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SCP-7820 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-7820
Expected annual
$4.6M
One-time setup
$8.2M
Annual recurring
$4.2M
Personnel
6
One-time capital costs of roughly $8.2M (ROV/submersible purchases, lab/vault buildout, and one-time sensors/legal setup) with recurring annual operations of about $4.38M driven primarily by expedition operations (vessel charters, contractor operations), ROV maintenance/operation, staff wages, and a contingency/reserve.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $8.2M
Manned Submersible Purchase $5.0M
[#3] Purchase cost for a manned submersible (not required for baseline but included as purchase-option capital).
Equipment $1.8M
[#2] Purchase of high-end work-class ROV/AUV and support systems (purchase estimate).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $580K
[#6, #7] Controlled depressurization/climate chambers and conservation lab setup (capital + installation).
Facilities $175K
[#8] Vault build-out and physical secure storage build-out (climate control, access control, CCTV).
Recovery Handling Equipment $175K
[#5] Cranes, grippers, soft-lift bags, inert packaging and other recovery hardware.
Decommissioning $150K
[#25] One-time decommissioning / long-term preservation setup costs (if decided).
Legal Initial $150K
[#14] Initial legal/diplomatic/permitting negotiation costs and fees.
High Risk Study Startup $100K
[#24] One-time startup costs for specialized high-risk studies / biosafety upgrades (project-dependent).
Digitization Hardware $60K
[#19] One-time digitization hardware (3D scanners, high-res imaging).
Backup Power And Ups $30K
[#12] Generator/UPS capital for critical lab/vault systems.
Seafloor Sensor Deployment $25K
[#13] One-time deployment costs for seafloor/acoustic sensors.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $4.2M/yr
Expedition Operations $1.4M/yr
[#1, #4, #11] Annualized expedition operations (vessel charter for one expedition per year, expedition-specific personnel costs, helicopter/transfers and expedition logistics).
Staff Wages $605K/yr
[#4, #10] Full-time core staff (archaeologists, conservator(s), lab technician) and specialist conservation personnel salaries, benefits, per-diems.
Contingency Reserve $500K/yr
[#18] Annual allocation to a rapid-response / salvage contingency reserve recommended for emergency retrievals or legal action.
Rov Operation And Maintenance $375K/yr
[#2] Annual ROV/AUV operation costs, per-expedition lease/operation and annual maintenance (~10–20% of purchase).
Manned Submersible Charter $250K/yr
[#3] Occasional charter/saturation team costs if used (per-expedition charter averaged over years).
Cover Story And Legal $150K/yr
[#14, #15] Ongoing legal/liaison expenses, diplomatic costs, cover-story production, PR and information-security budgets.
Facility Depreciation Overhead $150K/yr
[#23] Depreciation, rent-equivalent, HR, accounting, procurement and administrative overhead allocated to program.
High Risk Specialized Studies $150K/yr
[#24] Ongoing specialized project budgets for paleogenomics, mass-spec campaigns, high-depth sequencing and biosafety costs.
Research And Monitoring $120K/yr
[#9] Analytical budgets (radiocarbon, aDNA, isotopes, SEM/EDS, CT scanning) and routine sample analyses.
Logistics And Transport $100K/yr
[#11] Ongoing transport logistics (port-to-lab moves, secure freight, routine transfer costs outside major expeditions).
Insurance And Liability $80K/yr
[#16] Annual marine salvage liability, environmental and contractor insurance premiums or internal reserves.
Outreach And Collaboration $75K/yr
[#21] Managed collaborations, sponsored publications and controlled research grants supporting cover/scientific liaison.
Supplies And Consumables $60K/yr
[#5, #7, #22] Per-expedition consumables, conservation chemicals, lab consumables, packing materials, replacement parts, PPE.
Facilities Maintenance $40K/yr
[#8, #12] Annual utilities, climate-control maintenance, fire suppression, backup generator/UPS servicing and site security utilities.
Long Term Monitoring And Sensors $40K/yr
[#13] Satellite/AIS monitoring subscriptions and recurring sensor maintenance / data costs.
Archival And Curation $30K/yr
[#19] Staff time, cloud storage, database maintenance, 3D model storage and curation costs.
Environmental Mitigation $30K/yr
[#20] Ongoing environmental compliance costs and mitigation measures per expedition.
Training And Safety $25K/yr
[#17] Certification and refresher training for polar ops, ROV, diving safety, aDNA clean-lab protocols.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $4.2M/yr
85.0% probability / year
Normal year with one expedition, routine monitoring, full-time core staff and regular maintenance; no major incidents or scale-ups.
one scheduled expedition routine analysis and monitoring no emergency retrievals
🚨 Minor Incident $5.6M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$1.4M vs baseline
Localized unauthorized salvage or commercial interest requiring an emergency charter, legal response and PR mitigation.
discovered by commercial research vessel small-scale unauthorized recovery localized legal/PR response
🚨 Major Breach $7.9M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$3.7M vs baseline
Significant unauthorized retrieval or international dispute requiring multi-million-dollar emergency salvage, legal battle and diplomatic response.
large-scale commercial/foreign-state recovery international diplomatic/legal action multi-asset emergency response
🚨 Research Breakthrough Requiring Scale Up $10.9M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$6.7M vs baseline
Major scientific breakthrough (viable ancient DNA or high-value anomalous artifact) prompting large-scale program expansion including capital purchases.
high-value paleogenomic finds urgent need to purchase specialized assets expanded R&D program demand
👥 Personnel 6 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist / Marine Archaeologist 2 [#4] Core archaeologists responsible for fieldwork, interpretation and project leadership.
Senior Conservator 1 [#10] Senior conservator for artifact stabilization and long-term treatment.
Conservation Technician 1 [#10] Technician supporting conservator tasks and accessioning.
Lab Technician / Analytical Technician 1 [#4, #9] Lab technician for sample prep, chamber operation and routine analyses.
Administrative Staff / Collection Manager 1 [#19, #23] Administrative/curation support, database management and procurement/HR liaison.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are based on analyst ranges supplied for expeditions, equipment and conservation work; logistical uncertainty (expedition frequency, charter costs, and international/legal outcomes) drives moderate uncertainty.
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