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SCP-6603 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-6603
Expected annual
$3.5M
One-time setup
$4.7M
Annual recurring
$3.4M
Personnel
12
Initial capital purchases and facility options are estimated at about $4.71M one-time, with ongoing program operating costs roughly $3.45M/year; the biggest recurring drivers are crew wages, equipment lifecycle replacement, legal/sovereignty costs and contingency reserves.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $4.7M
Equipment $2.5M
[#1, #4, #6, #10, #15, #19] Purchase of two patrol vessels, unmanned sensor/ASV package, solar station hardware (initial), ROV purchase, cover startup branding costs, initial buoys/exclusion markers and tamper-proof housings.
Facilities $1.8M
[#11, #21] Secure vault buildout and optional permanent facility/dock/helipad construction (one-time capital).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $350K
[#7, #9] High-grade sensors/scientific instruments and initial mobilization for drilling/subsurface investigation (small campaign / research equipment).
Environmental Assessment $60K
[#17] Initial environmental impact assessment / survey (one-time).
Biosecurity Setup $25K
[#18] One-time biosecurity / decontamination station setup and PPE baseline.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $3.4M/yr
Research And Monitoring $1.2M/yr
[#5, #6, #8, #9, #10, #12, #23] High-bandwidth comms/data links, battery replacements for solar stations, field research team travel & per-diem, per-deployment drilling campaign costs, ROV operations (per-deployment), laboratory analysis budgets, and periodic equipment lifecycle replacement (annualized).
Staff Wages $660K/yr
[#3] Marine crew salaries, benefits and training for 24/7 coverage (base payroll estimate including benefits/training markup).
Rapid Response Reserve $500K/yr
[#25] Annual set-aside toward rapid escalation/emergency ramp-up fund to enable immediate larger deployments or buyouts if anomalous behavior accelerates.
Cover Story And Legal $345K/yr
[#13, #14, #15, #22] Legal/sovereignty negotiations, permits and paid access; local community engagement and compensation; ongoing cover operations/PR; public-disclosure monitoring and mitigation.
Logistics And Transport $275K/yr
[#2] Vessel maintenance, fuel, spare parts, docking and hull/engine servicing in tropical corrosive environment.
Insurance And Reserve $200K/yr
[#20] Insurance, escrow funds and a contingency reserve (annual allocation for uninsured contingencies/cost overruns).
Administrative Overhead $165K/yr
[#24] Program manager, logistics coordinator, accounting and procurement overhead.
Secure Storage $50K/yr
[#11] Ongoing secure/climate-controlled storage, monitoring and cataloging costs for retrieved materials.
Emergency Response $50K/yr
[#16] Medevac contracts, contingency fast-vessel/air support readiness and periodic drills.
Environmental Monitoring $25K/yr
[#17] Recurring environmental monitoring and compliance reporting.
Supplies And Consumables $20K/yr
[#18] Ongoing PPE, decontamination consumables and small disposables.
Buoy Maintenance $3K/yr
[#19] Maintenance/repair for sensor housings, anchor systems and exclusion markers.
Facilities Maintenance $0/yr
[]
Permanent Facility Operations $0/yr
[#21] Recurring staffing/maintenance for a permanent on-islet facility not included in baseline; captured as escalation in scenarios.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $3.4M/yr
92.0% probability / year
Remote monitoring and periodic research visits with no major incidents; normal maintenance and program operations.
routine patrols scheduled research rotations no major incidents
🚨 Minor Incident $3.6M/yr
6.0% probability / year +$150K vs baseline
Localized equipment damage or small vessel repair/medical evacuation after an incident; limited legal/PR activity.
sensor vandalism/failure small boat damage/repair single medevac
🚨 Major Breach $5.9M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$2.5M vs baseline
Significant containment/operational failure: vessel loss or severe equipment damage requiring large replacements and legal/containment surge.
vessel loss widespread equipment failure large emergency deployment
🚨 Political Exposure $4.4M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline
Discovery or diplomatic incident requiring large payouts, negotiated access, and extensive legal defense/PR.
local discovery sovereignty dispute major media exposure
🚨 Research Scaleup $5.9M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$2.5M vs baseline
Decision or requirement to escalate to intrusive subsurface investigations and/or permanent on-site control, triggering rapid capital and staffing build-out.
intrusive drilling permanent facility construction expanded containment operations
👥 Personnel 12 total
Role Count Notes
Marine crew / MTF boat crew 8 [#3] Deckhands/coxsains/technicians for 24/7 vessel rotations; primary component of staff wages.
Research Scientist (permanent lead) 1 [#8, #12] Permanent research lead coordinating campaigns; most field specialists are rotational (budgeted in research_and_monitoring).
Engineer / Maintenance 1 [#2, #10] Equipment and vessel systems maintenance, ROV/ROV support.
Medical Officer 1 [#16] On-call medical coordination / medevac liaison included in emergency readiness costs.
Administrative Staff 1 [#15, #24] Program manager / logistics coordinator / accounting covered in administrative overhead.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are assembled from practitioner ranges in the analyst notes; major uncertainties remain around choice of manned vs autonomous monitoring, political/legal costs in Micronesia, and whether permanent facility construction is pursued.
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