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SCP-8760 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-8760
Expected annual
$18.2M
One-time setup
$30.3M
Annual recurring
$16.1M
Personnel
63
Initial capital costs are approximately $30.33M driven by specialised containment, shielding, cryogenic and vault construction; recurring operations are ~ $16.14M/yr driven by staff wages, specialized fuel procurement, long-term research and maintenance.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $30.3M
Facilities $14.7M
[#1, #2, #5, #7, #14] Structural/civil work: containment chamber, hermetic door/airlock, facility-level HVAC capital, passive radiation shielding, and initial fuel-storage vault construction (selected mid-range estimates).
Catastrophic Reserve Fund $5.0M
[#21] Initial seed for internal catastrophic-risk reserve (lower-end prudent fund to cover major remediation/containment upgrade planning).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $3.7M
[#16, #17, #18] Hot lab / medical isolation suite buildout and initial research apparatus: hot lab fitout, initial research team equipment and lab instruments/diagnostics (spectrometers, vacuum rigs, compute nodes).
Equipment $3.4M
[#3, #6, #8, #11, #18, #19, #27] Hardware and installed systems: LN2 pump/flood install, backup generators/UPS, initial PPE inventory, remote manipulators/robotics, diagnostics hardware (reallocated partly to lab setup), transport casket fabrication, and remote telemetry hardware.
Containment Upgrade Planning Fund $3.0M
[#30] One-time planning and feasibility funds for potential future containment upgrades (magnetic systems, deep shielding studies).
Regulatory Permit Overhead $300K
[#23] One-time regulatory, shell-company setup, clandestine procurement overhead and permitting startup costs.
Security Vetting And Initial Clearance $100K
[#10] Initial background checks, clearance processing and vetting costs for new/expanded security cadre.
Insurance Modeling Consultancy $100K
[#21] One-time consultancy and modelling for catastrophic-risk sizing and insurance/reserve design.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $16.1M/yr
Staff Wages $9.0M/yr
[#9, #10, #17, #25] Salaries and loaded costs for MTF detachment, site security cadre, research staff and operations/technicians/admin (aggregated from analyst ranges).
Long Term Stabilization Research Program $2.0M/yr
[#29] Baseline-year funding for a multi-year stabilization research program (lower-end committed funding; full-scale program could be much larger).
Catastrophic Reserve Annual Provision $1.0M/yr
[#21] Annual contribution to catastrophic reserve to amortize low-probability high-cost events over time.
Facilities Maintenance $830K/yr
[#5, #6, #7, #11, #14, #26] HVAC energy & maintenance, generator fuel/maintenance, monitoring calibration, remote-systems maintenance, vault audits, spare parts and maintenance contracts.
Research And Monitoring $650K/yr
[#7, #16, #17, #18, #28] Non-salary research costs, instrument calibration/replacement, hot-lab ops, environmental sampling and baseline monitoring programs.
Specialized Fuel Procurement $500K/yr
[#13] Recurring procurement, secure storage handling and accounting for required combustible/radioactive feedstock (baseline moderate usage).
Cover Story And Legal $400K/yr
[#22, #23] Annual legal retainer, cover-story/PR budgets and covert procurement/retainer expenses.
Logistics And Transport $372K/yr
[#12, #19] Daily waste handling operations and periodic secure transport events (baseline frequency assumed).
Supplies And Consumables $305K/yr
[#4, #8, #32] Consumables: LN2 top-ups, PPE replacements and small operational contingency items.
Dosimetry And Medical Surveillance $300K/yr
[#15] Individual dosimetry, bioassays, routine medical exams and radiological medical readiness services.
Emergency Response And Contingency $300K/yr
[#20] Annual drills, coordination, firefighting readiness and small contingency equipment for radiological incidents.
Containment Upgrade Reserve Contribution $200K/yr
[#30] Annual set-aside toward potential future containment retrofits/upgrades.
Training And Sop Development $150K/yr
[#24] Ongoing SOP development, LN incapacitation exercises, training courses and external instructors.
Psychological Support And Vetting $75K/yr
[#31] Counselling, ethics oversight costs and staff retention/mental-health services for personnel working with the anomaly.
Data Ops $60K/yr
[#27] Secure telemetry, data storage operations and redundant archival systems maintenance.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $16.1M/yr
81.5% probability / year
Normal operational year with scheduled research, maintenance, routine waste handling and no major incidents.
routine_operations scheduled_research no significant incidents
🚨 Minor Incident $18.1M/yr
15.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline
Localized equipment failure or small radiological release requiring emergency response, repairs and limited remediation.
unauthorized activation small containment breach equipment failure
🚨 Major Breach $41.1M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$25.0M vs baseline
Significant containment failure or meltdown event causing structural damage, casualties and multi-month remediation.
structural failure large radiological release unauthorised personnel actions
🚨 Catastrophic Breach $216.1M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$200.0M vs baseline
Full uncontrolled fission/‘supernova-like’ end-state or catastrophic environmental release requiring large-scale remediation and possible site abandonment.
uncontrolled fission cascade site-level structural collapse large-scale environmental contamination
👥 Personnel 63 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 18 [#9] Nu-7 detachment for 24/7 rotational coverage; loaded cost included in staff_wages.
Site Security Guard 9 [#10] Supplementary security cadre to handle restricted-access wing; salaries included in staff_wages.
Research Scientist 9 [#17] Senior scientists and postdocs working on nuclear physics/materials; salaries included in staff_wages.
Technician / Engineer 18 [#11, #3, #5, #25] Shift technicians and engineers (mechanical, cryo, electrical, maintenance) for operations and remote-systems support.
Medical Officer / Radiological Specialist 2 [#15, #16] On-call radiological medical support and hot-lab medical supervision; medical services recurring costs accounted separately.
Administrative Staff 4 [#25, #23] Admin, logistics and procurement staff to manage supplies, licensing and covert procurement overhead.
IT / Data Engineer 2 [#27, #18] Secure telemetry, data storage and analysis support for instrumentation.
Site Director / Executive Staff 1 [#25] Executive oversight and liaison; included in staff_wages estimate.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items allowing mid-range estimates, but high-end nuclear-materials risks, uncertain fuel needs, and low-frequency catastrophic outcomes produce significant uncertainty in upper-bound costs.
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