SCP-7502 — SCP-7502 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-7502 Unknown ~ medium confidence

SCP-7502

Expected annual

$23.7M

One-time setup

$431.6M

Annual recurring

$20.2M

Personnel

Large upfront capital (hundreds of millions) is required, dominated by deep shaft construction and a catastrophic contingency reserve; recurring annual operations (~$20M/yr) are driven by staff wages, shaft/facility maintenance, and joint National Guard collaboration.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $431.6M

Catastrophic Reserve $200.0M

[#20] Catastrophic contingency / compensation reserve for large-scale seismic remediation and liabilities.

Deep Shaft Construction $175.0M

[#3] Manned access shaft/elevator engineering and sinking or reconditioning to ~3 km (primary capital driver).

Equipment $11.1M

[#6,#8,#9,#12,#18,#23] ROVs and launch systems (#6), sensor/monitoring installs (#8), power infrastructure (#9), site vehicles and tactical assets (#12), medical clinic equipment (#18), secure communications hardware (#23).

Borehole Stabilization $11.0M

[#5] High-temperature/pressure-rated casing, grout, reinforcements and specialized tooling for deep-fault stabilization.

Decommissioning Fund $11.0M

[#28] One-time reserved fund for planned decommissioning, shaft sealing and final remediation.

Facilities $7.5M

[#2] Secure surface compound construction (administration, labs, dorms, fencing, helipad, CCTV).

Initial Research And Lab Setup $3.8M

[#7,#17] Onsite wet labs, containment cabinets, analytical instruments (#7) and secure sample storage/vaults (#17).

Land And Permitting $3.0M

[#1] Land access, permits, subsurface rights, and park compensation / stakeholder payments (one-time purchase/setup).

Insurance Setup $2.8M

[#27] One-time setup/capitalization of captive insurance or risk-financing vehicle.

Environmental Remediation Setup $1.8M

[#21] Initial environmental restoration planning and mitigations for national park impacts.

Misc One Time Contingency $1.0M

[#29] One-time slush fund for unforeseen anomalous technical development/initial replacements.

National Guard Support $600K

[#11] One-time equipment/support for Latvian National Guard collaboration (vehicles, allowances, initial integration).

Specialized Research Program Setup $600K

[#16] Initial setup for thaumaturgy/anomalous physics research program and secure experimental facilities.

Emergency Staging $600K

[#19] One-time set-aside for short-term staging, evacuation infrastructure and temporary shelters.

Influence And Retention Setup $600K

[#26] One-time buy-ins, settlements and retention payments to cooperating academics / institutions.

Legal And Liaison Setup $500K

[#14] One-time legal negotiation/setup, contracts with park authority and ministries.

Logistics Setup $300K

[#22] One-time contracting/setup for helicopter/charter logistics and heavy-lift arrangements.

Personnel Training Setup $250K

[#24] One-time training program setup and initial PPE procurement.

Staff Recruitment $200K

[#15] One-time recruitment and onboarding costs for research staff.

Cover Story Campaign $125K

[#13] Initial public operations/cover story campaign and media management setup.

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $20.2M/yr

Staff Wages $5.7M/yr

[#10,#15,#18] Onsite security rotations and loaded costs (#10), core research/technician salaries (#15), medical staffing and medevac retainer (#18).

Facilities Maintenance $3.8M/yr

[#2,#4,#1,#9] Surface facility maintenance/utilities/insurance (#2), shaft/elevator ongoing maintenance and certifications (#4), ongoing land lease/permit/community payments (#1), site energy and fuel costs (#9).

National Guard Collaboration $2.2M/yr

[#11] Reimbursements, allowances, equipment provisioning and possible continuous detachment costs for Latvian National Guard collaboration.

Research And Monitoring $2.0M/yr

[#8,#21,#16,#19] Sensor network monitoring and telemetry staffing/comms (#8), environmental monitoring and mitigation (#21), ongoing specialized thaumaturgy/anomalous research budget (#16), emergency response planning/drills (#19).

Supplies And Consumables $1.4M/yr

[#5,#6,#7,#12,#17] Borehole consumables and repairs (#5), ROV/launch spare parts (#6), lab consumables and calibration (#7), vehicle fuel/maintenance (#12), sample handling consumables (#17).

Logistics And Transport $1.2M/yr

[#22] Recurring transport of supplies, personnel rotations, heavy-lift charters/helicopter support and convoy costs.

Insurance And Risk Financing $1.1M/yr

[#27] Recurring insurance premiums, captive insurance funding and retained operational risk financing.

Cover Story And Legal $900K/yr

[#13,#14] Ongoing public operations/PR and crisis communications (#13) plus legal retainers and governmental liaison (#14).

Administrative Overhead $600K/yr

[#25] Ongoing accounting, HR, travel, insurance administration, security clearances and general site management overhead.

Misc Recurring Contingency $500K/yr

[#29] Ongoing small contingency budget for unforeseen anomalous-related replacements and technical development.

Influence And Retention Recurring $400K/yr

[#26] Ongoing grants, consulting payments and gag/retention stipends to cooperating scientists/institutions.

Communications Security $125K/yr

[#23] Recurring secure bandwidth, encrypted link maintenance, backups and data integrity services.

Training And Certifications $125K/yr

[#24] Recurring training cycles, certifications, PPE replacement and rescue drills.

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $20.2M/yr

82.0% probability / year

Normal, uneventful year with routine operations, maintenance and research.

normal_operations scheduled_maintenance routine_research_cycles

🚨 Minor Incident $23.2M/yr

15.0% probability / year +$3.0M vs baseline

Localized equipment failure or minor shaft incident requiring emergency response, repairs and temporary research pause.

equipment_failure small_shaft_repair localized_environmental_release

🚨 Major Breach $170.2M/yr

2.0% probability / year +$150.0M vs baseline

Severe destabilization of the liquimorph or significant shaft failure causing extensive infrastructure damage and large compensation/liability exposure.

shaft_damage liquimorph_destabilization seismic_compensation_liability

🚨 Political Exposure $25.2M/yr

1.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline

Public exposure or legal/political escalation forcing large PR/legal expenditures, operational restrictions and potential compensation.

media_leak government_inquiry litigation

👥 Personnel 53 total

Role	Count	Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent	18	Dedicated site security and rapid-response teams; rotation to provide 24/7 coverage. Mapped to security wages [#10].
Research Scientist	20	Core multidisciplinary research staff (geology, biology, anomalous physics/thaumaturgy). Mapped to research salaries [#15].
Technician / Lab Technician	6	Lab and ROV technicians, sample handling and instrument maintenance; included in research/headcount estimates [#7,#6].
Engineer / Maintenance	4	Civil/mechanical engineers for shaft and lift maintenance, power systems and heavy equipment upkeep. Mapped to shaft maintenance and facilities [#3,#4].
Medical Officer	2	Onsite medical staffing and medevac coordination; mapped to medical recurring costs [#18].
Administrative Staff	3	Site management, HR, accounting and liaison functions; mapped to administrative overhead [#25].

📋 Confidence Notes

Line-item ranges are drawn from analyst estimates; major uncertainties remain around the choice of shaft construction method and the size of catastrophic liabilities, which dominate one-time capital needs. Recurring operational estimates are better constrained but still depend on decisions about scale of National Guard collaboration and research ambition.

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