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SCP-6623 Unknown ? low confidence
SCP-6623
Expected annual
$13.6M
One-time setup
$20.5M
Annual recurring
$13.4M
Personnel
31
First-year (one-time) capital and setup estimated at $20,525,000 driven by regional facility setup, containment R&D, portable lab and ARS hardware for multiple Ways; recurring annual operations are estimated at $13,352,500/year driven by staffing, central monitoring operations, contingency reserves, air logistics and R&D/monitoring.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $20.5M
Initial Research And Lab Setup $6.8M
[#17, #18, #22, #24] Specialized portable scientific equipment, portable BSL-capable field lab acquisition/outfit, archival records retrieval/digitization costs, and initial containment/temporal R&D capital.
Facilities $5.6M
[#4, #6, #11] Site access/hardening per Way, regional central monitoring facility buildout, and Patagonia FOB capital build (assumed aggregated for 5 Ways; land acquisition and decommissioning split out separately).
Equipment $4.9M
[#1, #2, #3, #13, #14, #28] ARS fabrication/hardware (per-Way deployed across 5 Ways), ARS power & comms capital pieces, satellite/communications terminals, initial air-transport retainer, ground vehicle fleet acquisition, and secure data-storage setup.
Land Acquisition One Time $1.3M
[#9] One-time land purchase/lease/easement payments for ARS pads/FOB sites (assumed averaged across 5 Ways and cover complexity).
Decommissioning Reserve $688K
[#29] Per-Way decommissioning/site restoration reserve (midpoint estimate aggregated for 5 Ways).
Cultural Engagement Initial $525K
[#30] Initial diplomatic/compensation/indemnity and cultural engagement costs to secure local cooperation and cover operations.
Expedition Personnel Costs $375K
[#16] Manned expedition team salaries, hazard pay, and per diems for initial 4–8 week mission (single expedition assumed).
Expedition Planning And Permits $150K
[#15] Planning, training, permits and pre-expedition rehearsals for initial manned expedition (single expedition assumed).
Sample Transport And Analysis Per Expedition $110K
[#19] Secure sample transport and specialist analytical costs for initial expedition.
Post Mission Quarantine Per Expedition $55K
[#20] Quarantine, medical exams, and monitoring for returning expedition personnel (single expedition assumed).
Scaling Allowance First Year $0
[#34] Scaling guidance/rule-of-thumb included for program planning; not added as an extra line-item here (estimates above already scale assumed 5 Ways).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $13.4M/yr
Contingency Fund $2.8M/yr
[#26] Emergency/contingency reserve (10–25% rule-of-thumb applied to program scale).
Staff Wages $2.1M/yr
[#7, #8, #12] Remote-ops monitoring/dispatch team salaries, local security liaisons/rotational guards, and FOB on-site staffing (assumed aggregate staffing for program).
Facilities Maintenance $1.9M/yr
[#2, #5, #6, #12] ARS power/battery/backup maintenance, scheduled ARS inspections/repairs, central monitoring facility operations & non-staff FOB operating costs (utilities, generator maintenance).
Research And Monitoring $1.4M/yr
[#23, #24] Specialist academic contracts (folkloristics, linguistics, archaeology) and ongoing containment/temporal R&D program operations.
Logistics And Transport $1.4M/yr
[#13, #14] Annual helicopter/fixed-wing flight hours and ground-vehicle maintenance/fuel/logistics contracts for regional operations.
Rapid Response Team Fund $1.1M/yr
[#33] Rapid-response PR/legal/deployment reserve for public incidents and cover-up operations.
Cover Story And Legal $895K/yr
[#9, #10, #30, #31] Ongoing legal retainer, PR/cover-story programs, cultural mitigation ongoing payments, and insurance/procurement/legal overhead.
Recruitment And Training $850K/yr
[#32] Recruiting pipeline, background checks, clearances, training and HR overhead to maintain long-term staffing bench.
Ars Comms Operating Per Year $180K/yr
[#3] Monthly satellite/backhaul bandwidth and comms operating costs for ARS units (per-Way monthly midpoint scaled over 5 Ways).
Long Term Medical Psych $175K/yr
[#21] Ongoing medical and psychological care for exposed personnel (therapy, testing, disability contingencies).
Environmental Monitoring And Biosecurity $175K/yr
[#25] Ongoing ecological surveillance and biosecurity testing around Ways and FOB to prevent contamination/invasive species.
Satellite Imagery Subscription $175K/yr
[#27] Commercial satellite imagery subscriptions and automated change-detection analytics for Patagonia monitoring.
Data Storage Operations $175K/yr
[#28] Secure data-center operations, encrypted storage, and classified-data IT operations.
Supplies And Consumables $125K/yr
[#5, #18] Field consumables, spare parts, battery replacements, and consumables for portable field lab operations.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $13.4M/yr
87.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with no major incidents; routine maintenance, staffing, monitoring, and scheduled research expenditures only.
no breaches routine operations scheduled expeditions
🚨 Minor Incident $14.4M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline
Minor containment/field incident requiring emergency repairs, short-term additional personnel, medevac and PR response.
localized ARS failure small field injury/medical evacuation limited site damage requiring repair
🚨 Major Breach $18.4M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Significant containment breach or discovery causing prolonged emergency response, major repairs, large-scale containment R&D and legal exposure.
large-scale containment failure destructive weather plus system failure loss of ARS clusters and FOB damage
🚨 Political Exposure $16.4M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$3.0M vs baseline
Significant political/NGO exposure or diplomatic incident requiring major cover operations, settlements and program relocation/scale-up.
media/NGO exposure local government legal action large-scale civilian encounter
👥 Personnel 31 total
Role Count Notes
Remote Operations Officer / MTF Agent (monitoring & dispatch) 12 [#7] 24/7 watchstanders/operators responsible for ARS telemetry and dispatch.
Duty Supervisor / Remote Ops Supervisor 3 [#7] Tiered supervision for regional operations center.
Technician / Field Technician 4 [#7, #5] Technicians for remote resets, maintenance and repair visits.
Security Officer / Local Liaison (covert guard presence) 6 [#8] Local guard rotations/covert liaisons to deter curiosity and provide periodic patrols.
FOB Support Staff (logistics, medics, cooks) 6 [#12] On-site FOB support personnel for operations and team sustainment.
📋 Confidence Notes
Large uncertainties: unknown number and distribution of Ways, instability of pocket timelines, speculative containment R&D scope and potential memetic/pathogenic risks. Many input ranges are wide and site-specific costs (remoteness, terrain, local law) could shift totals by large factors.
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