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SCP-8873 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-8873
Expected annual
$1.2M
One-time setup
$3.3M
Annual recurring
$1.1M
Personnel
11
One-time capital upgrades (MRI purchase, containment cell construction, HVAC retrofit, secure IT/CCTV) dominate upfront costs (~$3.3M), while recurring costs are driven by security and medical staffing, imaging/diagnostics, disposal, and cover/HR replacement (~$1.14M/yr). Contingency and optional MRI purchase are the largest sources of variance.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $3.3M
Equipment $2.3M
[#4, #21, #23, #17] Includes midpoint MRI purchase/install ($1.0M–$3.5M), CCTV/install ($10k–$50k), small-capital items ($5k–$25k), and secure server/setup ($10k–$40k).
Facilities $765K
[#5, #11] Midpoint estimate combining two medical-capable containment cells ($300k–$1.0M total) and HVAC/negative-pressure retrofit ($30k–$200k).
Contingency Reserve $150K
[#18] Recommended one-time contingency/escalation reserve ($50k–$250k).
Residency Screening $85K
[#2] HR residency/background verification for ~1,000 staff at midpoint cost ($20–$150/employee).
Training And Sop Development $14K
[#1] One-off SOP drafting and 2–3 training sessions, training materials ($8k–$20k).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $0
[]
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $1.1M/yr
Staff Wages $707K/yr
[#6, #7] Security staffing (8 guards to cover 24/7, salaries + ~20% benefits; #6) and medical staffing (2 FTE nurses + part-time neurologist/physician/anesthesia support; #7).
Research And Monitoring $97K/yr
[#3, #8, #12] Routine symptomatic MRI scanning (~$12k–$50k/yr), neuropathology/diagnostic research ($20k–$100k/yr), and environmental monitoring ($2k–$10k/yr).
Hr Replacement $68K/yr
[#13] Recruitment, onboarding and training to replace ~2 personnel/yr (25–50% of salary; aggregated midpoint).
Cover Story And Legal $55K/yr
[#15] Legal/cover-story, family liaison and forged documentation per-incident budgeting aggregated to annual ($5k–$50k per death).
Workers Compensation $55K/yr
[#14] Internal compensation, death benefits and cover paperwork (~$5k–$50k per incident aggregated).
Cross Training Program $48K/yr
[#25] Cross-training and shadowing programs to mitigate loss of institutional knowledge ($20k–$75k/yr).
Anomalous Disposal $30K/yr
[#10] Incineration and hazardous waste disposal for remains and contaminated consumables (~$10k–$50k/yr for two cases).
External Consultants $28K/yr
[#19] Retained plant/biological specialists under secrecy ($5k–$50k/yr).
Psychological Services $14K/yr
[#16] Employee Assistance Program, counseling and debriefs ($2k–$25k/yr).
Supplies And Consumables $12K/yr
[#9, #22] PPE, consumables, medications and per-case single-use medical consumables ($1k–$8k + $500–$3k per case aggregated).
Facilities Maintenance $6K/yr
[#11] HVAC/negative-pressure/HEPA maintenance recurring cost ($2k–$10k/yr).
It Maintenance $6K/yr
[#17] Ongoing secure hosting/backup and maintenance for evidence logging and restricted databases ($2k–$10k/yr).
Logistics And Transport $6K/yr
[#20] Forensic/secure patient transfer logistics and transport ($1k–$10k/yr).
Record Destruction $6K/yr
[#24] Secure destruction/sanitization of documentary evidence ($1k–$10k/yr).
Cctv Maintenance $3K/yr
[#21] CCTV/motion sensor maintenance and remote replication ($1k–$5k/yr).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $1.1M/yr
94.0% probability / year
Normal, uneventful year with two expected afflictions handled under routine protocols and no major incidents.
two expected cases handled no cross-contamination or environmental spread
🚨 Minor Incident $1.4M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$250K vs baseline
Single-year elevated response: unexpected cross-contamination or discovery of limited environmental viability requiring targeted remediation and external contractors.
limited environmental contamination viable seed/pollen discovered onsite
🚨 Major Breach $3.6M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$2.5M vs baseline
Significant environmental transmissibility or wider contamination necessitating large-scale quarantine, remediation, and public exposure mitigation.
environmental transmissibility confirmed multiple uncontrolled offsite contaminations
👥 Personnel 11 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 8 [#6] 8 guards to provide 24/7 coverage for two containment cells (rotating shifts); wages included in staff_wages.
Nursing / Medical Technician 2 [#7] Two full-time nurses dedicated to patient care; wages included in staff_wages.
Medical Officer / Neurologist 1 [#7] Part-time neurologist/physician coverage (modeled as single headcount for staffing accounting); wages included in staff_wages.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are midpoints of analyst ranges and rely on assumptions about Site-19 capacity (MRI present vs purchased), staff counts, and two predictable annual cases. Capital decisions (buying an MRI, extent of retrofits) and future biological findings (seed/pollen viability) introduce moderate uncertainty.
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