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SCP-9012 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-9012
Expected annual
$184K
One-time setup
$1.5M
Annual recurring
$180K
Personnel
2
One-time capital and acquisition options dominate (purchase, demolition, or large interior investigations); baseline recurring costs are moderate and driven by staff wages, transport to the islet, and corrosion/structural maintenance.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.5M
Acquisition Purchase $1.0M
[#1] Purchase of small islet + lighthouse option (one-time; range $500k–$1.5M).
Facilities $366K
[#2, #6, #17, #18] Welding/sealing, structural assessment/stabilization, demolition option, and interior containment/upgrade work (combined estimate).
Rapid Response Fund $50K
[#10] One-time contingency set-aside for rapid deployment / incident response (maintain reserve).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $40K
[#12] Archival investigation and historical forensics initial project phase (cataloguing, specialist fees, lab costs).
Equipment $25K
[#4] Weatherproof IP cameras, motion/tamper sensors, solar power & battery bank, antenna mast and rugged enclosures; hardware & installation.
Initial Permits And Legal $15K
[#13] Initial legal & permitting costs to secure authority and heritage approvals.
Waste Removal One Time $10K
[#19] One-off hazardous waste removal / disposal set-aside for potential contaminated materials or biological samples.
Signage And Pr $6K
[#14] Initial multilingual signage, PR coordination and cover-story preparation (one-time signage/PR costs).
Operational Summary Reference $0
[#24] Summary / scenario guidance; no direct one-time cost (captured in other categories).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $180K/yr
Staff Wages $65K/yr
[#9, #11] Part-time/local caretaker or contractor stipend (~$8k–$30k) plus monitoring/research staffing (scaled monitoring option ~$20k–$50k; here budgeted as ~1 FTE-equivalent monitoring + caretaker).
Community Relations And Clandestine Staffing $30K/yr
[#14, #21] Municipal goodwill payments, public messaging, and costs to maintain cover identities / false registrations and small local salaries to avoid suspicion.
Contingency Uplift $30K/yr
[#22] Reserve for emergency storm damage, ice, lightning strikes, and other extreme weather-driven emergency repairs.
Records Management And Redaction $12K/yr
[#20] Secure records storage, redaction work, FOIA/legal responses, and memetic-containment administrative overhead.
Logistics And Transport $11K/yr
[#3, #8, #23] Boat charters and routine transport for inspections (2–4 visits/year) plus travel/lodging for off-island specialists (annualized).
Facilities Maintenance $10K/yr
[#7] Ongoing structural maintenance, corrosion control, painting, anode replacement, sealing joints, roof maintenance (marine environment).
Liability Insurance $10K/yr
[#15] Public liability and property insurance covering accidents, SAR calls, and environmental damage.
Environmental Mitigation $5K/yr
[#16] Monitoring/protection for nesting birds, marine pollution controls, waste removal from visits, and compliance monitoring.
Data Comms And Power $4K/yr
[#5] Satellite/cellular data plan, battery replacements, inverter/solar maintenance, and cloud storage for video retention.
Cover Story And Legal $3K/yr
[#13] Ongoing permit renewals and liaison fees (annual renewals/administrative legal upkeep).
Supplies And Consumables $0/yr
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Research And Monitoring $0/yr
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⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $180K/yr
94.0% probability / year
Normal uneventful year: routine inspections, monitoring, maintenance, and minimal research activity.
no anomalous activity scheduled maintenance visits minimal local reporting
🚨 Minor Incident $210K/yr
5.0% probability / year +$30K vs baseline
Localized incident or false alarm requiring field deployment and targeted repairs (storm damage, single disappearance report, sensor tampering).
severe storm damage to seals/cameras single disappearance or suspicious activity tampering or sensor failure
🚨 Major Reentry $380K/yr
1.0% probability / year +$200K vs baseline
Decision or need to re-enter interior for full containment/forensic study or sustained research campaign requiring heavy works and instrumentation.
evidence of internal activity or new disappearances discovery of remains or clear anomalous signs policy decision to fully rehabilitate or study interior
👥 Personnel 2 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist / Field Researcher 1 [#11] Part-time or 1 FTE-equivalent researcher responsible for monitoring, field studies, and data analysis (costed into staff_wages).
Site Caretaker / Local Contractor 1 [#9] Local part-time caretaker or contractor stipend to act as eyes on the ground, perform minor maintenance, and liaise with municipality (costed into staff_wages).
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line-item ranges and clear recurring vs. one-time distinctions, but large optional decisions (purchase, demolition, full reentry) produce wide cost variance; some event probabilities are subjective.
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