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SCP-5654 Ticonderoga ~ medium confidence
SCP-5654
Expected annual
$11.7M
One-time setup
$12.6M
Annual recurring
$11.3M
Personnel
61
Initial setup costs are ~USD 12.6M driven by contingency reserves, clinical research setup, monitoring hardware and archival cataloguing; recurring annual operations are ~USD 11.3M dominated by embedded-agent payroll, central coordination staff, and ongoing research/monitoring/legal/PR expenses.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $12.6M
Contingency Reserve $5.0M
[#21] One-time contingency/emergency fund for large-scale incidents, whistleblower mitigation, or high-profile exposure (seed reserve).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $2.7M
[#6, #7, #24] Initial clinical cohort study costs (100-subject study), IRB/regulatory setup fees, and pilot therapeutic trial protocol/setup.
Indemnity Reserve $2.0M
[#13] One-time indemnity reserve / initial settlement fund to backstop cooperative agreements with facilities.
Equipment $1.4M
[#4, #5, #18, #19] Initial monitoring hardware (cameras/mics/EEG kits/installation), hardened data environment setup, field secure-communications kits (initial), and initial detection-algorithm/software development.
Archival Cataloguing $725K
[#11, #25] Initial indexing/transcription of existing songs and initial long-term archival/legal custodial setup.
Training Development $525K
[#3] Development of SOPs/training videos and initial rollout visits/materials for targeted facilities (development + pilot rollout).
Facilities $200K
[#1] Secure operations office fit-out / initial physical workspace for central coordination.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $11.3M/yr
Staff Wages $7.4M/yr
[#1, #2, #8, #9, #12, #16, #20] Central coordination team salaries, embedded covert agents' stipends/pay, added caregiver overtime/coverage, physician oversight, psychosocial counselors, online-analyst payroll portion, and ethics/oversight staff.
Research And Monitoring $1.8M/yr
[#5, #6, #19, #22, #23] Secure cloud storage & compute, ongoing clinical research program costs (multi-year studies), software maintenance/updates for detection models, participant compensation per-study, and translation/localization services.
Cover Story And Legal $850K/yr
[#7, #13, #15, #16] Ongoing regulatory/compliance/legal retainer costs, public-relations/disinformation campaign budgets, and portion of online-monitoring operations tied to information control.
Facility Cooperation Payments $500K/yr
[#14] Direct stipends/grants to cooperating assisted-living facilities (pilot scale ~50 facilities).
Logistics And Transport $350K/yr
[#17] Travel, secure deployments, urgent transfers, and per-mission secure transport budgets.
Supplies And Consumables $255K/yr
[#9, #10, #11, #18] Medication/emergency kit replenishment and oversight costs, per-administration amnestic costs reserve, ongoing minor indexing/transcription additions, and field-kit annual refresh.
Facilities Maintenance $160K/yr
[#4, #25] Ongoing maintenance/hardening for deployed monitoring hardware per facility and custodial/archival maintenance.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $11.3M/yr
77.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with no major incidents; routine monitoring, research, and cooperation payments only.
routine_operations scheduled_research no_media_exposure
🚨 Minor Incident $11.8M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Localized cluster of incidents requiring extra deployments, short PR push, and limited legal/settlement expenses.
localized_media_mention cluster_of_incidents limited_legal_action
🚨 Major Breach $14.8M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$3.5M vs baseline
High-profile exposure or multi-facility leak causing large legal settlements, major PR campaign, and large-scale operational response.
high_profile_leak mass_exposure class_action_or_government_inquiry
🚨 Research Breakthrough Requiring Scale Up $16.3M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Significant research finding that requires rapid scaling of monitoring, clinical trials and archival work to exploit or control implications.
unexpected_research_result policy_decision_to_scale need_for_large_multi-center_trials
👥 Personnel 61 total
Role Count Notes
Program Manager 1 [#1] Senior program lead for coordination and incident response.
Analyst / Intelligence 3 [#1, #16] Data/lead analysts for reports, social monitoring, and pattern analysis.
Incident Liaison 1 [#1] Single point-of-contact for incidents and facility coordination.
IT Support 1 [#1, #5] IT/security support for encrypted storage and edge devices.
Research Scientist 5 [#6, #19] Clinical researchers/neuroscientists running studies and algorithm development.
Medical Officer 2 [#6, #9] Clinical oversight for imaging, participant safety, and medication protocols.
Psychosocial Counselor / Family Liaison 4 [#12] Counselors to support families and staff after episodes and shepherd cooperation.
Administrative Staff 3 [#1, #14] Program administration and facility liaison support (contracts, stipends).
Security Officer / MTF Agent 1 [#17] Security support for sensitive deployments and evidence chain.
Embedded Agent / Medical Liaison 40 [#2] Covertly embedded agents in medical/assisted-living facilities (stipends and cover costs included in embedded-agent budget).
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates use midpoints of analyst ranges and a pilot-scope operational assumption (≈50 facilities / 40 agents). Major uncertainties include scale (number of affected facilities), frequency of incidents, and program scope; anomalous behavioral effects and legal/PR exposure add further variance.
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