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SCP-854 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-854
Expected annual
$1.4M
One-time setup
$1.4M
Annual recurring
$1.4M
Personnel
7
Initial setup is approximately $1,410,000 one-time, with recurring operating costs around $1,405,000/year; largest drivers are staff wages, ongoing research/monitoring, and an annual contingency/reserve for incidents.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.4M
Initial Research And Lab Setup $442K
[#13, #26] Initial research uplift for rugged remote robotics/analysis and specialist archaeological/anthropological documentation (3D scanning, specialist fees).
Facilities $270K
[#2, #3, #4] Road/trail denial construction, anchored gates/barriers at arch ends, and one-time perimeter fencing installation (midpoint estimates combined).
Equipment $230K
[#5, #6, #7, #9, #10, #18, #19] Surveillance cameras and housings, communications terminal/antenna, off-grid power array, patrol vehicles (2×4x4), nonlethal deterrence equipment, one-time data-storage hardware, and med/first-aid kits.
Contingency Per Incident One Time $150K
[#20] Per-incident rapid-mobilization reserve (heavy equipment resealing / emergency field ops) - budgeted per plausible incident.
Decommissioning One Time $115K
[#29] Eventual site decommissioning, fence removal and environmental remediation (midpoint estimate).
Site Acquisition Setup $62K
[#1] One-time legal/administrative costs to formalize BLM access agreement and initial liaison setup.
Environmental Impact One Time $55K
[#21] One-time environmental surveys/remediation budgeting related to road closures and construction.
Cultural Tribal Liaison One Time $55K
[#16] One-time cultural/tribal engagement and compensation budget for initial consultations/documentation.
Cover Story One Time $30K
[#17] One-time costs for initial signage, PR/cover-story setup and legal positioning.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.4M/yr
Staff Wages $595K/yr
[#8, #11, #12] On-site security staffing (2–4 FTEs), site supervisor/scientific lead, and 2–3 field technicians (fully loaded salaries, travel/overtime included).
Research And Monitoring $328K/yr
[#13, #14, #15, #16, #18] Ongoing research program costs, instrumentation replacement/losses, wildlife monitoring, recurring tribal/anthropological consultations, and secure data storage/sysadmin.
Contingency Reserve $200K/yr
[#20, #25] Annual contingency/reserve for incident response, settlements, quiet compensation pools and large mobilizations.
Cover Story And Legal $82K/yr
[#1, #17, #22] Annual BLM liaison/permit maintenance, PR/cover upkeep, legal retainer and insurance premiums.
Administrative Overhead $50K/yr
[#27] Long-term monitoring administration, reporting, audits, and travel for quarterly inspections.
Facilities Maintenance $35K/yr
[#4, #7, #5, #6] Annual fence inspection/repairs, off-grid power fuel & maintenance, surveillance maintenance, and communications bandwidth/equipment upkeep.
Supplies And Consumables $30K/yr
[#24, #10] Consumables (batteries, PPE, small tools) and recurring nonlethal deterrence recertification/replacements.
Logistics And Transport $28K/yr
[#9] Vehicle operating costs: fuel, maintenance and insurance for 2 field vehicles.
Psychological Support $18K/yr
[#28] Counseling and witness management for staff and witnesses.
Environmental Monitoring $15K/yr
[#21] Ongoing environmental surveys and monitoring obligations.
Emergency Response $12K/yr
[#19] Medevac/medical retainer and readiness contracts kept on retainer for emergency extraction.
Personnel Vetting $12K/yr
[#23] Background checks, clearances, turnover and recruitment costs.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.4M/yr
85.0% probability / year
Normal year with routine operations, monitoring, and no major incidents.
routine_monitoring quarterly_inspections ongoing_research
🚨 Minor Incident $1.6M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$150K vs baseline
Small trespass or isolated disappearance requiring medevac, limited legal settlement, and local repairs.
trespass_requiring_medevac small_settlement localized_repairs
🚨 Major Breach $2.1M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$700K vs baseline
Public breach or high-visibility incident requiring heavy mobilization, large legal/settlement payouts, and extended containment operations.
public_exposure large_mobilization major_settlements
🚨 Research Breakthrough Requiring Scale Up $1.8M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$400K vs baseline
Significant research opportunity or unexpected data recovery that requires rapid procurement of additional equipment and expanded operations.
successful_remote_findings need_to_scale_robotics expanded_field_campaign
👥 Personnel 7 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 3 [#8] On-site patrol and deterrence (2–4 FTEs; midpoint used).
Site Supervisor / Scientific Lead 1 [#11] On-paper manager and liaison for operations and research.
Field Technician / Maintenance 3 [#12] Equipment upkeep, camera/fence/vehicle maintenance (2–3 techs; midpoint used).
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates use midpoints of provided ranges and reasonable assumptions about staffing and contingencies. Key uncertainties: research intensity (wide range in #13), frequency/severity of incidents, and choices about retained contingency vs. per-incident expenditures.
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