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SCP-5862 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-5862
Expected annual
$41.0M
One-time setup
$217.8M
Annual recurring
$38.5M
Personnel
35
Up-front capital expenditures are large (primarily vessel acquisition/conversion, deep-submergence assets, and equipment stockpiles) totalling roughly $218M; ongoing annual operations, staffing, surveillance and contingency maintenance are roughly $38.5M/yr with major drivers being a dedicated corvette deployment, research staffing, covert operations, and perimeter enforcement.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $217.8M
Catastrophic Contingency Reserve One Time $100.0M
[#25] Large-scale worst-case remediation/reserve fund (planning-level reserve; upper end of planning range presented in notes).
Equipment $90.0M
[#2, #3, #4, #5, #7, #10, #14, #15, #19, #23] One-time procurement/retrofit of purpose vessel/retrofit (#2), DSV/submersible acquisition and tooling (#3), ROV/AUV & buoy fleets (#4), shipboard wet lab fit-out (#5), initial specialized suit procurement (#7), MTF boarding equipment/training gear (#10 one-time equipment), mobile incinerator systems (#14), sacrificial spare stockpile (#15), generator/UPS capital (#19), and compute/storage/initial modeling hardware (#23).
Facilities $19.8M
[#6, #8] One-time shore-side BSL-4 upgrades and specialized seawater/immersion tank construction (#6) plus initial medical/quarantine facility build-out (#8).
Emergency Fund Establishment One Time $6.0M
[#16] Establishment of a standing rapid-response/contingency fund to be kept readily available.
Civilian Incident Pool One Time $1.5M
[#21] Initial seed for civilian incident response & compensation insurance pool / standing payout reserve.
Coverup Emergency Payouts One Time $550K
[#13] One-time emergency payouts / immediate settlement funds for sudden incidents or initial cover-up disbursements.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $0
[]
Tactical Destruction Execution One Time $0
[#17] Conditional execution cost for kinetic/nuclear options is effectively not viable/covertly incalculable; set to 0 for fiscal estimate (planning covered in recurring).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $38.5M/yr
Dedicated Ship Operations $9.0M/yr
[#1] Fuel, routine maintenance, port fees, consumables, crewing and on-call engineering for the deployed Foundation corvette currently operational as monitoring/mothership.
Staff Wages $5.7M/yr
[#9, #10, #8] Salaries and benefits for dedicated research team (#9), MTF boarding/interdiction rotation salaries (#10), and medical staffing/clinical care staff (#8).
Asset Replacement Reserve $3.5M/yr
[#24] Annual reserve/insurance-like budget to cover accelerated replacement of high-attrition vessels, ROVs, sensors, and suits.
Containment Perimeter Enforcement $3.0M/yr
[#11] Patrols, maritime exclusion enforcement, notices to mariners, covert payments or deployment of assets to keep civilian traffic away.
Research And Monitoring $2.9M/yr
[#9, #23] Ongoing research team costs, compute/modeling budgets and long-term study/archive maintenance (#9, #23).
Intelligence And Covert Ops $2.5M/yr
[#12] HUMINT/CYBINT, covert disruption and counter-GoI measures to track and mitigate GoI interest in SCP-5862.
Catastrophic Planning And Reserve Maintenance $2.0M/yr
[#25] Recurring planning, liaison and small-scale multinational coordination costs to maintain contingency posture for large-scale mitigation.
Cover Story And Legal $1.8M/yr
[#13] Sustained cover-up, PR, legal actions, payments to local communities, falsified reports and settlements.
Supplies And Consumables $1.7M/yr
[#4, #5, #7, #14, #15] Recurring consumables: ROV/AUV replacement/repair (#4), wet-lab consumables and sample processing (#5), suit replacements/consumables (#7), per-operation sample disposal costs (#14), and sacrificial spare replenishment (#15).
Dsv Operations $1.2M/yr
[#3] Mission operations, maintenance, and O&M for deep-submergence vehicle and crewed submersible capability.
Tactical Planning And Approval $1.0M/yr
[#17] Ongoing planning, legal/strategic review and threat deconfliction for potential tactical destruction options.
Logistics And Transport $900K/yr
[#18] Helicopter/airlift hours, charters and long-range logistics between coastal bases and deployed vessels.
Rov Auv Replacement $650K/yr
[#4] Annual replacement and repairs for ROV/AUV fleets and remote buoys due to high attrition.
Facilities Maintenance $500K/yr
[#6, #19] Recurring maintenance and utilities for shore-side high-containment labs and periodic maintenance for generators/UPS.
Emergency Fund Maintenance $500K/yr
[#16] Carrying costs / replenishment for rapid-response contingency funds maintained year-to-year.
Environmental Monitoring And Compliance $500K/yr
[#20] Environmental monitoring to detect spread and produce cover reports (plausible non-anomalous explanations).
Civilian Incident Pool Recurring $500K/yr
[#21] Ongoing replenishment/reserve for civilian incident response, compensation and hush payments.
Energy Generation And Fuel $375K/yr
[#19] Recurring fuel and maintenance costs for generators powering mothership, buoys and shore labs.
Training And Mental Health $300K/yr
[#22] Ongoing training simulations, drills and psychological support for exposed personnel.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $38.5M/yr
82.5% probability / year
Normal year of operations with routine monitoring, research, maintenance and no major incidents.
regular_surveillance planned_research no_breach_or_large_incidents
🚨 Minor Incident $40.5M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline
Localized incident requiring additional sorties, emergency containment efforts, small replacement purchases and increased covert payouts.
small_breach_or_contact increased_goi_activity asset_losses_requiring_replacement
🚨 Major Breach $88.5M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline
Significant containment failure or loss of mothership requiring replacement, large remediation efforts and major public cover-up operations.
mothership_loss widespread_contamination_nearshore large_scale_mtf_engagement
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $288.4M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$250.0M vs baseline
Extensive uncontrolled spread affecting maritime infrastructure or coastal communities, necessitating international remediation and medical emergencies.
widespread_civilian_infection multi-national_involvement large_scale_environmental_damage
👥 Personnel 35 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 10 [#9] Multi-disciplinary team (virology, materials science, oceanography) — 8–15 specialists; mid estimate used.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 17 [#10] MTF boarding & interdiction teams and rotation staffing; headcount estimated to match recurring MTF salary budget.
Medical Officer 8 [#8] Medical/quarantine staffing for treatment and long-term observation; count estimated from recurring medical staffing budget.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide specific cost ranges for many line items, allowing reasonable mid-point estimates; however the anomalous maritime and biohazard nature of SCP-5862 and the large tail-risk for catastrophic scenarios reduce confidence from 'high' to 'medium'.
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