SCP-7687 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-7687
Expected annual
$31.1M
One-time setup
$12.8M
Annual recurring
$30.5M
Personnel
87
Estimated upfront program capital is ~$12.8M with annual operating costs ~ $30.5M. Major recurring cost drivers are staff wages, ongoing research/drug trials, secrecy/PR and legal operations, and patient care/surveillance.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $12.8M
Facilities $2.6M
[#1] Secure quarantine isolation ward leasing/retrofit for three regional sites (negative-pressure HVAC, CCTV, anterooms).
Incinerator Purchase $2.2M
[#3] Onsite medical-waste incinerators (purchase for regional sites, midpoint of $250k–$1.2M each aggregated for 3 sites).
Ophthalmic Or Setup $1.4M
[#5] Microsurgical microscopes, phaco/eye surgery instruments and sterile OR outfitting (three ORs / program-level).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.2M
[#13] BSL-2/3 lab outfitting and core research-capable infrastructure (bench, biosafety, basic instruments).
Sem Tem Purchase $1.2M
[#14] Purchase of SEM/TEM instruments (program purchase option, midpoint of $0.5M–$2M).
Rapid Response Units $1.2M
[#25] Purchase/kit-out of deployable mobile containment units (two units / program-level, midpoint).
Screening Setup $1.0M
[#11] Initial setup costs for a targeted screening program (kits, field team equip, baseline cohort screening startup).
Diagnostic Test Development $875K
[#10] Assay development and validation costs (PCR/antibody/optical assay development, regulatory/validation).
Secure Transport Vehicles $300K
[#18] Purchase of specialized ambulances / secure transport units (two modest vehicles or program equivalent).
Secure It Setup $300K
[#20] Secure servers, encrypted communications, classified-records infrastructure one-time buildout.
Cryogenic Freezers And Backup $140K
[#19] Ultra-low freezers plus UPS/backup generator for biobanking.
Security Hardware $125K
[#9] One-time secure doors, locks, CCTV and access control installation.
Training Initial $120K
[#24] Initial SOP development and site training/drills across sites (midpoint).
Equipment $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $30.5M/yr
Staff Wages $7.8M/yr
[#7, #8, #9, #12, #25] Salaries for clinical specialists (ophthalmologists/anesthesiology/ID), nursing and infection-control staff, lab techs, security guards and epidemiology/contact-tracing personnel and on-call rapid-response staffing aggregated for program.
Contingency Reserve $6.1M/yr
[#30] Reserve (25% of baseline annual operating budget) for unexpected escalation, legal exposure, or rapid scale-up.
Cover Story And Legal $3.6M/yr
[#21, #22] Public relations, cover stories, legal counsel and diplomatic/regulatory liaison across multiple countries (PR + legal combined).
Drug Trials Program $3.0M/yr
[#15] Ongoing drug-discovery and clinical trial-related expenditures (screening, pilot trials, monitoring).
Research And Monitoring $2.5M/yr
[#13] Ongoing core research program funding (lab experiments, sequencing, culture work, personnel not included in staff_wages).
Long Term Patient Care $2.0M/yr
[#16] Ongoing institutional/medical care for patients pending cure (estimated for program scale; per-patient costs noted in source).
Screening Program $1.0M/yr
[#11] Ongoing targeted surveillance/screening in metro populations (periodic cohorts, lab processing).
Surgical Procedures $950K/yr
[#6] Aggregate cost of invasive lacrimal surgeries (assumed ~50 procedures/yr at midpoint $8k–$30k).
Facilities Maintenance $540K/yr
[#2] Ongoing utilities, HVAC/HEPA power, maintenance, housekeeping and waste handling for three sites.
Diagnostic Tests Consumables $500K/yr
[#10] Per-test consumables and production costs after assay development (routine diagnostics and confirmatory testing).
Patient Compensation $500K/yr
[#28] Compensation, relocation and incentives for participants and quarantined patients (program-wide budget).
Logistics And Transport $300K/yr
[#18] Per-transfer and vehicle operations (secure couriers, containment carriers, international permits).
Psychological Support $300K/yr
[#17] Counseling, social support, reintegration and legal/consent support programs for patients.
Insurance $300K/yr
[#23] Liability and professional insurance for staff and facilities.
Decontamination And Decommissioning Fund $275K/yr
[#26] Annual contingency fund to cover occasional large-scale decontamination or short-term shutdown costs.
Monitoring And Environmental Surveillance $275K/yr
[#29] Environmental sampling, wastewater surveillance and public-transport sampling programs.
Data Security And Classified Records $250K/yr
[#20] Recurring hosting, maintenance, clearance processing and secure-records handling costs.
Outsourced Specialty Services $100K/yr
[#27] Annual budget for outsourced SEM/TEM, sequencing and specialty assays to reduce capital expense.
Outsourced Imaging $50K/yr
[#14] Outsourced SEM/TEM sessions as needed (alternative to purchase).
Supplies And Consumables $30K/yr
[#4] Sterile paper towels, PPE, disinfectants for baseline patient load (20-patient reference scale used in notes).
Incineration Contract $30K/yr
[#3] Contracted medical-waste disposal option (per-kg charges aggregated for routine waste if not using onsite incinerator).
Training Recurring $30K/yr
[#24] Annual refresher training and drills across sites.
Cold Storage Maintenance $12K/yr
[#19] Running costs and power for cryogenic freezers and backups.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $30.5M/yr
77.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with no major incidents; routine surveillance, research, patient care and secrecy operations continue.
steady_case_load routine_research_and_surveillance no major breaches
🚨 Minor Incident $32.0M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$1.5M vs baseline
Localized spike in cases requiring surge deployment of field units, extra patient transfers, additional surgeries and short-term PR/legal actions.
localized outbreak increased hospitalizations temporary surge staffing
🚨 Major Breach $36.3M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$5.8M vs baseline
Containment site compromise requiring large-scale decontamination, rebuild, extended legal/compensation payouts and major PR response.
site compromise public exposure/leak full decontamination and rebuild
🚨 Research Breakthrough Requiring Scale Up $35.5M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Successful therapeutic breakthrough triggers rapid scale-up of trials, manufacturing, and expanded research teams.
promising therapeutic candidate expanded clinical trials manufacturing scale-up
👥 Personnel 87 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 0 [] Research scientists and core R&D staff costs are included under research_and_monitoring; headcount funded via that budget rather than staff_wages here.
Clinical Specialist (Ophthalmologist/Anesthesiologist/ID Physician) 9 [#7] Program-level clinical specialist staffing across three regions (aggregated full-time equivalents).
Nursing / Lab Technician / Infection-Control Staff 45 [#8] Nursing staff, ophthalmic techs and microbiology lab techs with containment training across sites.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 9 [#9] Armed/unarmed guards and access-control officers distributed across sites (salaries included in staff_wages).
Epidemiologist / Contact Tracer 12 [#12] Regional epidemiology and contact-tracing teams (aggregated FTEs included in staff_wages).
Rapid-Response Personnel (mobile containment) 6 [#25] On-call staff for deployable units and surge responses (included in staff_wages).
Administrative Staff / Site Managers 6 [#20, #21] Administrative, logistic and liaison staff supporting program operations (included in staff_wages).
📋 Confidence Notes
Line-item ranges are provided in analyst notes and many costs (facility retrofits, salaries, PR/legal) are well-bounded; however key epidemiological unknowns (transmission, prevalence) and R&D uncertainty mean scenario probabilities and scale choices are approximate, producing moderate confidence in the totals.
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