SCP-8191 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-8191
Expected annual
$1.5M
One-time setup
$3.6M
Annual recurring
$1.4M
Personnel
9
One-time capital and reserve purchases dominate upfront costs (vessels, sensors, lab setup, contingency/scale reserves ~€600k–€2M), while recurring costs are driven by staff wages, logistics (vessel/helicopter operations) and cover/amnestic operations (~€150k–€1.5M/year depending on posture).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $3.6M
Strategic Scale Reserve $1.4M
[#30] One-time strategic/scale reserve to allow rapid escalation if manifestations increase.
Equipment $883K
[#1, #4, #7, #8, #13, #18, #25] Vessel purchase (#1), UAS purchase (#4), shore-camera network install (#7), tide gauges/hydrophones (#8), PPE initial (#13), secure evidence storage initial (#18), communications initial hardware (#25).
Contingency Reserve $688K
[#23] One-time contingency / liability reserve (lower-middle of stated range).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $583K
[#16, #17, #24, #29] Amnestic development/manufacturing lab setup (#16), forensic/lab equipment (#17 initial), initial research/data-acquisition modelling (#24 initial), archival/documentation initial setup (#29 initial).
Training Initial $33K
[#12] Initial comprehensive training course cost (memetic awareness, maritime boarding, language/legal familiarization).
Facilities $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.4M/yr
Staff Wages $715K/yr
[#10, #11] Dedicated francophone rapid-response team salaries (4–6 FTEs assumed) (#10) and on-call specialist agents / MTF team salary pool (#11).
Logistics And Transport $244K/yr
[#2, #3, #6, #14, #25, #27] Patrol vessel lease option (mapped but set to zero as purchase is assumed) (#2), patrol vessel fuel/maintenance/docking/crewing (#3), helicopter rapid-response retainer (recurring portion) (#6), expected per-activation sortie costs averaged over annual incidents (#14), communications fees recurring (#25), travel/lodging for specialists (#27).
Cover Story And Legal $208K/yr
[#19, #20, #21, #28] Local legal & PR budget and annualized per-incident media response (#19), salvage/cleanup contractor retainer and expected per-incident activations (#20), local cooperation stipends/reimbursements (annualized) (#21), public deception expenses per incident (annualized) (#28).
Research And Monitoring $174K/yr
[#5, #17, #24, #26, #29] UAS operations/pilots/batteries (#5), forensic per-sample running costs (averaged) (#17 recurring), long-term research program annual costs (#24 recurring), translation / cultural advisors (#26), archival/documentation recurring (#29).
Contingency Topup $28K/yr
[#23] Recurring minimum top-up to contingency/liability reserve.
Facilities Maintenance $25K/yr
[#9, #18] Sensor network operational costs (power, comms, maintenance, hosting) (#9) and secure storage climate/control/maintenance (#18 recurring).
Supplies And Consumables $20K/yr
[#13, #15] PPE and small craft recovery gear maintenance/consumables (#13 recurring) and expected annual amnestic/materials consumption averaged across incidents (#15 per‑person materials averaged).
Medical Per Custody $6K/yr
[#22] Expected small annualized cost for occasional medical/psychological care if custody episodes occur (baseline assumes rare/zero full custody events).
Vessel Lease $0/yr
[#2] Patrol vessel lease option (zero in baseline because purchase/owning assumed; retained as a contingency alternative).
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.4M/yr
70.0% probability / year
Normal year: routine monitoring, expected number of manifestations (handled covertly), no major public exposure or large legal/medical incidents.
normal_monitoring seasonal_manifestations_handled no_major_public_exposure
🚨 Minor Incident $1.6M/yr
25.0% probability / year +$200K vs baseline
A more expensive-than-average manifestation requiring full rapid response (helicopter deployment, extended salvage/forensics, visible media attention and larger amnestic/medical usage).
unexpected_manifestation rapid_helicopter_deployment noticeable_media_attention
🚨 Major Breach $2.5M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$1.1M vs baseline
Serious public exposure or casualty (drowning, public filming leading to mass exposure) producing large legal claims, heavy PR/amnestic operations and accelerated contingency drawdown.
civilian_casualty public_exposure large_legal_claims
👥 Personnel 9 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 5 [#10] Francophone rapid-response team (4–6 FTEs assumed; 5 used here).
On-call Specialist Agents / MTF 4 [#11] Small dedicated on-call memetic-safe operatives roster (annual salary pool included in staff_wages).
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates use midpoints of analyst ranges and a EUR→USD conversion (~1.10x). Many per-incident items averaged using assumed manifestation rate (1–2/year, modeled as 1.5/year). Several line items (lease vs purchase, reserve sizing, number of civilians exposed) required judgment calls, producing moderate confidence.
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