SCP-8770 — SCP-8770 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-8770 Unknown ? low confidence

SCP-8770

Expected annual

$8.6M

One-time setup

$16.5M

Annual recurring

$8.1M

Personnel

Estimated recurring operating costs are dominated by monthly offshore vessel operations and frequent equipment replacement; baseline annual recurring costs are roughly $8.07M/yr while one-time capital purchases and contingency reserves raise upfront costs into the mid‑tens of millions. Main cost drivers: vessel charters/transport, equipment (ROVs, sonar, buoys), recurring replacement/losses, and legal/imagery containment.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $16.5M

Manned Submersible Purchase $6.0M

[#8] One‑time purchase option for a human‑occupied submersible/DSV (high end purchase estimate).

Decommissioning Reserve Or Full Salvage $5.0M

[#24] One‑time reserve for decommissioning, full salvage/removal or major site abandonment/salvage operations.

Vessel Purchase $3.0M

[#2] One‑time purchase of a Foundation‑owned small vessel as a capex alternative to charters.

Equipment $1.6M

[#3, #6, #7, #9, #15] Initial procurement: marine buoys, multibeam/sonar kit, ROV purchase (workclass & observation allocation), hyperbaric system purchase, communications hardware.

Initial Research And Lab Setup $650K

[#6, #10, #16, #19] Lab fit‑out and initial research instruments, diver training program setup, environmental monitoring kit and software/licenses.

Facilities $240K

[#4] Initial underwater mooring/anchor installation labour & specialist operations (8–12 anchors) estimated here.

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $8.1M/yr

Logistics And Transport $2.4M/yr

[#1] Baseline charter of coastal/offshore research vessel for monthly visits (~$1.2M–$3.6M/yr); midpoint charter assumption used here.

Staff Wages $1.2M/yr

[#6, #11, #19, #20] Salaries for research scientists, technicians, ROV operators, memetics/psych specialists, and administrative oversight.

Contingency Reserve $1.0M/yr

[#22] Annual allocation to escalation reserve for large salvage/containment or rapid scale‑up.

Lost Equipment Replacement $800K/yr

[#12] Contingency fund for unexpected equipment write‑offs and replacements beyond ROVs.

Rov Replacement Budget $600K/yr

[#7] Replacement/consumable allowance for observation and workclass ROVs given repeated losses/disablement.

Research And Monitoring $350K/yr

[#6, #16, #19] Data processing staff/licenses, periodic outsourced multibeam surveys, lab analysis and ongoing research operations.

Cover Story And Legal $300K/yr

[#14, #17] Legal counsel, PR/cover story maintenance, liaison with authorities when formal channels are used; excludes imagery suppression ops.

Medical And Sar $300K/yr

[#18] SAR standby contracts, medevac readiness allocations and insurance/self‑insurance reserves (operational standby costs).

Imagery Suppression Ops $200K/yr

[#13] Ongoing costs to manage/suppress satellite/imagery records via contracts/agreements (assumes lower‑risk contractual route).

Incident Investigation $200K/yr

[#21] Forensic investigations, travel, payouts and contingency for accident/media responses.

Facilities Maintenance $150K/yr

[#3, #4] Ongoing mooring/anchor reinforcement, buoy servicing and corrosion control.

Supplies And Consumables $150K/yr

[#5] Monthly maintenance trip consumables (fuel if not included in charter, port fees, disposables, per diem where applicable).

Saturation Diving Operations $150K/yr

[#9, #10] Ongoing saturation diving support, hyperbaric maintenance, training recertification and medical surveillance costs.

Energy Costs $150K/yr

[#25] Vessel fuel & generator usage and buoy battery replacement budgets.

Administrative Overhead $100K/yr

[#23] Security clearances, background checks, facility security overhead and administrative costs.

Telemetry Connectivity $20K/yr

[#15] Satellite airtime and encrypted telemetry for buoy/sensor network.

Vessel Crew And Upkeep $0/yr

[#2] Annual crewing and maintenance if vessel is purchased (set to 0 in baseline; accounted for in capex scenario).

Manned Submersible Charter $0/yr

[#8] Recurring charter costs for DSV/manned submersible (not used in baseline; high per‑day cost if activated).

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $8.1M/yr

85.0% probability / year

Routine year with monthly vessel charters, scheduled maintenance, and regular replacement allowances; no major incidents or capex decisions.

routine_maintenance no_major_losses contracted_satellite_agreements

🚨 Capex Vessel Purchase $11.6M/yr

5.0% probability / year +$3.5M vs baseline

Foundation elects to purchase a dedicated vessel in‑year, incurring the one‑time purchase cost plus ongoing crew/upkeep.

decision_to_buy_vessel remote_site_requires_own_ship

🚨 Major Equipment Loss $15.6M/yr

2.0% probability / year +$7.5M vs baseline

Catastrophic series of equipment failures/losses and a structural event requiring large salvage and replacement expenditures.

anomalous_disabling_of_electronics multiple_rov_losses structural_shift_requires_salvage

🚨 Covert Imagery Ops $10.1M/yr

8.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline

Containment requires covert or high‑cost imagery suppression/manipulation rather than benign contractual arrangements.

refusal_of_providers_to_cooperate legal_exposure_requires_covert_action

👥 Personnel 13 total

Role	Count	Notes
Research Scientist	3	Scientists conducting analysis, bathymetry interpretation, and overseeing investigations.
Research Technician	2	Lab and sample processing, environmental monitoring, and instrument support.
ROV Operator / Technician	3	Operate and maintain observation/workclass ROVs during missions.
Security Officer / MTF Agent	3	Onsite security and coordination for offshore operations and vessel protection.
Maritime Salvage Specialist / Diver Contractor	1	Technical advisor for mooring/attachment and salvage planning (on‑call/contractor but counted here as minimum dedicated staff).
Memetics Specialist / Psychological Officer	1	Screening, on‑mission monitoring, and memetic countermeasure guidance.
Site Director / Administrative Staff	1	Program management, contractor coordination, and administrative oversight.

📋 Confidence Notes

Estimates are low confidence due to large uncertainties in depth/remoteness, frequency of geometry shifts, equipment loss rates, and whether formal cooperation with navies/satellite vendors is possible (see summary and notes). Many items have wide cost ranges in source notes.

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