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SCP-5469 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-5469
Expected annual
$2.2M
One-time setup
$2.6M
Annual recurring
$2.1M
Personnel
14
One-time setup is approximately $2.23M driven primarily by a $1.0M contingency reserve, land acquisition, and initial infrastructure; recurring operations are ~ $2.12M/yr driven by security & research salaries, a daily firefighting standby contract, and ongoing research/monitoring costs.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $2.6M
Contingency Reserve $1.0M
[#23] Containment breach contingency fund / rapid-response reserve (one-time set-aside).
Facilities $650K
[#1, #2, #3, #11, #28] Land purchase/lease and title/easement (#1), perimeter fencing/gates/signage initial install (#2), vegetation/firebreak construction (#3), modular operations trailer/lab purchase & installation (#11), secure archival vault construction (#28).
Equipment $330K
[#7, #8, #9, #10, #12, #20] Initial fire-suppression hardware stockpile (#7), surveillance array initial install (#8), tethered/armored remote observation platform(s) and robotic assets initial purchase (#9), NAS/servers initial purchase (#10), backup generator/ATS purchase (#12), vehicle purchases (2 SUVs) (#20).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $250K
[#14] Specialized instrumentation for temporal/causality experiments (atomic clocks, synchronized triggers, high-speed cameras, detectors, shielding) initial purchase.
Community Relations Initial $200K
[#18] Initial community relations / relocation / settlement fund to compensate claimants and establish NDAs (one-time buyouts).
Records Expungement $75K
[#17] One-time records expungement and historical redaction project (legal/IT effort).
Abatement $75K
[#22] Hazardous-materials and building remediation contingency (asbestos/lead paint abatement, one-time if required).
Summary Initial Capital $0
[#31] Summary estimate (listed for audit; not an additional cost — total above aggregates primary one-time items).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $2.1M/yr
Staff Wages $1.1M/yr
[#5, #13] 24/7 security staffing (6 FTE guards + supervision) and research staffing (4 researchers + 2 techs + 1 admin); includes salaries, benefits, training and hazard pay.
Research And Monitoring $335K/yr
[#8, #9, #10, #14, #24, #28] Surveillance & sensor maintenance (#8, $10k/yr), tethered/robot maintenance (#9, $10k/yr), data storage operations and cloud archiving ($60k/yr) (#10), instrumentation calibration/upgrades (#14, $50k/yr), ongoing experimental budget (external labs, assays) (#24, $200k/yr), archival operations for evidence preservation (#28, $5k/yr).
Fire Response Contract $250K/yr
[#6] Standby fire-response contract for daily burn window (midpoint ~$250k/yr as per $200–300/hr × 3 hr/day × 365).
Cover Story And Legal $210K/yr
[#16, #18, #29] Legal/records & cover-story maintenance and ecological survey contractors/PR (#16, $120k/yr), ongoing community relations/legal upkeep payments (#18, $50k/yr), PR/legal defense retainer for exposure/litigation (#29, $40k/yr).
Facilities Maintenance $89K/yr
[#2, #3, #4, #12, #26, #27] Perimeter fence maintenance (#2, $2k/yr), vegetation/firebreak upkeep (#3, $10k/yr), regular vegetation management / brush clearance contract (#4, $50k/yr), backup generator fuel & maintenance (#12, $5k/yr), waste management/site housekeeping (#26, $10k/yr), permits/taxes/utilities (#27, $12k/yr).
Insurance $50K/yr
[#19] Insurance and liability coverage premiums (property, environmental, special risks).
Supplies And Consumables $40K/yr
[#15, #30] Experimental consumables, PPE, disposable sensors (#15, $25k/yr) and small tools/spare parts/equipment replacement budget (#30, $15k/yr).
Medical Support $30K/yr
[#21] Medical, psychological support and debriefing for personnel (contract counseling, emergency medical supplies).
Training Drills $20K/yr
[#25] Training, evacuation drills, procedural documentation updates and associated costs.
Logistics And Transport $15K/yr
[#20] Vehicle operations: fuel, routine maintenance for 2 SUVs (approx. $15k/yr).
Fire Suppression Replacement $5K/yr
[#7] Annual replacement/retesting and consumable replacement for fire-suppression stockpile (foam, pumps, retardant).
Summary Recurring Estimate $0/yr
[#32] Summary recurring estimate (provided as audit reference; recurring totals above are the operative figures).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $2.1M/yr
88.0% probability / year
Normal uneventful year with no major incidents; routine operations, monitoring, and scheduled experiments.
no breach regular maintenance and scheduled experiments daily standby operations
🚨 Minor Incident $2.4M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$300K vs baseline
Localized containment incident (e.g., uncontrolled small fire spread or equipment failure) requiring emergency response, overtime, temporary repairs, and legal/PR activity.
small fire breaches containment external firefighting and overtime minor repair and legal/PR activation
🚨 Major Breach $4.6M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$2.5M vs baseline
Significant escalation (structure fully involved, wider spread, discovery risk) requiring demolition/abatement, large-scale mitigation, major legal settlements and extended research response.
full structural failure with wider fire spread public exposure or litigation need for demolition, large-scale abatement and extended MTF/research mobilization
👥 Personnel 14 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 6 [#5] Six FTE site guards to provide 24/7 coverage, per analyst notes.
Site Supervisor / Security Supervisor 1 [#5] On-call supervision and shift oversight included in security staffing estimate.
Research Scientist 4 [#13] Four researchers to study causal loop and entities (included in research staffing).
Lab Technician 2 [#13] Two technical staff supporting experiments and monitoring (included in research staffing).
Administrative Staff 1 [#13] One administrative staff member for project admin and records (included in research staffing).
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are directly based on analyst line-item figures and are internally consistent; uncertainty remains due to anomalous behavior, local contracting variability, and the discretionary size of contingency/settlement funds which dominate one-time costs.
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