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SCP-785 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-785
Expected annual
$90.1M
One-time setup
$38.1M
Annual recurring
$76.3M
Personnel
38
Initial one-time setup and capital (Site-23 build-out, fleet, monitoring/software, lab tooling, and contingency reserve) are approximately $38.1M; ongoing annual operations are dominated by recurring per-incident containment costs (quarantine, amnestics, MTF deployments, disposal, media/legal), producing an expected annual budget on the order of $76.3M (baseline) and a long-run expected annual cost ≈ $90.1M given outbreak probabilities.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $38.1M
Contingency Reserve $30.0M
[#24] One-time recommended capital reserve to rapidly scale multi-site outbreak responses (midpoint of $10M–$50M).
Facilities $2.9M
[#12, #22] Site-23 containment module build-out (midpoint) and secure evidence/storage expansion (midpoint).
Indemnity Reserve $2.8M
[#21] One-time reserve for settlements/indemnities (midpoint of $500k–$5M).
Equipment $1.6M
[#1, #4, #11, #14] Automated monitoring software setup ($150k), MTF fleet outfitting ($1.2M), AR/ sensory-censor hardware initial purchase (~$190k midpoint), initial PPE stockpile ($100k).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $800K
[#7, #15] Secure synthesis/storage & lab production capability (midpoint) and initial chemical/metal analysis tooling (midpoint).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $76.3M/yr
Per Incident Quarantine Annual $36.0M/yr
[#5] Modeled as $3,000,000 per major urban incident × 12 incidents/year baseline (cordon, enforcement, overtime, contractors).
Per Incident Amnestic Program Annual $18.0M/yr
[#8] Modeled as ~$1,500,000 per incident × 12 incidents (mix of Class A/B dosing for medium-density quarantines; midpoint used).
Per Incident Media Ops Annual $4.8M/yr
[#9] Modeled as ~$400,000 per incident × 12 incidents for PR/cover-story deployment, takedowns, and map/listing edits.
Staff Wages $3.9M/yr
[#2, #3] 4 FTE analysts (~$360k) plus MTF Beta-3 readiness (personnel salaries, training, sustainment; subtotal ~$3.5M).
Per Incident Medical Forensic Annual $2.5M/yr
[#6] Modeled as ~$212,500 per incident × 12 incidents (triage, ambulances, forensics, mortuary handling).
Per Incident Buyouts Annual $1.8M/yr
[#10] Modeled as ~$150,000 per restaurant × 12 incidents for buyouts/compensation/forced closures (typical small eatery midpoint).
Per Incident Legal Ops Annual $1.8M/yr
[#20] Modeled as ~$150,000 per incident × 12 incidents for field legal operations, record changes, and liaison costs.
Per Incident Environmental Annual $1.7M/yr
[#19] Modeled as ~$140,000 per incident × 12 incidents for air/water monitoring, mitigation, and permit handling.
Per Incident Biohazard Disposal Annual $1.4M/yr
[#7] Modeled as ~$112,500 per event × 12 incidents for incineration/HAZMAT disposal consumables and hauling.
Per Incident Ppe Annual $1.1M/yr
[#14] Modeled as ~$87,500 per incident × 12 incidents for decon rentals/consumables and specialized PPE usage.
Facilities Maintenance $625K/yr
[#12, #22, #19] Site-23 operational support/utilities (midpoint), evidence storage operations (midpoint), annual compliance/team costs.
Internal Counterintelligence $500K/yr
[#18] Leak-investigation capability, audits, behavioral monitoring, investigations team, and emergency amnestics budget (midpoint).
Psychological Care And Indemnity $500K/yr
[#21] Ongoing counseling, witness-relocation readiness, and indemnity provisioning (operational annual allocation).
D Class Program $450K/yr
[#13] D-Class recruitment/health/security/consumable rotations (midpoint of $300k–$600k).
Research And Monitoring $420K/yr
[#1, #16, #17] Global business-registration monitoring hosting/data feeds ($60k/yr), long-term site surveillance (portfolio monitoring estimate), social-media monitoring baseline.
Cover Story And Legal $300K/yr
[#9, #20] Ongoing legal/liaison and PR baseline team to manage cover-story deployment and sustained government/LE coordination (fixed component).
Per Incident Logistics Annual $240K/yr
[#4] Modeled as ~$20,000 per deployment × 12 incidents for fuel, consumables, and vehicle maintenance per deployment.
Supplies And Consumables $150K/yr
[#14, #15] Ongoing PPE replenishment baseline and materials/tests (ongoing).
Training And Drills $150K/yr
[#23] Annual scenario drills, tabletop exercises, and equipment testing (midpoint).
Software Maintenance $100K/yr
[#11] Annual maintenance, updates, and audits for AR/sensory-censorship software and analyst dashboard.
Logistics And Transport $0/yr
[] Logistics per-deployment costs are modeled as per-incident recurring items below; no separate baseline logistics allocation.
Aggregate Budgeting Example $0/yr
[#25] Reference/assumptions from analyst aggregate example; not an additive cost line item here (used to validate ranges).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $76.3M/yr
85.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with the analyst-assumed cadence (~12 containment activations/year) and routine fixed costs.
~12 activations/year standard urban responses no simultaneous multi-city propagation
🚨 Major Outbreak $145.6M/yr
12.0% probability / year +$69.3M vs baseline
Year with substantially elevated activity (approx. double incidents, ~24 activations), requiring proportional scaling of per-incident operations.
rapid multi-site spread multiple urban-level quarantines increased MTF deployments
🚨 Catastrophic Propagation $258.0M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$181.6M vs baseline
Rare multi-city simultaneous propagation requiring mass mobilization, contingency reserve drawdown, and major legal/settlement actions.
widespread propagation in multiple dense population centers city-scale simultaneous quarantines major public/legal exposure requiring reserve usage
👥 Personnel 38 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 24 [#3] MTF Beta-3 operatives (breaching, quarantine enforcement, security; full-time readiness).
MTF Leader 1 [#3] Senior leader with specialized clearance (only leader knows full SCP-785-1 title).
Research Scientist 1 [#12] Overseeing Level 4 researcher responsible for experiments and interviews.
Analyst / Legal Ops 4 [#2] Dedicated analyst/legal operations team for triage, document requests, and coordination.
Medical Officer 3 [#6, #13] Medics for MTF deployments and Site-23 medical observation for D-Class; included in recurring staffing costs.
Engineer / Maintenance 2 [#4, #12] Vehicle/equipment maintenance, Site-23 systems (HVAC, negative-pressure, incineration line).
Administrative Staff 3 [#2, #20] Logistics, legal liaison, scheduling, and admin support for operations and PR/legal coordination.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates use midpoints and analyst-provided ranges; many major drivers (incident frequency, urban density, political/legal complexity, amnestic mix) are highly variable which limits precision. Core fixed costs are better defined (monitoring, MTF readiness, Site-23), while per-incident costs have wide ranges, so overall confidence is medium.
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