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SCP-7854 Uncontained ? low confidence
SCP-7854
Expected annual
$25.0M
One-time setup
$640.0M
Annual recurring
$12.2M
Personnel
24
One-time capital and contingency costs are dominated by potential retrieval missions and spacecraft; annual operations are driven by FAST operations, data analysis, legal/PR retainers and contingency for witness amnestics and rapid-response readiness.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $640.0M
Equipment $627.8M
[#11, #12, #13, #20] Computing/infrastructure setup (~$275,000), reconnaissance spacecraft (per mission, ~$27,500,000), full retrieval mission capability (~$600,000,000), decon trailers/equipment (~$50,000).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $6.2M
[#1, #14, #15] Class‑A amnestic program development/secure production (~$3,000,000), BSL‑3/4 lab build/upgrade (~$3,000,000), archaeological/metallurgical initial budget (~$175,000).
Reputation Reserve $5.0M
[#21] Institutional reputation/contingency reserve (selected moderate reserve ~$5,000,000).
Legal Settlements Hush Payments $300K
[#5] One‑time legal settlements/hush payments and family compensation (midpoint assumed ~$300,000).
Cover Story One Time Campaign $275K
[#3] One‑time cover story production and focused public affairs campaign (~$275,000 chosen midpoint).
Coverup Contingency Fund $275K
[#18] Liquid contingency to handle ad hoc payouts/bribes (~$275,000 midpoint).
Records Purge Forensics $110K
[#4] Digital forensics and records purge campaign (~$110,000 midpoint).
Facilities $60K
[#6, #16] Physical/structural work: FAST construction conditional (FAST exists in-article, so no build assumed -> $0) and physical security retrofit/installation (~$60k).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $12.2M/yr
Research And Monitoring $8.6M/yr
[#7, #8, #9, #10, #11, #15] FAST operations/ground infrastructure (non‑wage O&M ~ $8M), ground‑based telescope time (~$200k), commercial satellite tasking (~$300k), recurring cloud/compute (~$50k), archaeological annual program (~$50k).
Staff Wages $2.4M/yr
[#7, #8, #14, #16, #17] Salaries for FAST operations engineers/operators, dedicated data analysis team, BSL‑3/4 lab technical staff, on‑site security/MTF personnel and internal rapid‑response team (total estimated headcount and wages aggregated).
Bsl3 Operations $400K/yr
[#14] Recurring operating costs for BSL‑3/4 capability: consumables, certifications, maintenance and staff training (~$400k/yr).
Facilities Maintenance $300K/yr
[#7, #16, #20] Ground station/facility maintenance, security system monitoring and maintenance, decon equipment upkeep.
Cover Story And Legal $200K/yr
[#19] Annual retainer for legal counsel, lobbying and crisis PR (~$200,000/yr).
Rapid Response Equipment And Ops $200K/yr
[#17] Vehicles maintenance, training cycles, comms upkeep and field equipment replacement for rapid‑response/containment team (~$200k/yr).
Per Witness Amnestic Operations $150K/yr
[#2] Ongoing budget to cover occasional per‑witness amnestic administration, medical follow‑up and travel; baseline assumes small annual cohort exposure (~$150k/yr).
Supplies And Consumables $30K/yr
[#20] Decontamination consumables, PPE, sterilants and routine disposable supplies (~$30,000/yr).
Logistics And Transport $0/yr
[]
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $12.2M/yr
93.0% probability / year
Normal year with ongoing observation, FAST ops, data analysis, legal retainer, routine security and readiness; no major incidents.
no public exposure routine monitoring only
🚨 Minor Incident $13.6M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$1.3M vs baseline
Localized exposure or new witness cohort requiring amnestics, records purge, cover story, targeted forensics and limited legal payouts.
dozens of witnesses local media attention targeted forensic discovery
🚨 Major Retrieval Attempt $645.7M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$633.5M vs baseline
An active, funded retrieval campaign culminating in dedicated spacecraft missions (reconnaissance and capture) and major operational surge.
decision to attempt retrieval launch window permitting mission high institutional risk tolerance
👥 Personnel 24 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 8 [#16, #17] On‑site guards and response personnel for site security, escorts and field recovery.
Research Scientist 6 [#8, #15] Astrophysicists, orbital mechanics analysts and archaeometallurgists performing data analysis and artifact study.
Engineer / Maintenance 6 [#7, #12, #13] FAST ground station engineers, mission ops support and technical staff for spacecraft integration/maintenance.
Site Director / Executive Staff 1 [#19, #21] Program/site leadership and budgetary oversight; coordinates legal/PR and contingency reserves.
Medical Officer 1 [#2, #14, #20] Physician/medical staff overseeing amnestic administration follow‑up, BSL medical protocols and hazmat response coordination.
Administrative Staff 2 [#3, #4, #5, #19] Administrative support for records management, cover story coordination, contract administration and legal/PR liaison.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates use midpoints of wide ranges provided in analyst notes; SCP is uncontained and many large, conditional capital costs (missions, legal settlements, contingency reserves) introduce major uncertainty, so confidence is low.
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