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SCP-9013 Unknown ? low confidence
SCP-9013
Expected annual
$359.0M
One-time setup
$2.2B
Annual recurring
$351.0M
Personnel
190
One-time establishment and capital assets are roughly $2.15B (major drivers: facility construction, space/mission assets, high-risk intervention reserve). Recurring annual costs for an active global prevention program are roughly $351M/yr (main drivers: intelligence/HUMINT, covert influence, ongoing R&D and operations).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $2.2B
High Risk Intervention Reserve $1.0B
[#25] High-risk intervention contingency (extreme unilateral measures): allocated $1,000,000,000 as a placeholder for potentially billion-dollar options (range $100M–several billion).
Direct Space Mission $300.0M
[#9] One-time direct space intervention mission fund (small-to-medium demonstrator/lander capability): $300M chosen as a probabilistic mid/high small-mission cost (range $50M–2B+ depending on scale).
Contingency Reserve $200.0M
[#12] Emergency preparedness / global contingency reserve initial funding: $200M (within $100–500M suggested reserve).
Facilities $176.0M
[#1, #2, #17] One-time construction and fit-out: hardened Secure Research & Containment Facility ($120M chosen midpoint of $50–200M range), Central Program Office secure fit-out ($6M midpoint of $3–10M), and one hardened archive/site setup ($50M chosen within $10–100M per-site range).
Equipment $155.0M
[#4, #14] One-time hardware and systems: satellite/space asset procurement (constellation/sensors) estimated at $150M and secure IT/hardware/software one-time purchases at $5M.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $120.0M
[#7] Initial counter-R&D and lab buildout: multidisciplinary high-end lab setup and initial program capital estimated at $120M (within $20–200M setup range).
Acquisitions And Buyouts $100.0M
[#6] Targeted acquisitions/buyouts of companies or IP to block dangerous R&D: chosen $100M (within $10–200M+ range depending on targets).
Legal Contingency Reserve $100.0M
[#22] One-time legal contingency / damage-control reserve: $100M (within $50–500M reserve range).
Cover Company Setup $3.0M
[#11] One-time establishment of shell companies/fronts, legal/accounting setup and initial incorporation fees estimated at $3M (within $1–5M range).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $351.0M/yr
Research And Monitoring $65.0M/yr
[#3, #4, #6, #7, #16, #18] Ongoing dedicated intelligence/technical monitoring, space launch monitoring ops, biomedical/trial monitoring, counter-R&D ongoing budgets and crisis simulation modeling: aggregated at $65M/yr (components: intelligence tooling/feeds, space monitoring ops, biomedical monitoring, counter-R&D continuation, clinical trial oversight, simulation teams).
Covert Influence $40.0M/yr
[#5] Covert influence, lobbying and diplomatic operations to shape policy and private sector behavior: $40M/yr (within $10–100M/yr range depending on intensity).
Staff Wages $38.0M/yr
[#1, #15] Central Program Office operations and long-term recruitment/retention salaries: $8M for central HQ operational staff and $30M for retention/grants/specialist salaries (combined $38M/yr).
Cover Story And Legal $35.0M/yr
[#11, #22] Recurring cover infrastructure running costs, legal teams, compliance and insurance/legal operations: $15M (fronts/run costs) + $20M (insurance/legal premiums/operations) = $35M/yr.
Humint Assets $30.0M/yr
[#13] Recurring costs for HUMINT placements inside agencies/corporations: program-level spend $30M/yr (within the $4–100M/yr program range depending on number and quality of assets).
Satellite Replacement Reserve $30.0M/yr
[#24] Rapid replacement fund for monitoring satellites and ground stations: $30M/yr (within $10–100M/yr reserve guidance).
Facilities Maintenance $25.0M/yr
[#2, #20] Annual utilities, maintenance, backup power and facility security contracts: $15M (facility ops) plus $10M for energy/utilities for high-power operations = $25M/yr.
Information Operations $20.0M/yr
[#10] Public narrative, memetic/PR campaigns, and emergency cover-story budgets: $20M/yr (modest-to-global scale selection within $2–100M/yr range).
Contingency Fund Replenishment $20.0M/yr
[#12] Annual expected replenishment/top-up for the emergency contingency reserve: $20M/yr assumed (to maintain a $200M reserve over time; actual replenishment varies with drawdowns).
Covert Operations $15.0M/yr
[#8] Trained interdiction and tactical response teams: $15M/yr for upkeep and readiness (within $5–25M/yr), excluding single-operation activations.
Data Security Ops $12.0M/yr
[#14] Ongoing secure IT/data center operations, updates, cloud costs and hardened bunker operations: $12M/yr (combining $1–5M ops and $5–20M for hardened bunkers into a consolidated recurring estimate).
Logistics And Transport $8.0M/yr
[#19] Secure transport, armored couriers, charters and hazardous handling operations: $8M/yr baseline (range $2–15M/yr).
International Programs $8.0M/yr
[#23] Funding for liaison, cooperative programs and grants with agencies and universities: $8M/yr (within $2–20M/yr).
Supplies And Consumables $2.0M/yr
[#27] Lab consumables, PPE, office supplies and routine upkeep: $2M/yr (within $0.5–5M range).
Medical Memetic Program $2.0M/yr
[#21] Medical, psychological and memetic safety programs for staff: $2M/yr (within $0.5–3M/yr).
Auditing And Review $1.0M/yr
[#26] Independent audits, external review panels and periodic oversight: $1M/yr (within $0.5–3M/yr).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $351.0M/yr
85.5% probability / year
Normal year with steady monitoring, operations, and no major incidents.
no major launches/inflection events routine monitoring and ops only
🚨 Minor Incident $361.0M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$10.0M vs baseline
Localized incident requiring tactical response and limited emergency operations (e.g., single covert interdiction or targeted R&D takedown).
single covert operation localized leak or small-scale breach
🚨 Political Exposure $401.0M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline
Significant political exposure or multi-jurisdictional legal crisis requiring major PR/legal spending and diplomatic efforts.
media leak or public scandal multi-state legal actions
🚨 Major Breach $651.0M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$300.0M vs baseline
Major containment or operational breach requiring emergency global response, large-scale interdictions and reserve drawdowns.
widespread technical breach rapid technology diffusion event
🚨 Direct Space Intervention Deployment $851.0M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$500.0M vs baseline
Decision-year to launch/execute a direct off-world intervention or major mission to disrupt or monitor Martian habitation (high-cost mission deployment).
detected momentum toward sustained off-world habitats strategy shift to direct intervention
👥 Personnel 190 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 100 Allocated from recruitment/retention budget [#15]; multidisciplinary specialists (biogerontologists, memeticists, astrophysicists).
Intelligence Analyst 40 Dedicated analysts for OSINT/tech monitoring funded under staff budgets and monitoring programs [#3, #13].
Program Managers / Administrative Staff 30 Central Program Office managers, legal counsel, secure communications and administrative staff per [#1].
Security Officer / MTF Agent 10 Core site-level security and rapid response coordinators funded within staff_wages baseline [#1].
Medical Officer 5 Medical and psychological staff supporting staff safety programs [#21].
Engineer / Maintenance 5 Facility engineers and maintenance personnel for critical infrastructure [#2, #20].
📋 Confidence Notes
Wide cost ranges, strategic choices (preventive vs. interventive), and highly uncertain probabilities for space/tech events produce low confidence. Many line items (space missions, legal contingencies, high-risk interventions) are optional and span orders of magnitude.
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