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SCP-6012 Legally ? low confidence
SCP-6012
Expected annual
$18.0M
One-time setup
$188.7M
Annual recurring
$17.1M
Personnel
36
Initial capital outlays are dominated by contingency reserves, specialized vehicles/vessel purchases and equipment/lab buildout (~$189M one-time). Ongoing annual costs center on staff wages, covert operations, chartered fieldwork and intelligence/OPSEC (~$17.1M/year).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $188.7M
Decommissioning And Surrender $100.0M
[#24] Decommissioning, neutralization or surrender cost reserve (worst-case).
Long Term Contingency Reserve $50.0M
[#23] Reserved contingency fund for unpredictable contract outcomes or large remediation payments.
Equipment $14.3M
[#6, #7, #13, #19] Field research vessel and hardware purchase, global sensor hardware & installation, specialized vehicle purchases and secure transport vehicles.
Legal Settlement Contingency $10.0M
[#8] Potential settlement / transaction payments contingency tied to legal outcomes.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $6.0M
[#5, #14] Laboratory capital instruments (cryo-chambers, rheometers, AFM/SEM, spectroscopy) and HPC/cluster purchase for modeling.
Facilities $5.5M
[#1, #11, #15] Cell upgrade (avoid cold surfaces, humidity control, dampers) and pilot infrastructure/field-trial pad construction.
Legal Retainer Initial $2.0M
[#8] Retainer and first-year negotiations to contest/neutralize Contract 1991-JaYa-77866133.
Intelligence Setup $500K
[#9] One-time setup for intelligence/OPSEC monitoring infrastructure and takedown tooling.
Training Setup $200K
[#18] Setup costs for personnel training programs and safety certifications.
Initial Consumables Stockpile $175K
[#12] Initial stockpile of de-icers, abrasives and anti-freeze coatings.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $17.1M/yr
Staff Wages $4.3M/yr
[#2, #3, #4, #21] 24/7 medical care, on-site security staffing, core thaumaturgy/materials research team salaries, and academia/industry/government liaison specialists.
Logistics And Transport $2.7M/yr
[#6, #19, #13] Chartering seasonal vessels/aircraft, per-transfer secure transport operations, and vehicle logistics support.
Intelligence And Opsec $2.5M/yr
[#9] Ongoing intelligence monitoring, rapid-response takedown budgets, covert cyber operations, and disinformation placements.
Cover Story And Legal $2.1M/yr
[#8, #17, #20] Ongoing legal counsel/retainers, insurance/indemnities/legal defense budgets, and PR/cover story creation.
Covert Grants $2.0M/yr
[#10] Covert funding/grants to redirect external research and steer scientific attention away from ice-friction topics.
Research And Monitoring $1.1M/yr
[#7, #14, #15] Sensor comms/maintenance, cloud/HPC modeling operating costs, and operations for field trials/testing facilities.
Emergency Response And Contingency $1.0M/yr
[#16] Emergency medical/response expansion and civil contingency planning for increased accidents in affected zones.
Supplies And Consumables $800K/yr
[#12, #13, #18] Replenishment of de-icers/abrasives/coatings, PPE & maintenance, and recurring training cycle expenses.
Facilities Maintenance $300K/yr
[#22] Energy and ongoing maintenance to keep containment and testing areas warm (HVAC, warmed enclosures).
Administrative And Audit $300K/yr
[#25] Administrative overhead, audits, ethics oversight, procurement channels, and compliance monitoring.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $17.1M/yr
90.0% probability / year
Normal year with ongoing containment, research, OPSEC and no major incidents.
steady research activity no public incidents routine operations
🚨 Minor Incident $19.1M/yr
6.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline
Localized public incident or leak causing small-scale investigations, cleanup and legal response.
public slip/accident linked to anomalous ice small leak or media exposure local legal action
🚨 Political Exposure $27.1M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$10.0M vs baseline
Sustained litigation, political scrutiny or compelled disclosure leading to large legal and PR spend.
court order or public investigation high-profile leak international political pressure
🚨 Major Breach Settlement $67.1M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline
Major containment failure or compelled settlement requiring very large payouts, emergency field operations and program scale-up.
large public incident with casualties forced contractual settlement nation-scale infrastructure impact
👥 Personnel 36 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 12 [#3] Armed cleared guards across shifts with special training for icy/traction operations.
Research Scientist / Thaumaturgist 12 [#4] Lead thaumaturgists, physicists, rheologists, materials scientists, technicians and postdocs.
Medical Officer / Nurses 6 [#2] Round-the-clock medical care, ICU-capable staff and specialist consultants for anomalous physiology.
Monitoring / Liaison Specialist 6 [#21] Analysts embedding with academia, industry and government; OPSEC and information-control liaisons.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates use analyst ranges but the subject is legally anomalous with large contingent liabilities (Contract 1991) and uncertain settlement risks; many high-variance items and scenario-dependent one-time costs reduce confidence.
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