SCP-7186 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-7186
Expected annual
$7.7M
One-time setup
$8.6M
Annual recurring
$7.5M
Personnel
19
Up-front mobilization and infrastructure are estimated at approximately $6,480,000 one-time, with ongoing annual operating costs of about $7,540,000 driven primarily by personnel, field research campaigns, logistics (air/ground), and a substantial contingency/monitoring budget.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $8.6M
Equipment $3.0M
[#5, #7, #8, #11, #15, #17, #18, #19, #20] Rugged field vehicles and spare parts, UAV/drone equipment and spares, remote sensor network hardware initial deployment, generators/solar/battery/comms hardware, an initial drilling mobilization reserve for a campaign, Metatron.IO development (software tooling) capital, initial cover-story production costs for staged material, initial local-government goodwill/retainer payments, and initial amnestic stockpile procurement/secure storage. These are capital/hardware/software mobilization costs.
Facilities $2.7M
[#1, #10, #16, #22, #23, #24, #29] Fencing installation and signage for remote exclusion zone, modular field camp / temporary base buildout, secure sample storage setup, initial environmental/regulatory mimicry staging, initial community-relations/hush payments, containment feasibility/engineering study, and initial secure comms/data-security hardware site buildout. Sum reflects mid-range estimates for remote desert infrastructure and engineering study.
Drilling Mobilization $1.0M
[#15] One-time mobilization cost reserved for heavy drill rig deployment(s) if a direct drilling program is authorized; reflects mid-range 10–30 day campaign mobilization.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $800K
[#13, #14, #24] Initial lab buildout and instrument purchases, radiometric & geochemical sample prep capacity, and initial campaign-specific research capital (sampling kits, core handling, specialist assay contracts). Cost covers first-phase campaign equipment and lab readiness.
Metatron Io Development $500K
[#17] One-time capital for building/initializing webcrawler and analytics tooling (development, initial datasets, integration).
Local Government Liaison Initial $300K
[#19] Initial goodwill/retainer or covert payments to local councils, regulators or contractors to establish cover relationships.
Cover Story Initial $200K
[#18] Initial cover-story PR/forensic document production, mock remediation plans, and paid experts to seed narratives in target audiences.
Amnestic Stockpile Initial $150K
[#20] Up-front development/stockpile and secure storage for Class-C amnestic supplies and associated QC equipment.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $7.5M/yr
Staff Wages $1.9M/yr
[#3, #12] Salaries and benefits for on-site security (multi-shift guards) and scientific research staff (geologists/volcanologists/lab techs), plus core on-site support staff. Mid-range payroll figure based on analyst ranges.
Research And Monitoring $1.0M/yr
[#13, #14, #25] Annual field research campaign budget (sampling, surveys, core-drilling contingencies when not a full mobilization), per-campaign assay budgets, and baseline monitoring program grants; conservative mid-range recurring research spend.
Contingency Reserve $1.0M/yr
[#26] Reserve fund (20–30% guideline) for emergency large-scale operations, major media leaks, legal crises or disaster response.
Logistics And Transport $460K/yr
[#5, #6, #16] Vehicle maintenance and light fleet upkeep, chartered aerial support costs (helicopter/aircraft hours), and secure sample transport/shipping logistics.
Cover Story And Legal $450K/yr
[#18, #19, #21, #22, #23] Ongoing PR/cover-story expenditures, payouts/retainers to local stakeholders, legal retainer and litigation reserve contributions, and recurring environmental/regulatory mimicry operations to maintain plausible deniability.
Rapid Reaction Budget $400K/yr
[#4] Mobile Foundation teams, tactical operations, travel, hazard pay and amnestic administration logistics for rapid response and covert operations.
Facilities Maintenance $350K/yr
[#1, #2, #10] Annual fence maintenance/repairs and routine upkeep/operations of the field camp / outpost (sanitation, shelter repairs, small capital repairs).
Metatron Io Ops $300K/yr
[#17] Ongoing cloud, ops, analyst staffing and maintenance for the Metatron.IO monitoring/alerting system.
Personnel Housing And Rotation $300K/yr
[#28] Fly-in/fly-out travel, temporary allowances, rotation logistics and relocation costs for staff based in metropolitan centers.
Long Term Monitoring $300K/yr
[#25] Grants and low-profile funding for university projects, archival research, and continual literature monitoring to spot independent discoveries.
Amnestic Program $200K/yr
[#20] Per-administration costs, medical staffing, covert administration logistics and follow-up testing; covers tens-to-low-hundreds of events a year at mid-range frequency.
Replacement And Depreciation $200K/yr
[#30] Vehicle/gear replacement reserve and accelerated depreciation in harsh desert conditions.
Supplies And Consumables $150K/yr
[#14, #16] Consumables for laboratory assays and secure sample handling, plus general field consumables and supplies.
Local Government Liaison Recurring $150K/yr
[#19] Annual covert payments, allowances or reimbursements to local councils and contractors to sustain the cover story relationship.
Power And Comms $150K/yr
[#11, #29, #27] Fuel, generator maintenance, satellite bandwidth and secure comms operations for persistent remote command and telemetry.
Drone Operations $100K/yr
[#7] Pilots, spare batteries, repairs and operations for persistent UAV surveillance.
Satellite Imagery Subscription $100K/yr
[#9] High-resolution imagery subscription and tasking for change-detection around the site.
Remote Sensor Service $80K/yr
[#8] Annual sensor comms/service, satellite uplink or long-range telemetry and sensor-site service contracts.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $7.5M/yr
83.0% probability / year
Normal, uneventful year with planned research, routine operations, and no major incidents.
planned research campaigns routine maintenance no significant breaches or exposures
🚨 Minor Incident $7.8M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$300K vs baseline
Localized intrusion or targeted exposure requiring extra MTF deployments, amnestic waves, PR work and legal mitigation.
unauthorised access / inspection small media leak need for extra amnestic administrations
🚨 Major Breach $12.5M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Significant exposure or severe damage (large media scrutiny, multiple independent publications, or environmental incident) requiring major emergency response, extended deployments, litigation reserve drawdown and large PR operations.
widespread academic publication/public exposure large-scale breach or hazardous event major litigation or regulatory action
👥 Personnel 19 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 10 [#3, #4] Multi-shift on-site guards supplemented by rapid-reaction teams for perimeter enforcement and initial response.
Research Scientist 6 [#12, #13, #14, #24] Geologists, volcanologists and lab technicians conducting ongoing research, sampling campaigns and containment feasibility studies.
Engineer / Maintenance 1 [#5, #11, #30] Vehicle/generator/communications maintenance and field equipment upkeep.
Administrative Staff 1 [#19, #21] Local-liaison, logistics admin and legal/contract coordination supporting cover-story and payments.
Medical Officer 1 [#20] Medical staff to administer amnestics, monitor patients and manage medical QA for the amnestic program.
Drone/Telemetry Technician 2 [#7, #8, #29] UAV pilots, sensor technicians and secure communications operators maintaining persistent remote surveillance.
Logistics / Field Coordinator 2 [#5, #10, #16] Field camp operations, transport coordination, sample chain-of-custody and camp supply management.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line-item ranges and plausible mid-range estimates, but many items (fence length, campaign frequency, drill needs, and exposure frequency) are uncertain and ranges are large; medium confidence reflects that.
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