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SCP-7857 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-7857
Expected annual
$11.3M
One-time setup
$23.0M
Annual recurring
$10.6M
Personnel
18
One-time establishment and R&D purchases are large (primarily research/R&D and contingency reserves), while annual operations are dominated by staff wages, logistics (weekly MTF deployments), research/monitoring, and international/liason/legal costs.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $23.0M
Contingency Reserve $10.0M
[#25] Contingency & escalation reserve for catastrophic scenarios (chosen mid-range of analyst guidance).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $6.2M
[#15, #23] Materials/reverse-engineering lab kit-out and an initial R&D/neutralization program (mid-range aggregated).
Insurance Reserve $3.0M
[#17] One-time reserve to hedge against large civil suits/exposure (mid-range).
Equipment $2.5M
[#4, #5, #9, #20, #22] Radar/tower/EOIR bundle, drone-capture fleet, industrial shredder/incinerator, communications/jamming hardware, and data-scanning/redaction hardware (aggregated midpoints).
Facilities $1.0M
[#6, #7, #16, #27] Initial perimeter/upgrades, evidence fit-out, hangar/warehouse fit, and generator purchase (mid-range estimates aggregated).
Transport Fleet $180K
[#3] Purchase of secure vans and rigid-hull boats (helicopter usage treated as recurring ops).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $10.6M/yr
Staff Wages $2.1M/yr
[#2, #10, #30, #11] Dedicated on-site rapid-response detachment, forensic/redaction specialists, program management/administration, and cyber staffing (aggregated fully-loaded salaries).
Research And Monitoring $1.8M/yr
[#4, #15, #11] Satellite tasking/subscriptions and research staff/consumables; includes some cyber/monitoring tooling where operationally required.
Logistics And Transport $1.6M/yr
[#1, #3, #8] Weekly MTF deployments (travel/per-diem/overtime), vehicle/boat ops & maintenance, routine helicopter charter baseline, and paper-retrieval team operations.
International Liaison And Covert Ops $1.5M/yr
[#29] Cross-border mitigation/covert operations when papers target foreign individuals (mid-range annualized estimate).
Witness Protection Fund $1.0M/yr
[#12] Annual baseline reserve for protecting/relocating/counseling targeted individuals (scales with number of targets; baseline assumes modest yearly demand).
Cover Story And Legal $775K/yr
[#13, #14] Legal retainers, public affairs/PR contracts, and formal liaison/cooperation expenses with local authorities (baseline formal cooperation).
Supplies And Consumables $310K/yr
[#7, #9, #22] Evidence handling supplies, incinerator/shredder operation & permits, and data-scanning/redaction consumables.
Insurance Premiums $300K/yr
[#17] Annual insurance/premiums for liability exposure (baseline premium estimate).
Media Monitoring $300K/yr
[#24] Ongoing media/Internet monitoring and rapid takedown operations.
Facilities Maintenance $230K/yr
[#6, #27] Routine perimeter maintenance, locksmith services, generator/test fuel and basic hangar upkeep.
Community Goodwill $200K/yr
[#26] Reimbursements and covert goodwill programs for impacted local businesses and fishermen.
Personnel Training $150K/yr
[#19] Ongoing training, rotations, simulations to enforce time limits and evidence procedures.
Medical Program $125K/yr
[#18] Medical monitoring, counseling, and related personnel wellness programs.
Communications Ops $125K/yr
[#20] Ongoing compliance/ops costs for any communications control equipment and legal compliance.
Archival Storage $60K/yr
[#28] Long-term secure evidence archival and legal retention storage costs.
Environmental Cleanup $30K/yr
[#21] Baseline annual expectation for occasional site remediation of contaminated public areas (per-incident costs averaged).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $10.6M/yr
80.0% probability / year
Normal year: routine monitoring, weekly visits, maintenance, and periodic retrievals with no large incidents.
weekly monitoring and maintenance routine paper-retrievals no major breach or mass dissemination
🚨 Minor Incident $11.1M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Localized public dispersal or a single SCP-7857-3 reaching a public destination requiring intensified retrievals, short-term witness protection, extra helicopter/tasking and legal work.
single craft reaches public area localized cleanup and limited witness protection short-term media/legal surge
🚨 Major Breach $13.6M/yr
4.0% probability / year +$3.0M vs baseline
Significant event with multiple public releases, large-scale retrievals, expanded witness protection, helicopter/rapid-response surge, and notable legal/diplomatic costs.
multiple SCP-7857-3 reach populated targets large witness protection cohort extended international liaison/legal actions
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $60.6M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline
Mass dissemination or coordinated releases causing widespread exposure, requiring emergency contingency spending, large-scale evacuations, major R&D escalation and legal settlements.
mass dissemination to many population centers international political exposure activation of contingency/escalation reserve
👥 Personnel 18 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 6 [#2] Dedicated on-site rapid-response detachment (local permanent personnel).
Forensic Document Examiner / Linguist / Psychologist 6 [#10] Forensic examination and redaction team (specialists counted within staff wages).
Cybersecurity Analyst 3 [#11] Digital monitoring & takedown operations (small cyber team).
Site Director / Executive Staff 2 [#30] Program director and senior management included in program overhead.
Administrative Staff 1 [#30] Procurement, compliance, and administrative support included in overhead.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed ranges for nearly every category but many line items are ranges and contingent (e.g., purchase vs lease, scale of witness protection, R&D program scope). The presence of operational uncertainty (weekly external MTF, international liaison, and potential for large-scale incidents) lowers precision to medium.
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