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SCP-5840 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-5840
Expected annual
$9.8M
One-time setup
$10.2M
Annual recurring
$9.4M
Personnel
34
Initial capital outlay of approximately $10.24M for secure labs, imaging/forensics gear, vehicles, containment build-out and a contingency reserve; ongoing annual operations are roughly $9.40M driven primarily by staff wages, legal/deniability funds, disposal/event costs and embedded intelligence/investigations.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $10.2M
Facilities $4.2M
[#4, #6] Warehouse fit-out & security upgrades ($200k) plus long-term containment facility build-out/purchase & fit-out (~$4M midpoint).
Contingency Reserve $3.0M
[#24] Initial contingency/deniability reserve (set-up) — large variable fund for escalation (chosen midpoint for capital set-up).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.9M
[#7, #9, #10, #20, #23] Electronics/forensic lab equipment and benches ($1.75M midpoint), initial sample-analysis ramp-up ($50k), initial cola/public-health test startup (~$20k), initial SOP/write-up ($25k), initial secure DB/setup (~$50k).
Equipment $1.1M
[#2, #3, #5, #11, #12, #14, #21] UAV hardware ($150k), armored vans ($200k), tactical equipment ($50k), forklift/crane & crates ($150k), shielded workbench bays & crates ($115k), cyber/tools hardware ($75k), spare-part inventory tooling ($175k), anti-parachute/detection sensors ($225k) aggregated.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $9.4M/yr
Staff Wages $3.1M/yr
[#1, #3, #8, #12, #15, #19] SOC/OSINT analysts (~3 @ $80k each = $240k), rapid-response operatives (12 total ≈ $1.0M), robotics/software engineering specialists (~5 ≈ $780k), cybersecurity staff (~$300k), physical security guards (~$500k), embedded intelligence asset salaries (~$300k).
Cover Story And Legal $2.0M/yr
[#17, #18, #22, #29] Poster-removal & PR retainer (~$325k/yr plus ad buys contingency), legal/diplomatic & deniable funds (~$1.25M/yr midpoint), humanitarian mitigation reserve (~$175k/yr), records/legal archive suppression (~$162.5k/yr).
Research And Monitoring $1.5M/yr
[#1, #2, #7, #9, #10, #19, #20, #23, #26, #28] OSINT/software subscriptions (~$40k), satellite imagery tasking (~$225k/yr), lab consumables/calibration (~$75k), materials/thaumaturgical testing & consultant contracts (~$337.5k), cola forensic ongoing testing (~$17.5k), embedded investigations/subscriptions portion (~$250k), training budget (~$100k/yr), translation/records management (~$60k/yr), public-health surveillance (~$112.5k/yr), specialized consultant contracts (~$300k/yr).
Facilities Maintenance $878K/yr
[#4, #6, #11, #15, #27] Long-term facility operations (~$550k/yr), warehouse rental & on-site security (~$185k/yr), Faraday/enclosure maintenance (~$17.5k/yr), alarm/CCTV maintenance (~$45k/yr), utilities/energy (~$80k/yr).
Logistics And Transport $621K/yr
[#2, #3, #5, #16, #21, #25] UAV operations/ops (~$60k/yr), vehicle fuel & maintenance (~$120k/yr), per-event logistics/charter estimated for baseline event frequency (~$60k/yr), medics/standby retainer + per-event (~$81k/yr), parachute-countermeasure operations (~$75k/yr), travel/visas/safehouses (~$225k/yr).
Deactivation And Disposal $600K/yr
[#13] Mass disposal / controlled deactivation costs — estimated average of ~2 mass-disposal events/yr × ~$300k/event (midpoint).
Contingency Replenish $500K/yr
[#24] Annual replenishment allocation for contingency/emergency fund usage and escalation mitigation.
Supplies And Consumables $150K/yr
[#14, #30] Spare-part consumption & tooling consumption (~$100k/yr) and small consumables/PPE per-year (~$50k).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $9.4M/yr
55.0% probability / year
Normal year with routine monitoring, 1–3 low-frequency events handled under regular procedures and no major diplomatic or media escalations.
low-frequency events (1–3/yr) standard seizures and analysis routine PR/removal activities
🚨 Minor Incident $9.8M/yr
40.0% probability / year +$400K vs baseline
Localized high-visibility event requiring extra ad-suppression buys, emergency charters, and elevated legal/liaison spending beyond baseline.
viral local media exposure one significant mass delivery heightened public attention requiring ad buys
🚨 Major Breach $14.4M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Large-scale televised event or diplomatic incident requiring substantial deniability payouts, emergency international containment operations, legal settlements and mass disposal/cleanup.
national/international media broadcast governmental diplomatic dispute widespread public health or anomalous escalation
👥 Personnel 34 total
Role Count Notes
Intelligence Analyst / OSINT Analyst 3 [#1] Continuous SOC/OSINT monitoring staff (3 analysts @ ~$80k each).
Security Officer / MTF Agent (rapid-response operatives) 12 [#3] Two rapid-response teams (2×6) for on-scene cordon, seizure and crowd control.
Research Scientist / Robotics Engineer 5 [#8] Robotics/software engineering & firmware reverse-engineering specialists (4–6; midpoint used).
Cybersecurity Analyst 2 [#12] Cyber/data analysis and secure imaging staff.
Physical Security Guard 10 [#15] On-site guards, background-checked rotations for warehouses and labs (8–12; midpoint used).
Intelligence Asset / Undercover Operative 2 [#19] Embedded corporate intelligence placements (2–4 assets; lower-mid staffing).
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide itemized estimates and ranges, allowing midpoint modeling; uncertainty remains due to event frequency, host-nation political risk, and highly variable deniability/legal fund needs, so confidence is medium.
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