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SCP-5849 Cernunnos1 ~ medium confidence
SCP-5849
Expected annual
$1.9M
One-time setup
$3.5M
Annual recurring
$1.8M
Personnel
10
Initial one-time setup for a modest national monitoring and research program is estimated at roughly $3.48M, driven mainly by contingency/reserve funds and potential containment buildout. Ongoing annual operations are estimated at about $1.81M/yr, driven by field response staffing, research personnel, mental-health services, and legal/privacy/communications budgets.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $3.5M
Facilities $2.0M
[#5, #18] Includes archival shelving/environmental controls (note #5) and contingency for minimal containment site construction (note #18; lower-bound $2,000,000 used).
Liability Settlement Reserve $500K
[#15] One-time reserve fund recommended for potential settlements/reserves (note #15, recommended $500k).
Contingency Escalation Reserve $500K
[#20] One-time escalation/unknown-risk reserve recommended (note #20, recommended $500k).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $260K
[#4, #19] Forensic lab instruments and bench equipment (note #4, $250k) plus initial digitization workflow/setup (note #19, $10k).
Equipment $125K
[#1, #6] Surveillance pilot node hardware (50 nodes @ ~$2k each = $100k; note #1) and initial secure server/software setup (note #6, $25k).
Public Messaging Strategy $30K
[#14] One-time ethical/public messaging strategy development (note #14, $30k).
Training Program Development $25K
[#9] One-time development and rollout of training materials and program (note #9, $25k).
Initial Death Record Purchase $15K
[#13] Initial data purchase for pilot/death-record access (note #13, $15k).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.8M/yr
Staff Wages $1.0M/yr
[#2, #3, #8, #12] Salaries/benefits: field response agents and team lead (note #2 ~ $481k), licensed clinician salary (note #3 $120k), liaison officer (note #8 $60k), research staff (note #12 $360k).
Research And Monitoring $210K/yr
[#1, #6, #11, #13] Surveillance cloud/storage/transfer (note #1 $12k/yr), digital evidence storage/ops (note #6 ~$18k/yr), DNA/forensic testing budget (note #11 ~$150k/yr), death-record access fees (note #13 $30k/yr).
Recipient Counseling And Therapy $180K/yr
[#3] Counseling budget for recipients (~200 recipients * 6 sessions * $150/session = $180k/yr) separate from clinician salary (note #3).
Cover Story And Legal $150K/yr
[#7, #14] Legal/privacy retainer and litigation/records fees (note #7 ~$100k/yr) plus ongoing PR/monitoring (note #14 ~$50k/yr).
Logistics And Transport $89K/yr
[#2, #8, #17] Vehicle fleet maintenance/fuel (note #2 ~$40k/yr), travel/field logistics (note #17 ~$40k/yr), liaison travel/meetings (note #8 included here ~$9k/yr).
Supplies And Consumables $70K/yr
[#4, #10, #19] Forensic consumables and QA/calibration (note #4 ~$50k/yr), biohazard/evidence consumables (note #10 $5k/yr), and digitization/archival maintenance (note #19 $15k/yr).
Facilities Maintenance $53K/yr
[#5, #16] Ongoing archival utilities/monitoring (note #5 $3k/yr) and office/administrative overhead (note #16 $50k/yr).
Insurance And Reserve $25K/yr
[#15] Annual liability insurance premium estimate (note #15 $25k/yr).
Training And Refresher $10K/yr
[#9] Annual refresher workshops and materials (note #9 $10k/yr).
Containment Recurring If Enacted $0/yr
[#18] Conditional recurring cost if containment mandated; analyst estimate ~$1,000,000+/yr if enacted (not included in baseline operations).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.8M/yr
89.0% probability / year
Normal, uneventful year operating the monitoring/research/response program without containment enacted.
routine monitoring occasional manifestations no containment mandate
🚨 Minor Incident $2.1M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$330K vs baseline
A year with a moderate spike in manifestations requiring increased counseling, extra forensic testing, and elevated legal/support costs.
multiple regional manifestations higher recipient caseload increased forensic and legal activity
🚨 Containment Mandated $4.8M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$3.0M vs baseline
Ethics/administration reverses decision and mandates active containment, triggering major capital work and elevated annual security/staffing costs.
containment mandate construction of secure site large-scale staffing/security increases
👥 Personnel 10 total
Role Count Notes
Field Response Agent 4 [#2] Four FTE field agents for retrieval/interviews (note #2).
Team Lead / Field Supervisor 1 [#2] One team lead for the field unit (note #2).
Licensed Clinician 1 [#3] One full-time licensed clinician for crisis counseling and referrals (note #3).
Research Scientist 3 [#12] Psychologists/sociologists/data analyst staff (3 FTEs; note #12).
Liaison Officer / Coordinator 1 [#8] Part-time liaison to postal services/local authorities (counted as 1 FTE equivalent; note #8).
📋 Confidence Notes
Line items are explicitly estimated in analyst notes and map directly to categories, giving reasonable fidelity. Major uncertainties remain around containment decisions (note #18), frequency/severity of manifestation spikes, and legal/settlement exposure, so medium confidence is appropriate.
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