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SCP-7860 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-7860
Expected annual
$178.8M
One-time setup
$3.1B
Annual recurring
$170.0M
Personnel
48
Initial program buildout and hardware (Mars-capable tug, spares, launches, contingency fund) dominate one-time costs (~$3.06B). Annual operations are driven by mission operations, research, boarding/resupply missions, communications and cover-story/legal activities (~$170M/yr).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $3.1B
Equipment $1.1B
[#1, #17, #18] Primary FSS (tug) development/build and initial spares kit plus RPS/solar procurement for deep-space assets.
Contingency Emergency Fund $500.0M
[#7] Pre-funded rapid-response pool to underwrite an emergency mission on short notice.
Decommissioning Capability $500.0M
[#21] Development/purchase of systems for de-orbit/neutralization capability (kinetic interceptors, high-energy options) and associated political/diplomatic costs.
Launch Services $300.0M
[#2] Heavy-lift and cargo launches to inject FSS, fuel, and spare hardware to Mars orbit (1–3 launches assumed initially).
Endowment One Time $300.0M
[#20] Endowment to generate long-term perpetual income to stabilize recurring funding over decades.
Deep Space Relay Network $150.0M
[#5] Optional private deep-space relay/relay-satellite procurement and integration (alternative to paid DSN time).
Facilities $60.0M
[#4, #9, #22] Construction and fit-out for mission operations control, secure forensic lab space and storage/vaults; includes modest Site-301 expansions and simulation/training facilities.
Insurance Reserve One Time $50.0M
[#15] One-time capitalized reserve against catastrophic failure, third-party claims or expensive cleanup operations.
Initial Propellant $20.0M
[#3] Initial delivered propellant and delta-v margins to enable stationkeeping and initial rendezvous capability.
Legal Buyouts One Time $20.0M
[#12] One-time covert payments, buyouts or indemnities to smooth diplomatic/regulatory issues on discovery or launches.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $15.0M
[#10] Seed funding and lab buildout for initial reverse-engineering and specialized instrumentation.
Forensic Setup $10.0M
[#9] One-time setup for forensic/materials analysis labs, secure storage for recovered remains/artifacts and radiochemistry capabilities.
Media Campaign One Time $5.0M
[#13] One-time larger disinformation/cover campaigns or high-profile embargo efforts.
Cultural Setup One Time $5.0M
[#23] One-time creation of front organizations, shell companies and black-project infrastructure to obscure funding and operations.
Cyber Infra One Time $1.0M
[#11] Initial secure data/cyber infrastructure and archival provisioning (primary setup and backups).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $170.0M/yr
Boarding Missions $60.0M/yr
[#8] Expected recurring cost amortized for occasional robotic servicing/sample-return missions (assumes robotic mission ~300M every ~5 years as baseline).
Research And Monitoring $50.0M/yr
[#10] Ongoing laboratory research program, reverse-engineering teams, theoretical work, testbeds and research staff salaries.
Staff Wages $18.0M/yr
[#4, #22, #16] Salaries for mission operations (flight controllers, navigators), engineers, security and administrative staff supporting 24/7 operations.
Spares Replenishment $10.0M/yr
[#17] Annual replenishment of spare hardware and replacement kits to maintain FSS readiness.
Cover Story And Legal $5.0M/yr
[#12] Ongoing legal, covert liaison, intergovernmental negotiation costs and regulatory manipulation efforts.
Propellant Resupply $5.0M/yr
[#3] Recurring on-orbit propellant deliveries or fuel margins for stationkeeping and rendezvous over time.
Logistics And Transport $3.0M/yr
[#2, #8, #17] Coordination, ground transport, launch campaign support and recurring logistics for occasional resupply/boarding missions.
Facilities Maintenance $2.0M/yr
[#4, #5, #9] Maintenance, utilities and upkeep for ground facilities, vaults and relay ground stations.
Deep Space Comms $2.0M/yr
[#5] DSN time purchases or commercial relay bandwidth for telemetry/command and contingency uplinks.
Continuous Orbital Tracking $2.0M/yr
[#6] Dedicated orbital determination, observatory time reservations and data processing for drift detection and prediction.
Observatory Time $2.0M/yr
[#14] Modest recurring purchases of observing time, data buys, and payments to reduce civilian sighting risk.
Personnel Security $2.0M/yr
[#16] Vetting, secure travel/lodging and counter-intelligence to reduce leaks from personnel supporting Mars ops.
Media Control $1.5M/yr
[#13] Ongoing PR, disinformation budgets and sponsored research to divert civilian astronomy and public interest.
Containment Oversight $1.5M/yr
[#22] Program management, audits, travel, reporting and liaison across Foundation departments and external agencies.
Supplies And Consumables $1.0M/yr
[#8, #17] Non-propellant consumables for missions, spare-component use, and routine hardware consumables.
Forensic Operations $1.0M/yr
[#9] Ongoing forensic analysis, storage and radiological screening for any recovered material.
Insurance Premiums $1.0M/yr
[#15] Annual insurance/liability premiums and contingency coverage costs.
Energy Operations $1.0M/yr
[#18] Operations, replacements and minor procurements for RPS/solar arrays and power system maintenance.
Cultural Maintenance $1.0M/yr
[#23] Ongoing costs to maintain front organizations, shell companies and black project cover identities.
Secure Data Ops $500K/yr
[#11] Ongoing archival operations, backups and secure classified data handling.
Planetary Protection $500K/yr
[#19] Compliance-related monitoring, reporting and procedural costs (or covert alternatives as needed).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $170.0M/yr
83.0% probability / year
Normal year with routine monitoring, scheduled resupplies, occasional small maintenance and no major incidents.
routine_operations scheduled_resupply no_unplanned_anomalies
🚨 Minor Incident $175.0M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Small orbital drift or subsystem anomaly requiring unscheduled burns, extra DSN time, and modest mission operations overtime; no emergency launch.
small_orbital_drift software_or_autonomy_fault unplanned_burns
🚨 Major Incident $570.0M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$400.0M vs baseline
Significant orbital instability or imminent loss requiring rapid-response emergency mission, accelerated launch or use of contingency fund and major ops surge.
large_unexpected_orbit_decay collision_risk critical_system_failure
👥 Personnel 48 total
Role Count Notes
Flight Controllers / Mission Operations 20 [#4] 24/7 flight control, navigation and autonomy-management staff for FSS and orbit control.
Research Scientist 10 [#10] Scientists and engineers conducting reverse-engineering and analysis of SCP-7860-1; included in research program.
Engineer / Maintenance 6 [#1, #17, #18] Systems, spacecraft and ground-station engineers responsible for hardware and spares maintenance.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 6 [#16, #22] Security, vetting and counter-intelligence staff managing personnel risks and covert operations.
Administrative Staff 4 [#22, #12] Program management, legal liaison and administrative support for interagency coordination and cover logistics.
Medical Officer 2 [#9] Medical support for boarding missions, handling remains and health screenings for crewed operations.
📋 Confidence Notes
Reasonable technical detail is provided for space-operations cost drivers, allowing mid-confidence estimates; large ranges for spacecraft builds, political/cover costs and research escalation drive remaining uncertainty.
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