SCP-8790 safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-8790
Expected annual
$499K
One-time setup
$632K
Annual recurring
$484K
Personnel
6.5
Estimated first-year one-time setup costs ≈ $632,500 driven by property acquisition, conditional remediation/stabilization and contingency; steady-state recurring costs ≈ $484,100/yr driven primarily by armed security wages/benefits and on-call/drill readiness.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $632K
Facilities $418K
[#4, #7, #8, #9, #10, #22, #29] Fence/gate install, initial boarding/sealing, structural/environmental surveys, conditional hazard remediation, conditional structural stabilization, property acquisition + closing/legal; #29 is a first-year capital summary (not double-counted separately).
Contingency Reserve $100K
[#27] One-time contingency/reserve allocation for unforeseen discoveries or escalation (10–20% recommended range; mid-range allocated).
Equipment $57K
[#3, #5, #6, #12, #19, #25, #26] Patrol vehicle purchase, CCTV hardware & NVR install, UPS/generator purchase, initial PPE kit, initial secure IT hardware, small tools kit, emergency medical/AED kit.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $42K
[#11, #14, #15] Hazardous-material sampling/testing and disposal, artifact recovery and conservation (one-time), document digitization/redaction setup.
Cover Story Initial $10K
[#23] Initial local cover/closure/permit expenses to establish plausible public reason for closure (one-time).
Training Initial $6K
[#2] Initial guard training/qualification costs for full staff (one-time initial training allocation).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $484K/yr
Staff Wages $338K/yr
[#1, #28] Armed security staff (5 guards to staff one 24/7 post + 1 supervisor). Salary + benefits as estimated in analyst notes; dominates recurring costs.
Research And Monitoring $74K/yr
[#14, #15, #16, #17, #18, #24] Recurring archival climate-controlled storage, records management, part-time research/psychologist staffing (0.5 FTE assumed), psychological screening/counseling allocation and medical surveillance for staff.
On Call And Drills $20K/yr
[#13] Allocation for mobile response standby, MTF-style readiness and annual drills (medical, breach simulations).
Contingency Reserve $20K/yr
[#27] Recurring contingency/reserve allocation for year-to-year unexpected costs or escalation.
Cover Story And Legal $12K/yr
[#21, #23] Property taxes, liability/operational insurance estimates and ongoing minimal cover/story expenses and municipal coordination.
Facilities Maintenance $8K/yr
[#4, #5, #6, #7, #20] Ongoing perimeter/signage maintenance, CCTV monitoring/off-site storage, UPS/generator maintenance and fuel, boarding repairs, and utilities for minimal site systems.
Logistics And Transport $6K/yr
[#3] Patrol vehicle fuel/insurance/maintenance and occasional transport/resupply.
Training And Certification $4K/yr
[#2] Recurring guard training, firearms qualification, memetic/containment briefings and certifications.
Supplies And Consumables $2K/yr
[#12, #25, #26] PPE replenishment, small-tools/consumables replenishment, emergency kit consumables replacement.
It And Comms $1K/yr
[#19] Annual software, encryption, and secure-communications maintenance for NVR and research data.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $484K/yr
90.5% probability / year
Normal uneventful year with routine operations, no breaches or major remediation required.
steady_operations no_interior_entry routine_maintenance_and_drills
🚨 Minor Incident $509K/yr
3.0% probability / year +$25K vs baseline
Small-scale incident (vandalism, trespass, minor localized contamination or repair needs) requiring limited emergency response and repairs.
vandalism minor_contamination local_repair
🚨 Remediation Required $684K/yr
6.0% probability / year +$200K vs baseline
Discovery or decision to remediate asbestos/lead/mold and perform structural stabilization and more extensive conservation.
hazardous_abatement structural_stabilization interior_entry_decision
🚨 Major Breach $984K/yr
0.5% probability / year +$500K vs baseline
Significant security breach or high-profile exposure requiring major emergency response, legal/PR mitigation, repairs and long-term increased monitoring.
major_security_breach public_exposure large_scale_repair_and_legal
👥 Personnel 6.5 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 6 [#1] Five full-time guards to staff a single 24/7 post plus one full-time supervisor (salaries+benefits reflected in staff_wages).
Research Scientist 0.5 [#16] Part-time (0.5 FTE) researcher/psychologist allocation assumed for ongoing analysis and monitoring (costed in research_and_monitoring).
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates based on analyst line-item ranges and typical local costs; principal uncertainty arises from building condition (affects remediation/stabilization and property acquisition choices) and whether interior entry/research is permitted. Salary/training figures are well-defined but conditional capital items carry wide ranges.
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