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SCP-7932 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-7932
Expected annual
$17.5M
One-time setup
$29.9M
Annual recurring
$17.1M
Personnel
52
Estimated one-time setup/capital costs are approximately $29.9M, driven by facility construction, contingency reserves, and initial countermeasure and containment R&D; recurring annual costs are approximately $17.085M, driven primarily by staff wages (AERO teams and embedded operatives), screening operations, settlement/insurance reserves, and administrative overhead.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $29.9M
Contingency Reserve $10.0M
[#16] Large contingency fund or equivalent insurance line to cover catastrophic breach cleanup and liabilities.
Facilities $8.0M
[#5] Construction and outfitting of a secure high-containment wing with redundant systems.
Settlement Fund Initial $5.0M
[#17] Initial reserve for hush payments, compensation, and emergency relocations.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $2.0M
[#7] BSL-3/4 lab upgrade and core wet-lab equipment (sequencers, cabinets, cryostorage, compute cluster baseline).
Equipment $1.4M
[#2, #4, #10, #14, #15] Secure case-logging development, armored/secure vans (4x$200k), secure transport crates, autoclave/incineration equipment, generators & UPS.
Containment Materials Rd $1.0M
[#12] Initial R&D program for containment materials, prototyping and field trials.
Medical Countermeasure Seed Research $750K
[#13] Seed research into antitoxins/antivirals and initial stockpile R&D (midpoint of $500k–$1M range).
Screening Program Setup $400K
[#8] Development and rollout of screening test/protocol and clinician training.
Aero Initial Training And Kit $360K
[#4] AERO selection/training and initial protective suits / non-destructive capture gear.
Public Narrative Setup $250K
[#11] Initial PR/misinformation campaign setup costs and tooling.
Misc Contingencies One Time $250K
[#22] Miscellaneous small-capital items and unexpected hardware replacements.
Training Setup $200K
[#18] Initial program and curriculum development for ROE revision and drills.
Legal Structuring $150K
[#3] Initial legal fees to arrange data-access agreements, NDAs, and structuring for plausible deniability.
Personnel Support Setup $75K
[#19] Initial vetting and psychological program establishment.
International Coordination Setup $50K
[#20] Setup and legal clearances for international liaison capability.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $17.1M/yr
Staff Wages $5.1M/yr
[#1, #4, #6, #7] 10 embedded operatives (~$800k/yr), AERO teams (24 personnel, ~$2.4M/yr), 8 guards + 4 on-site scientists/technicians (~$960k/yr), 6 lab researchers/technicians (~$900k/yr).
Supplies And Consumables $3.5M/yr
[#8, #9] Per-screen consumables (~50,000 screens @ $50/test ≈ $2.5M/yr) and quarantine/clinical care (~200 cases @ $5k ≈ $1M/yr).
Administrative Overhead $2.8M/yr
[#21] Administrative overhead (HR, accounting, benefits, procurement, site rent/maintenance) estimated at ~20% of direct recurring operating costs.
Settlement Fund Annual $2.0M/yr
[#17] Annual budget for contingency payouts, hush payments, and emergency relocation costs.
Insurance Premiums $1.0M/yr
[#16] Annual insurance premiums / reserve servicing if contingency is insured instead of wholly held as fund.
Research And Monitoring $950K/yr
[#7, #12, #13] Lab consumables and compute licensing ($200k + $100k), containment materials iterative testing & replacements ($250k), ongoing medical countermeasure research & stockpile maintenance ($400k).
Cover Story And Legal $600K/yr
[#3, #11] Legal retainers/periodic reviews ($100k/yr) and ongoing public narrative/PR operations (~$500k/yr).
Logistics And Transport $200K/yr
[#10] Secure transport operations and custody logistics (vehicle ops, couriers, chain-of-custody).
Biohazard Waste Management $200K/yr
[#14] Disposal & service contracts, incineration/autoclave service contracts and decontamination teams.
International Travel $200K/yr
[#20] Travel, liaison, and discrete cross-border incident response budget.
Misc Contingencies $200K/yr
[#22] Small recurring contingencies for unexpected replacements and minor projects.
Personnel Support $150K/yr
[#19] Ongoing counseling, vetting, background reinvestigations and rotation costs.
Training Recurring $100K/yr
[#18] Ongoing drills, recertification, tabletop and live exercises.
Facilities Maintenance $75K/yr
[#15] Fuel, generator maintenance, and HVAC redundancy maintenance / fuel contracts.
Case Logging Ops $50K/yr
[#2] Hosting, patches, 24/7 ops monitoring and backups for encrypted case-logging & analytics system.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $17.1M/yr
87.5% probability / year
Normal year with no major incidents; routine screening, maintenance, and operations continue.
no breaches normal incidence rates routine operations
🚨 Minor Incident $17.6M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Localized containment breach or public exposure requiring targeted response, limited cleanup, and small settlements.
small field containment breach targeted hospital cluster limited legal payouts
🚨 Major Breach $22.1M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Significant containment breach causing wider contamination, mass quarantines, accelerated countermeasure deployment and substantial legal/cleanup costs.
facility breach widespread symptomatic cases activation of contingency reserves
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $67.1M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline
Large-scale containment failure with major public exposure, prolonged emergency operations, mass litigation, and potential program relocation.
uncontrolled spread high-profile media exposure multi-jurisdiction legal actions
👥 Personnel 52 total
Role Count Notes
Embedded Operative / Liaison 10 [#1] Operatives embedded in healthcare/AOP network; estimated fully burdened cost ~$80k/yr each.
AERO Team Member (Security / MTF Agent) 24 [#4] Two AERO teams totaling 24 personnel (capture teams, medics); salaries summed to ~$2.4M/yr.
Security Officer / Guard 8 [#6] On-site armed guards at ~$60k/yr each.
Research Scientist / Technician (on-site containment) 4 [#6] On-site containment technicians/scientists supporting observation and maintenance (~$120k/yr each).
Research Scientist / Technician (lab-specific) 6 [#7] BSL-3/4 lab staff (6 researchers/techs) included in recurring research staffing (~$900k/yr total).
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are based on detailed analyst line items and an order-of-magnitude program model but remain uncertain due to Keter-class behavioral unknowns, incidence variability, and the large contingency/settlement ranges.
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