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SCP-8328 Apollyon ~ medium confidence
SCP-8328
Expected annual
$121.2M
One-time setup
$653.2M
Annual recurring
$119.0M
Personnel
40
Foundation operational one-time costs are estimated at $653,200,000 (facility buildouts, R&D/amnestic setup, targeted buyouts, reserves) with recurring operational costs of $119,000,000/yr (staff, monitoring, legal/PR, rapid response). The impossibility of global physical eradication is zeroed as infeasible; systemic economic damage from a major multi-system instantiation is tracked separately (~$800B one-time, $20B/yr long-term GDP loss) and is not considered Foundation spending. This report itemizes previously-unitemized large costs and removes infeasible global eradication spending included in the prior draft.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $653.2M
Facilities $318.0M
Itemized hardened archive and facility buildout: 1 hardened Faraday/EMP-/radiation-hardened vault and authorized single-copy archive (build, access controls, specialized storage): $8,000,000; three hardened/air-gapped regional backup centers with physical/analog contingencies (3 x $75,000,000 = $225,000,000); two secure memetics labs/blacksites (2 x $40,000,000 = $80,000,000); small-deniable-archive physical protections included here ($5,000,000). Totals aggregated to $318,000,000. Figures reflect construction/retrofit, hardened environmental controls, shielding, and initial validation certifications.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $100.0M
Initial amnestic production and secure pharmacological storage setup ($20,000,000), initial technical R&D program seed for engine-level mitigations and secure RNG research ($75,000,000), and seed funding for theoretical containment/mathematical research ($5,000,000). These are concrete capital and multi-year program startup costs.
Buyouts And Licensing One Time $100.0M
Upfront agreements and targeted one-time buyouts/licensing payments to large manufacturers/major engine vendors to implement blocking/filtering for high-value vectors (large game platforms, major RNG library vendors). This is a pragmatic, limited buyout aimed at major centralized suppliers — not an attempt to buy every manufacturer.
Insurance And Reserve Capital $100.0M
Seeded emergency reserve and insurance buffer for expensive, unpredictable emergency operations, legal settlements, and international coordination draws. This capital is held as Foundation-operational contingency.
Legal Lobbying Initial $25.0M
Initial covert/legal lobbying to secure classification, emergency cooperation agreements, and retainer setup with major jurisdictions and platform partners. Targeted, not global censorship purchase.
Equipment $10.0M
Supercomputer/analytics cluster hardware and initial procurement ($8,000,000) for large-corpus scanning/forensics plus rapid-response field equipment fleet and communications gear procurement ($2,000,000). Does not include recurring operating costs.
Secure Destruction And Sanitization $200K
Immediate one-time forensic sweeps and certified destruction contracts for known extant copies: chain-of-custody services, high-security shredding/incineration, forensic wiping, contractor fees. Midpoint estimate within the originally documented $50k–$500k range.
Physical Deck Collection Impractical $0
Zeroed: attempting to buy/collect/destroy every standard 52-card deck worldwide (or amnesticizing the entire population) is effectively impossible. The original analyst's $10^11–10^15+ figure is a notional infeasible order-of-magnitude; per Rule 2 the Foundation does not budget to attempt global physical eradication. The Foundation instead funds informational containment and targeted mitigations (costed elsewhere).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $119.0M/yr
Cover Story And Legal $35.0M/yr
Legal retainer and takedown rapid-response funds with major platforms, plus targeted covert influence/PR campaigns to discourage intentional recreation and manage exposure risk. This line funds ongoing content-removal relationships and limited influence operations; it intentionally does not assume full global cultural control (which is infeasible).
Research And Monitoring $25.0M/yr
SOC / monitoring of high-risk public channels (platform APIs, major repositories, app stores, digital distribution), supercomputer/analytics operations (power, ops staff), regular red-team exercises, and ongoing R&D maintenance for technical mitigations. Includes targeted large-corpus scans (not global surveillance).
Covert Operations $15.0M/yr
Allocated covert/black-budget operations for high-risk targeted interventions, threat neutralization, and exceptional remediation actions. Used sparingly in extreme exposures.
