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SCP-7815 Keter ? low confidence
SCP-7815
Expected annual
$16.9M
One-time setup
$62.7M
Annual recurring
$16.1M
Personnel
28
First-year capital and setup costs are dominated by laboratory buildout, core analytical equipment and a large contingency reserve (total one-time ~62.7M). Annual operations (baseline, one patient under continuous ICU care with moderate R&D) are roughly $16.1M/yr, driven mainly by ICU operation, ongoing therapeutic R&D, and dedicated medical/security staffing.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $62.7M
Contingency Reserve $55.0M
[#25] Recommended contingency/reserve pool to allow rapid escalation (recommended $10M–$100M); midpoint used here ($55,000,000) as an immediately-available rapid-response reserve.
Equipment $3.4M
[#5, #14] Core analytical capital (high-throughput sequencer, MS, flow cytometer, confocal, -80C freezers, cryostorage) (~$3,250,000) plus secure sample storage equipment (-80 freezers/LN2 dewars) one-time purchase (~$112,500).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $2.8M
[#4, #8] Molecular/genetics lab buildout and BSL-2+/3 upgrades (~$1,500,000) plus specialized chemistry/synthesis setup for anomalous nucleotides (~$1,250,000 one-time).
Facilities $950K
[#1, #17, #18] One-time retrofit of secure negative-pressure ICU isolation room(s) and structural/security upgrades including containment-grade access/locks and one-time generator/UPS capacity upgrades. Sum of isolation retrofit (~$375k), one-time security/electronics upgrades (~$275k), and generator/UPS (~$300k).
Animal Model Development $600K
[#9] One-time model development (transgenic lines/xenografts, initial containment modifications) estimated at ~$600,000 (midpoint of $200k–$1M).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $16.1M/yr
Therapeutic Development Program $10.0M/yr
[#10, #27] Annualized funding for multi-year medicinal chemistry / gene-therapy / antisense development program; represents a moderate institutional commitment (annualized portion of multi-year program; range is very wide).
Icu Operation Per Patient $1.5M/yr
[#2] Continuous ICU-level operation for one SCP-7815 patient including ventilator consumables, TPN/IV, daily imaging/labs, disposables, dialysis as-needed; midpoint of $1M–$2M per patient-year.
Staff Wages $1.2M/yr
[#3] Dedicated medical staffing (rotating ICU physicians/attendings, intensivist coverage, nurses, respiratory therapists, pharmacists, palliative care, bioethicist) annual midpoint estimate.
Security Personnel $900K/yr
[#17] Recurring personnel costs for armed guards and security staffing (midpoint estimate of $300k–$1.5M).
Research And Monitoring $668K/yr
[#6, #7, #24] Ongoing molecular/ proteomics consumables and sequencing (~$300k/yr), bioinformatics/storage/compute (~$325k/yr), and average necropsy/research per-case allocation (~$42,500/yr).
Animal Facility Maintenance $500K/yr
[#9] Recurring animal facility costs for maintaining transgenic/xenograft lines and containment; midpoint of $200k–$800k/yr.
It Security $300K/yr
[#19] IT security, classified data management, air-gapped backups and insider-threat mitigation; annual midpoint.
Cover Story And Legal $275K/yr
[#20] Annual legal/coverup/public-relations budget midpoint for plausible record fabrication, front companies, and legal contingencies.
Ethics And Oversight $188K/yr
[#21] Ethics board and oversight committee salaries/administration; midpoint of $75k–$300k.
Training And Hazard Pay $150K/yr
[#22] SOP development, staff training, drills, and hazard-pay premiums; annual midpoint.
Logistics And Transport $105K/yr
[#16] Secure HAZMAT-capable transport, refrigerated courier and occasional airlift capacity; annual midpoint estimate.
Facilities Maintenance $100K/yr
[#18, #14] Recurring generator/UPS fuel and maintenance (~$85k) plus biobank LN2/electricity/maintenance (~$15k) annual costs.
Psychological Support $88K/yr
[#23] Counseling and therapy programs for long-term staff and affected families; midpoint of $25k–$150k.
Decontamination Waste Handling $85K/yr
[#15] Annual contracted infectious-waste handling and containment disposal (midpoint $20k–$150k). Per-decedent costs are case-by-case.
Supplies And Consumables $0/yr
[]
Human Trials Fund $0/yr
[#11] Human treatment trials / compassionate-use resources are project-based; no active trial baseline (costs per trial $500k–$5M). Set to $0 in baseline.
Amnestic Program $0/yr
[#12] Amnestic manufacture/distribution per release is per-subject and not part of baseline steady-state for a single contained patient; per-release costs $20k–$200k.
Post Release Support $0/yr
[#13] Post-release cover, relocation and 3-month monitoring costs are per-release and not included in baseline (per-release $10k–$75k).
Estimated Total First Year Per Patient $0/yr
[#26] Aggregate estimate noted in analyst notes ($1.5M–$4.0M per patient-year) — components are separately accounted for above; set to $0 here to avoid double-counting.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $16.1M/yr
88.0% probability / year
Normal, uneventful year with containment of one SCP-7815 patient, moderate ongoing R&D and no releases or large-scale incidents.
single_contained_patient routine_monitoring_and_research
🚨 Minor Incident $17.0M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$900K vs baseline
Isolated adverse event (urgent deterioration, emergency airlift or unexpected death) requiring emergency transport, additional necropsy/decontamination, and short-term legal/PR and staffing overtime.
unexpected_patient_deterioration urgent_airlift_or_transfer single_additional_necropsy
🚨 Outbreak 10 Patients $51.5M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$35.5M vs baseline
Moderate outbreak producing ~10 concurrent SCP-7815 patients, requiring rapid expansion of ICU capacity, large increases in consumables/staffing and emergency R&D acceleration.
multiple_concurrent_infections rapid_case_increase mass_hospitalization
👥 Personnel 28 total
Role Count Notes
ICU Nurse 5 [#3] 4–6 FTE nurses per patient on rotation; baseline uses 5 nurses.
ICU Physician / Intensivist 2 [#3] Rotating attendings and intensivist coverage.
Respiratory Therapist 1 [#3] Ventilator/respiratory support staff.
Clinical Pharmacist 1 [#3] Medication management for complex ICU regimens.
Research Scientist 4 [#4, #5, #8, #10] Molecular/genetics researchers running sequencing, proteomics and therapeutic R&D.
Laboratory Technician 3 [#4, #5, #6] Lab techs supporting high-throughput assays and consumable workflows.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 8 [#17] Armed guards and site security rotations to maintain Keter-class containment.
Engineer / Maintenance 1 [#18] Site engineering support for generators/UPS and life-support equipment maintenance.
IT Security 1 [#19] Secure data management, classified network and insider-threat mitigation.
Administrative Staff 1 [#21, #20] Administrative support for oversight, record-keeping and cover operations.
Palliative / Medical Support 1 [#3] Palliative care and medical oversight for end-of-life requests and ethical review.
📋 Confidence Notes
Wide cost ranges, uncertain incidence and unknowns in therapeutic timeline (many multi-year and scale-dependent items). Many estimates are midpoints and the object is anomalous/Keter-class; significant uncertainty remains regarding spread, per-patient resource consumption over time, and necessary scale of R&D, so confidence is low.
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