SCP-5893 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-5893
Expected annual
$60.2M
One-time setup
$9.2B
Annual recurring
$58.6M
Personnel
29
Up-front construction and specialized-material costs are dominated by tungsten-carbide perimeter walls (multi-billion USD). Recurring annual costs are dominated by contingency/reserve contributions, long-term replacement funding, cooling operations, and staff/MTF readiness (~tens of millions USD/yr).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $9.2B
Tungsten Carbide Raw Materials $7.5B
[#2]
Wall Fabrication And Installation $1.2B
[#3]
High Temp Shielding Initial $200.0M
[#4]
Contingency Reserve $200.0M
[#24]
Containment Mobilization Reserve $50.0M
[#30]
On Site Buildings $6.0M
[#12]
Transportation Capital $5.0M
[#23]
Initial Research And Lab Setup $4.5M
[#13]
Power Generation Install $3.0M
[#9]
Robotic Drones Initial $3.0M
[#11]
Thermal Imaging Install $1.8M
[#8]
Land Acquisition And Site Prep $1.2M
[#1]
Perimeter Security Install $1.2M
[#7]
Firefighting Water Install $1.1M
[#10]
Heat Resistant Transport Initial $1.1M
[#18]
Communications Infrastructure $600K
[#28]
Ppe Initial $300K
[#19]
Atmospheric Monitoring Install $125K
[#20]
Legal And Permitting Initial $125K
[#22]
Firebreak Construction $60K
[#5]
Sedatives Initial $55K
[#17]
Facilities $0
[]
Equipment $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $58.6M/yr
Insurance And Contingency Contribution $20.0M/yr
[#24]
Long Term Replacement Fund $20.0M/yr
[#26]
Cooling Operations $5.0M/yr
[#4]
Staff Wages $2.8M/yr
[#14]
Mtf Readiness Annual $2.0M/yr
[#16]
Containment Mobilization Contribution $2.0M/yr
[#30]
Permanent Armed Security $1.1M/yr
[#15]
Research And Monitoring $1.0M/yr
[#13, #27]
Buildings Ops $650K/yr
[#12]
Power Ops Fuel $600K/yr
[#9]
Drone Maintenance $600K/yr
[#11]
Transportation And Logistics $600K/yr
[#23]
Cover Story And Legal $550K/yr
[#22]
Public Coordination $275K/yr
[#29]
Perimeter Security Maintenance $250K/yr
[#7]
Forest Management $175K/yr
[#6]
Heat Resistant Transport Maintenance $175K/yr
[#18]
Environmental Monitoring $175K/yr
[#21]
Firefighting Water Maintenance $150K/yr
[#10]
Communications Ops $150K/yr
[#28]
Thermal Imaging Maintenance $125K/yr
[#8]
Ppe Maintenance $125K/yr
[#19]
Waste Disposal $110K/yr
[#25]
Firebreak Maintenance $30K/yr
[#5]
Sedatives Replenishment $30K/yr
[#17]
Atmospheric Monitoring Maintenance $30K/yr
[#20]
Facilities Maintenance $0/yr
[]
Supplies And Consumables $0/yr
[]
Logistics And Transport $0/yr
[]
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $58.6M/yr
93.8% probability / year
Normal year with no containment breach or major incidents; routine operations, maintenance, and scheduled replacements only.
no_breach routine_maintenance
🚨 Minor Incident $61.6M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$3.0M vs baseline
Localized containment incident requiring single CTF airlift/deployment, limited repairs to sensors/drones, temporary increased fuel and consumables use.
single_specimen_escape localized_fire airlift_deployment
🚨 Major Breach $108.6M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline
Multi-specimen breach requiring extended operations, partial wall/refractory replacement, heavy environmental remediation and larger mobilization of external assets.
multiple_specimen_escape structural_wall_damage major_repairs_rebuild
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $558.6M/yr
0.2% probability / year +$500.0M vs baseline
Worst-case regional conflagration or structural failure leading to large-scale firefighting, national assets mobilized, major reconstruction, environmental and liability costs.
full_containment_failure regional_wildfire infrastructure_loss
👥 Personnel 29 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist / Biologist / Veterinary Staff 4 [#14] Vets and biologists required for husbandry and research (included in staff wages).
Animal Handler / Technician 6 [#14] Daily animal care and field technicians (included in staff wages).
Security Officer / MTF Agent 12 [#15] On-site armed guards and rapid-response security (costed under permanent_armed_security).
Engineer / Maintenance 3 [#3, #9, #11] Facility, power, and equipment maintenance staff (included in staff wages/buildings ops).
Administrative Staff 2 [#12, #22] Site admin, logistics, and permit liaison (included in staff wages / cover story/legal).
Site Director / Executive Staff 1 [#12] Senior oversight (included in staff wages).
Medical Officer 1 [#19] On-site medical/burn treatment capability (included in staff wages/buildings ops).
📋 Confidence Notes
Many recurring and operational costs are well-scoped, but the dominant uncertainty is tungsten-carbide unit pricing and any inflexible single-material requirement for walls; that single item drives multi-billion variance. Contingency/reserve sizing and realistic breach frequency also introduce medium uncertainty.
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