risk exposure events.

Decommissioning $5.0M

[#28] End-of-mission disposal, archive transfer and facility mothballing (mid-range).

Cover Story Initial $5.0M

[#20] Initial cover-story and coordinated public-relations funding to establish plausible mission narratives with partners.

Legal Setup $5.0M

[#21] Initial legal, interagency agreements, classified contracting setup and liaison arrangements.

Testing And Qualification $2.0M

[#24] Thermal-vacuum, vibration, antenna ranges, signal-injection and end-to-end rehearsals (mostly up-front).

Cybersecurity Hardening $1.0M

[#18] Initial classified-network hardening, air-gap implementation and hardening of telemetry archives.

Personnel Vetting Initial $500K

[#23] Initial background checks, polygraphs and clearance processing for new personnel.

Web Crawler Dev $200K

[#19] Initial development of web-crawlers and leak-monitoring tooling.

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $30.4M/yr

Staff Wages $13.0M/yr

[#7, #10] Mission operations (flight controllers, navigators, uplink team) and core science & analysis team salaries and overhead (combined mid-range).

Counterintelligence Ops $5.0M/yr

[#22] Field operations, human-source handling, and active counterintelligence to intercept leaks and manage narratives.

Research And Monitoring $3.7M/yr

[#5, #9, #11, #12] DSN/ground comms leasing (~$3M/yr), long-term data storage & maintenance (~$0.25M/yr), cloud/compute costs for radio analysis (~$0.3M/yr) and imaging pipeline operations (~$0.175M/yr).

Cover Story And Legal $3.0M/yr

[#20, #21, #29] Ongoing public-relations campaigns, occasional staged releases, legal renewals, interagency liaison and limited covert payments/insurance replenishment.

On Site Security $2.0M/yr

[#17] Armed security, classified-ops guards and perimeter protection staffing and related operational costs.

Facilities Maintenance $1.5M/yr

[#6, #16] Yearly maintenance, utilities, HVAC and specialized shielding upkeep for Site-196 mission control, archives and ground antenna.

Web Crawlers And Moderation $1.0M/yr

[#19] Ongoing web monitoring, takedowns, moderation and legal takedown actions.

Personnel Vetting $500K/yr

[#23] Ongoing re-clearance, psychological screening and continuous monitoring of personnel.

Cybersecurity Ops $400K/yr

[#18] Ongoing intrusion detection, monitoring, classified network administration and incident response for telemetry/data systems.

Supplies And Consumables $300K/yr

[#25] Consumables, spare parts, media/tape refresh and calibration supplies; obsolescence refresh cycles.

Logistics And Transport $0/yr

[]

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $30.4M/yr

91.0% probability / year

Normal operational year with continuous monitoring, routine maintenance and staff operations only.

routine monitoring no hardware failures no public exposure

🚨 Minor Incident $40.4M/yr

7.0% probability / year +$10.0M vs baseline

Localized anomaly: probe subsystem failure, brief signal anomaly, or modest security leak requiring accelerated investigation and repairs.

probe subsystem failure temporary comms outage minor data leak

🚨 Major Breach $530.4M/yr

2.0% probability / year +$500.0M vs baseline

Catastrophic hardware loss or major loss of data/cover leading to emergency replacement launch and major legal/CI response.

probe failure beyond repair major public exposure loss/theft of samples or classified data

👥 Personnel 30 total

Role	Count	Notes
Mission Operations (Flight / Mission Control)	15	[#7] Flight controllers, navigators, uplink team and ops center staff; 24/7 staffing covered in mission ops portion of staff_wages.
Research Scientist / Analysis Team	12	[#10] Astronomers, radio engineers, signal analysts, xenoarchaeologists, linguists and systems engineers covered in science salaries portion of staff_wages.
Administrative Staff	3	[#10] Administrative and program management support included in staff_wages estimates.

📋 Confidence Notes

Analyst notes provide detailed range estimates for most line items, allowing mid-range budgeting; uncertainty remains high for follow-up/sample-return mission scope, contingency sizing and political/insurance exposure, so confidence is medium.

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