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SCP-8048 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-8048
Expected annual
$20.9M
One-time setup
$1.2B
Annual recurring
$10.5M
Personnel
25
One-time infrastructure and probe development dominate costs (baseline one-time program ~$1.226B driven by a probe build and optional sample-return); recurring annual costs are modest by space program standards (~$10.48M/yr) driven by staff, mission operations, communications and CI/cover operations.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.2B
Sample Return Mission $1.0B
[#10] Optional sample-return mission from SCP-8048 (low-end $1B selected; upper bounds can be orders of magnitude higher).
Probe Development And Launch $200.0M
[#1] Mission design, construction, testing, and launch/insertion of an eXR‑8048-class probe (baseline New Horizons–level chosen at ~$200M).
Facilities $20.6M
[#3, #4, #14] Deep-space array construction/upgrade (~$20M), secure data center buildout (~$500k), and physical security/setup (~$100k).
Equipment $4.2M
[#6, #8, #9] HPC hardware/initial nodes (~$200k), analytical instrument suite (GC-MS, ICP-MS, SEM/TEM, spectrometers) (~$2.0M), and robotic cave-mapping platforms/rovers (~$2.0M).
One Time Mitigation Event Fund $500K
[#13] Single-event mitigation/legal/settlement/covert-action fund for a major leak or mitigation event (midrange).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $400K
[#6, #7, #20] Initial model development/software (~$100k), corrosive/chemical sample-handling lab upgrades (~$200k), and initial sociological/policy research program start-up (~$100k).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $10.5M/yr
Staff Wages $4.0M/yr
[#2, #5, #11, #14] Salaries and benefits for mission operations/flight dynamics, core scientific analysis team, administrative/legal staff, and on-site security.
Research And Monitoring $2.0M/yr
[#2, #6, #8, #9, #18, #20] Ongoing mission operations (telemetry, navigation, anomaly response), recurring HPC/cloud compute and licenses, instrument service contracts and consumables, rover spares/repairs and redeployment, archival operations and compliance audits, and sustained sociological/policy research engagement.
Logistics And Transport $2.0M/yr
[#3, #9, #14] Deep-space communications operations and purchased array/DSN time, secure transport/redeployment of assets and samples, antenna/transport logistics.
Facilities Maintenance $600K/yr
[#3, #4, #14, #15] Maintenance and upkeep for deep-space array facilities, secure data center, security systems, and associated facility maintenance; includes some utilities maintenance.
Cover Story And Legal $500K/yr
[#11, #12] Administrative/legal overhead, FOIA/records management, funded cover stories, scientific liaison, conferences and outreach to support the natural-phenomenon narrative.
Counter Intelligence $500K/yr
[#13] Ongoing monitoring, leak detection, journalist relations, and covert mitigation expenditures.
Contingency Fund $400K/yr
[#17] Reserve (~10% of baseline annual program budget) for unexpected anomalies, mission failures, PR crises, or hazardous discoveries.
Supplies And Consumables $200K/yr
[#16] Propellant reserves (where applicable), spare parts, lab consumables, PPE, filters, hazardous waste disposal and small replacements.
Energy And Utilities $200K/yr
[#15] Power for antennas, servers, cryogenics, HPC and continuous HVAC for labs/data center.
Training And Clearance $50K/yr
[#19] Regular training, emergency exercises, and personnel security clearance maintenance/renewals.
Archival And Audits $30K/yr
[#18] Long-term archival storage growth, retention costs, and periodic compliance/audit reviews.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $10.5M/yr
87.0% probability / year
Routine, uneventful year of observation, analysis, and standard operations with no major incidents or major new missions.
normal_mission_operations routine_analysis standard_maintenance
🚨 Minor Incident $13.5M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$3.0M vs baseline
Localized mission failures or data loss (e.g., rover failure, instrument loss, or significant data corruption) requiring recovery, replacement hardware, or emergency investigations.
rover_or_instrument_failure significant_data_loss localized_hazard_response
🚨 Political Exposure $18.5M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$8.0M vs baseline
Significant public or interagency exposure requiring heavy legal, PR, and covert mitigation efforts but not full-scale sample return.
FOIA_or_media_exposure interagency_scrutiny major_legal_settlement
🚨 Sample Return Mission $1.0B/yr
1.0% probability / year +$1.0B vs baseline
Decision to pursue an Earth-return sample mission from SCP-8048 (massive one-time expenditure in the year the mission is executed).
demand_for_physical_samples new_technology_commitment policy_decision_to_retrieve
👥 Personnel 25 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 8 [#5, #20] Astrophysicists, exobiologists, geochemists, and data scientists performing spectral analysis, modeling, and sociological/policy liaison.
Mission Control / Flight Dynamics 4 [#2] Telemetry, navigation, commanding, and flight dynamics for probes and remote assets.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 4 [#14] Physical security for labs, data centers, and secure transports.
Engineer / Maintenance 3 [#1, #9, #3] Engineers supporting probe systems, rover maintenance, and communications/array upkeep.
Data Center / IT Staff 2 [#4, #6] Secure data center operators, backup/archival management, and HPC operations.
Administrative Staff / Legal 2 [#11, #12] Records management, FOIA responses, legal counsel, and outreach coordination.
Counter-Intelligence / OPSEC 1 [#13] Monitoring leaks, journalist relations, and covert mitigation coordination.
Site Director / Executive Staff 1 [#11] Program oversight, interagency coordination, and executive decisions.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are medium confidence: recurring costs are reasonably bounded by mission/space program analogues, but one-time costs (probe development, deep-space infrastructure, and especially sample-return) have very wide ranges and depend on program choices and technological approach.
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