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SCP-7758 Keter ? low confidence
SCP-7758
Expected annual
$284.9M
One-time setup
$100.2M
Annual recurring
$274.5M
Personnel
250
One-time capital outlays (regional facilities, retrofitted residential medical rooms, initial capital reserve) are roughly $100M; annual program operations dominated by per-case medical, nursing, and security costs scale with caseload, producing recurring costs of about $274.5M/yr under a moderate case rate assumption.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $100.2M
Initial Capital Outlay $50.0M
[#25] Additional illustrative initial capital outlay (covers other facility/equipment startup not itemized above; mid-range of analyst summary estimate).
Facilities $33.9M
[#4, #5] Cost to retrofit ~20 standardized residential medical rooms and to build several Foundation-run regional obstetric/surgical facilities (mid-range build estimate used).
Reserve Fund $10.0M
[#22] One-time contingency reserve fund (standing reserve) for settlements, whistleblower payouts, and other emergency legal contingencies.
Equipment $4.0M
[#2, #3, #6, #19] One-time IT/build costs for the watch center, initial covert-surveillance equipment purchase, purchase of response vehicles fleet, and specimen-storage equipment.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $2.1M
[#11, #16] Research-grade lab buildout and specialty imaging/histology equipment to support mechanism studies and forensic analysis.
Training Curriculum Development $150K
[#20] One-time development of training curricula, medical-restraint protocol design, and simulation materials.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $274.5M/yr
Per Case Security Costs $90.0M/yr
[#9, #24] Per-case physical security staffing (24/7) to enforce quarantine/cover story and manage transports; aggregated across baseline caseload.
Per Case Nursing Costs $75.0M/yr
[#8, #24] Continuous bedside nursing and attendant care during ~21-day containments; aggregated per-case nursing costs multiplied by baseline case volume assumption.
Staff Wages $21.2M/yr
[#1, #7] Salaries/benefits for nationwide monitoring program staff (field teams, state liaisons) and annual on-call physician/retainer network; mid-range staffing assumption (~200–300 FTE covered).
Per Case Contact Tracing Surge $20.0M/yr
[#17, #24] Per-case rapid forensic epidemiology/contact-tracing surge costs aggregated for baseline caseload; supplements core contact-tracing capacity.
Per Case Custody And Initial Placement $15.0M/yr
[#13, #24] Initial custody, social work, legal work and temporary placement costs per infant aggregated across baseline caseload.
Per Case Medical Costs $13.0M/yr
[#10, #11, #12, #24] Per-case consumables, diagnostics/imaging, and secure remains handling (cremation) aggregated for baseline caseload.
Logistics And Transport $12.3M/yr
[#6, #21] Vehicle operations/maintenance, transport program reserves, and per-transport operational costs aggregated for baseline caseload.
Supplies And Consumables $6.0M/yr
[#3, #10] Recurring consumables (medications, IV fluids, disposables for fetal monitoring and PPE) aggregated across baseline caseload; surveillance hardware subscriptions excluded (listed separately).
Cover Story And Legal $5.0M/yr
[#14, #15] Annual legal/PR budget and payments/hush incentives to cooperating clinics and staff (operational legal retainer and routine cover expenditures).
Long Term Child Support $5.0M/yr
[#13, #18] Ongoing developmental/mental-health monitoring and services for exposed infants (annual cohort support and therapy budgets).
Research And Monitoring $4.8M/yr
[#2, #11, #16, #17, #19] Research program operations, imaging service contracts, core forensic-epidemiology capacity and specimen operations (ongoing R&D and monitoring overhead).
Regional Facility Retainers $2.0M/yr
[#5] Contract retainer costs for civilian hospitals or regional facility agreements when preferred over Foundation-built sites.
Watch Center Operations $1.5M/yr
[#2] Recurring hosting, analyst salaries, software licensing, and operations for centralized analysis & watch center.
Reserve Replenishment $1.5M/yr
[#22] Annual replenishment of the settlements/indemnity reserve fund.
Surveillance Subscriptions $1.2M/yr
[#3] Recurring subscriptions for OSINT, social-media monitoring, VPNs, and paid informant stipends at CPCs/clinics.
Facilities Maintenance $500K/yr
[#6, #23] Ongoing maintenance, HVAC/retrofit upkeep and small facility repairs for containment rooms and regional sites.
Training And Drills $300K/yr
[#20] Annual training, simulations, and protocol refreshers for medical staff, security, and legal teams.
Specimen Storage Operations $125K/yr
[#19] Ongoing freezer space, biosecurity, and specialized disposal operations for calcified tissue and specimens.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $274.5M/yr
80.0% probability / year
Normal year at baseline caseload and routine operations with no major public exposures or systemic surges.
routine case volume (~1,000/yr) no major legal/public exposure standard retention of contracts and staff
🚨 Minor Incident $279.5M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Localized legal/PR incident or single high-profile case requiring elevated legal defense and emergency support.
single publicized exposure state-level litigation or inquiry
🚨 Major Breach $424.5M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$150.0M vs baseline
Widespread political/legal exposure leading to national litigation, large settlements, major PR campaign, and emergency containment scaling.
national media exposure multi-state litigation or coordinated whistleblower suits
🚨 High Case Volume $497.5M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$223.0M vs baseline
Sustained surge in manifestations and denials of care (e.g., policy changes) doubling annual case load toward the analyst's high-activity end (≈2,000 cases/yr).
policy restrictions increasing case frequency multi-state surge in denials of abortion care
👥 Personnel 250 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 80 [#9, #1] Full-time security staff for monitoring program and site security (does not include per-case contracted guards counted in per-case security costs).
Field Agent / Monitor 80 [#1] State-level field agents and liaisons conducting clinic/CPC monitoring and initial interventions.
Research Scientist 20 [#11, #16] Pathology, molecular biology, and epidemiology staff supporting research programs.
Medical Liaison / Nurse Coordinator 15 [#1, #7, #8] Oversees medical containment coordination and manages on-call physician network (does not include surge bedside nursing hours paid per case).
Legal Liaison / Counsel 15 [#1, #14] State legal liaisons and counsel coordinating emergency orders, subpoenas, and cover/legal strategy.
Analyst / Watch Center Staff 20 [#2] Centralized analysis and watch center analysts for data ingestion, triage, and case coordination.
Administrative Staff 10 [#1] Program admin, HR, and finance supporting nationwide operations.
Site Director / Executive Staff 5 [#1] Program leadership and executive oversight.
Engineer / Maintenance 5 [#23] Technical staff for HVAC, power, and facility maintenance of containment rooms and regional sites.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are order-of-magnitude with large sensitivity to assumed annual case volume, political/legal volatility, and choices between contracting hospitals vs. building Foundation facilities; incomplete data on true manifestation rate reduces confidence.
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