Facilities Maintenance $12.0M/yr
Ongoing maintenance, environmental control, shielding certification, HVAC, physical security, and periodic recertification for hardened vault(s), backup centers, and secure labs. Set at ~3–4% of capital facilities value annually plus specialized test cycles.
Logistics And Transport $10.0M/yr
Operating costs for contingency rapid-response field teams: vehicle fleets, transport, secure transport of seized media, mobilization readiness, and regional deployment rotations.
Staff Wages $9.0M/yr
Total staff wages, benefits, security-clearance processing, and retention premiums for a ~40-person core team across memetics research, cognitive science, linguistic review, SOC analysts, and administrative/security/compliance staff. Average loaded cost assumed ~$225,000/head/year given seniority and clearance requirements.
Buyouts And Licensing Maintenance $5.0M/yr
Annual maintenance, royalties, compliance audits, and technical integration support payments for vendor agreements and engine vendor collaborations established via one-time buyouts/licensing.
Supplies And Consumables $4.0M/yr
Operational consumables: amnestic production consumables, secure destruction supplies, medical consumables for amnestic administration, counseling/psych support budget for exposed personnel, and consumable training materials.
Public Safety And Partner Coordination $3.0M/yr
Liaison programs, partner workshops, and annual coordination exercises with selected ISPs, cloud providers, major game studios, and relevant government emergency agencies.
Training Program $1.0M/yr
Recurring education, SOP updates, and train-the-trainer programs for Foundation personnel and trusted partner liaisons about informational containment protocols and safe-handling procedures.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $119.0M/yr
97.0% probability / year
Routine year with no detected instantiation. Ongoing informational containment (monitoring, targeted takedowns, R&D, archive maintenance, staff) proceeds at planned levels.
no_detected_instantiation routine monitoring and vendor coordination only
🚨 Minor Incident $159.0M/yr
2.9% probability / year +$40.0M vs baseline
Localized accidental instantiation (single non-critical repository, indie game, or individual system). Results in data loss limited to a few high-value repositories or a localized service, requiring targeted rapid-response, extra legal takedowns, and limited amnestic administration.
accidental instantiation in a major repository or commercial game instance single-site digital annihilation with limited spillover
🚨 Major Breach $1.2B/yr
0.1% probability / year +$1.1B vs baseline
Widespread/high-profile instantiation across multiple systems, jurisdictions, or critical infrastructure triggering mass response, international coordination, and large emergency operations.
simultaneous multi-site instantiations instantiation within or cascading into critical infrastructure systems public/political exposure requiring mass emergency response
👥 Personnel 40 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist / Memeticist 12 Core memetics and containment researchers responsible for wording, safe-simulation oversight, and containment protocol design.
Cognitive Scientist 6 Behavioral modeling and cognitive risk assessment for informational containment strategies.
Linguist / Semantic Analyst 4 Detailed linguistic review of summaries, red-team wording analysis, and semantic risk detection.
Senior Reviewer / Board Member 4 High-level approval, access control, and oversight for the single-authorized-copy protocol.
Administrative Staff 3 Administrative support, recordkeeping, and chain-of-custody logistics.
Security Clearance / Compliance Officer 3 Handle clearances, procedural compliance, and audit trails for restricted access.
SOC Analyst / Monitoring Staff 4 Operate monitoring/analysis tooling, initial triage of signals, and coordinate takedown requests with vendors.
Rapid-Response Operators 4 Field teams for on-site isolation, secure seizure of media, amnestic administration liaison, and emergency forensic support.
📋 Confidence Notes
This re-evaluation used the complete article and the stage 1 analyst notes to (a) remove infeasible physical eradication budgeting (set to $0 and explained), (b) itemize large (> $1B) scenario costs in the major-breach scenario rather than use a single round number, and (c) separate Foundation operational spend from systemic economic damage. Probabilities and magnitudes retain uncertainty (rare-event modeling, unknown true likelihood of instantiation), but line items are conservative, itemized, and restricted to feasible Foundation actions; hence confidence is medium rather than the prior report's low level.
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