SCP-5468 — SCP-5468 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-5468 Uncontained ~ medium confidence

SCP-5468

Expected annual

$1.3M

One-time setup

$32.5M

Annual recurring

$1.1M

Personnel

One-time deployment and containment estimated at $32,480,000 driven primarily by mission architecture, insurance/asset replacement reserves, and surface/retrieval hardware; recurring annual costs are approximately $1,110,000/yr driven by staff wages, research, and facilities/monitoring.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $32.5M

Insurance Reserve $20.0M

[#18] One-time contingency reserve for replacement of launch vehicle/lander or other major asset loss (small-robotic-to-midsize mission reserve chosen).

Mission Architecture $5.0M

[#1] Design/contract/launch costs for a marginal activation lunar retrieval mission using Foundation-owned Lunar Area assets (baseline chosen as marginal activation).

Surface Retrieval Hardware $3.0M

[#4] Robotic manipulator, grappling tools, containment pallet or small rover / EVA toolkits for retrieval of object + corpse.

Facilities $1.0M

[#6] Lunar Area upgrades / construction of quarantine/airlock modules or marginal upgrades to existing Lunar Area 32.

Rapid Response Premium $1.0M

[#2] Accelerated schedule premiums, fast-track engineering and contingency planning for urgent retrieval.

Mission Operations $500K

[#3] Mission control, flight controllers, relay bandwidth and mission duration ops for short retrieval mission.

Opportunity Cost Reserve $500K

[#26] Notional opportunity-cost reserve for diverted Lunar Area assets (baseline conservative estimate).

Security Mission Hazard Pay $400K

[#12] One-time hazard-pay premiums for lunar mission security personnel (mission-specific payouts).

Initial Research And Lab Setup $100K

[#8] High-speed diagnostics, remote rigs, Faraday cages and other lab setup for safe characterization.

Containment Transport Capsule $100K

[#5] Secure sealed transport container for lunar transit (vacuum seals, dampers, remote interfaces).

Shock Mitigation Infrastructure Initial $100K

[#14] Initial engineered inertia dampers, sacrificial mass or shielding to capture/releases of stored kinetic energy.

Cover Story Initial $100K

[#16] Initial costs to establish a cover story / legal redaction and PR setup for the retrieval event.

Classified Logistics Initial $100K

[#17] One-time special procurement and covert-shipping premiums for vacuum-rated containment and black-budget procurement channels.

Emergency Medical Initial $100K

[#19] Initial medevac / emergency readiness setup and supplies for mission and receiving base.

Personnel Training Initial $100K

[#21] Initial EVA / containment / rapid-certification training for mission-class team.

Equipment $50K

[#7] Low-risk object storage unit / hardened locker hardware (small-scale equipment).

Specialized Ppe Initial $50K

[#9] Initial purchase of hazmat/EVA suits, vacuum-rated body bags, portable sterilization and refrigerated/cryogenic mortuary equipment.

Quarantine Pathology $50K

[#10] One-time forensic autopsy, toxicology, and BSL-3/4 processing costs for corpse handling.

Redaction Initial $50K

[#22] Initial redaction, takedown, legal actions and memetic containment setup.

Computational Modeling $50K

[#23] High-fidelity trajectory and intercept simulations, HPC time for mission planning.

Public Safety Initial $50K

[#24] Initial public-safety coordination, agency engagement and observation restrictions related to lunar impact/debris.

Decommissioning Contingency $50K

[#27] Contingency for controlled neutralization / destruction engineering and safety costs if chosen.

Repatriation And Cover Return $20K

[#11] Packaging, clandestine transport, cover arrangements, and any initial family/PoI payments for return.

Archive And Documentation Initial $10K

[#25] Secure vault setup, chain-of-custody documentation and archives for test results.

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.1M/yr

Staff Wages $330K/yr

[#12] Salaries for terrestrial security team, engineer/maintenance and administrative staff (4 guards plus onsite technical/admin support).

Research And Monitoring $300K/yr

[#15] Scientist salaries, controlled test runs, simulation time and ongoing containment R&D.

Cover Story And Legal $150K/yr

[#16,#22] Ongoing legal support, PR, liaison with agencies and memetic monitoring/response.

Redaction Monitoring $75K/yr

[#22] Ongoing takedown operations, monitoring for leaks and memetic containment maintenance.

Facilities Maintenance $50K/yr

[#13] Power, sensor uptime, periodic inspections, calibration and lunar-base provisioning for storage unit monitoring.

Logistics And Transport $50K/yr

[#11,#17] Recurring covert shipping, small repatriation logistics and classified procurement shipping fees.

Classified Logistics Recurring $50K/yr

[#17] Recurring costs for special procurement channels and covert supply-chain premiums.

Supplies And Consumables $40K/yr

[#9,#25] Consumables including PPE replacements, pathology consumables and general expendables for testing and handling.

Shock Mitigation Replacements $20K/yr

[#14] Replacement/repair budget for dampers, absorbers or sacrificial shielding after tests/incidents.

Waste Handling Decontamination $20K/yr

[#20] Annual disposal of contaminated PPE, biohazardous waste handling and decontamination consumables.

Personnel Training Recurring $20K/yr

[#21] Recurring refresher training, simulator time and certification maintenance.

Emergency Medical Recurring $10K/yr

[#19] Ongoing medevac readiness, medical supplies and quarantine support on-site.

Public Safety Recurring $10K/yr

[#24] Recurring coordination with public safety agencies and observation management.

Archive Maintenance Recurring $5K/yr

[#25] Yearly maintenance of secure archives, backups and chain-of-custody records.

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.1M/yr

90.0% probability / year

Normal year with no major incidents: routine monitoring, research, maintenance, and staff wages only.

no_incident routine_monitoring

🚨 Minor Incident $1.3M/yr

5.0% probability / year +$180K vs baseline

Localized anomalous discharge or containment event causing limited damage and requiring repairs, investigations, and temporary increased security.

minor_discharge sensor_alarm localized_damage

🚨 Major Breach $6.1M/yr

3.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline

Significant uncontrolled release/damage requiring a follow-up retrieval mission, major asset replacement, extended investigations and PR response.

large_discharge equipment_destruction loss_of_storage_unit

🚨 Political Exposure $1.4M/yr

2.0% probability / year +$280K vs baseline

Public leak or observed event forcing large-scale PR, legal payouts, diplomatic engagement, and expanded redaction operations.

public_leak satellite_imagery_exposure

👥 Personnel 10 total

Role	Count	Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent	4	Terrestrial site security staffing (24/7 coverage) and mission security; salaries included in staff_wages.
Research Scientist	3	Containment R&D team performing experiments, simulations and monitoring; salaries included in research_and_monitoring.
Engineer / Maintenance	1	Site engineer for sensor maintenance, storage unit upkeep; salary included in staff_wages.
Medical Officer	1	Medical readiness and pathology coordination; partial-year/full-time equivalent covered under emergency_medical recurring/initial budgets.
Administrative Staff	1	Administrative and liaison work for cover-story, logistics and documentation; included in staff_wages and cover_story budgets.

📋 Confidence Notes

Analyst notes provide detailed line items and realistic ranges, but large uncertainties remain around mission-scale choices (marginal activation vs new crewed missions), insurance/reserve sizing, and lunar-specific recurring costs. Estimates therefore have moderate confidence.

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