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SCP-9123 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-9123
Expected annual
$55.0M
One-time setup
$210.9M
Annual recurring
$53.6M
Personnel
28
One-time programmatic development (specialized pharmaceutical R&D, manufacturing qualification, and construction of a contingency facility) drives a large up-front cost (~$211M). Ongoing annual mitigation (drug procurement/distribution, diagnostics, research, safe houses, standing MTF, clinical care, and reserves) runs on the order of tens of millions per year (~$53.6M/yr), with incident response and legal/cover costs as major recurring drivers.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $210.9M
Initial Research And Lab Setup $178.2M
[#2, #11, #18, #20] Major one-time R&D / lab buildout and prototype costs: specialized anti-cognitohazard pharmaceutical program (midpoint $50M–$300M ≈ $175,000,000), diagnostic lab setup (midpoint $500k–$2M ≈ $1,250,000), physical neutralization R&D/prototype (midpoint $500k–$3M ≈ $1,750,000), and initial training curriculum development (midpoint $100k–$300k ≈ $200,000).
Facilities $27.6M
[#5, #23] Includes cold-chain / secure storage setup (midpoint of $20k–$150k ≈ $85,000) and optional full capture/containment facility construction (midpoint of $5M–$50M ≈ $27,500,000).
Manufacturing Setup $3.0M
[#3] CMO qualification and first-batch production setup (midpoint of $1M–$5M ≈ $3,000,000).
It Opsec Setup $1.1M
[#14] OPSEC/IT compartmentalization one-time upgrades and hardened enclave establishment (midpoint $250k–$2M ≈ $1,125,000).
Equipment $1.0M
[#9, #25] Initial procurement of non-lethal / specialized countermeasure hardware (midpoint $200k–$600k ≈ $400,000) plus startup fleet purchase for field response (midpoint $200k–$1M ≈ $600,000).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $53.6M/yr
Research And Monitoring $10.8M/yr
[#10, #11, #17, #22] Surveillance/intelligence and analytics (midpoint $200k–$1M ≈ $600,000), diagnostic assay throughput (5,000 tests/yr midpoint ≈ $5,500,000), dedicated basic research into mechanism and countermeasures (midpoint $1M–$5M ≈ $3,000,000), and EVE-construct monitoring/control (midpoint $500k–$3M ≈ $1,750,000).
Safe Houses Relocation $7.5M/yr
[#13] Safe houses, relocation, and witness protection (50 people midpoint $5k–$20k/person/mo ≈ $7,500,000/yr).
Logistics And Transport $6.4M/yr
[#6, #7] Targeted distribution program (midpoint for 5,000–20,000 deliveries/yr ≈ $5,125,000/yr) plus standing field support teams (4 teams and equipment midpoint $500k–$2M ≈ $1,250,000/yr).
Clinical Follow Up $6.2M/yr
[#12] Ongoing clinical care, psychiatric treatment, and rehabilitation for affected persons (500 cases/yr midpoint $5k–$20k ≈ $6,250,000/yr).
Liability Reserve $5.5M/yr
[#19] Annual liability and emergency compensation reserve (midpoint $1M–$10M ≈ $5,500,000/yr).
Miscellaneous Reserve $5.5M/yr
[#27] Contingency/escalation reserve for unforeseen GoI retaliation, rapid pivots, or legal freezes (midpoint $1M–$10M ≈ $5,500,000/yr).
Cover Story And Legal $4.0M/yr
[#15, #16, #21] Legal/cover-up/PR baseline and liaison costs: annual legal/cover budget (midpoint $500k–$5M ≈ $2,750,000), crisis communications baseline (midpoint $300k–$1M ≈ $650,000), and covert negotiation/liaison (midpoint $100k–$1M ≈ $550,000).
Supplies And Consumables $3.4M/yr
[#1, #4, #25] Annual pharmaceutical resupply and stop-gap stockpiles (10,000 courses midpoint ≈ $325,000), ongoing production/procurement runs (program-scale midpoint $0.5M–$5M ≈ $2,750,000/yr), and routine consumables/vehicle maintenance (midpoint $100k–$500k ≈ $300,000/yr).
Staff Wages $2.0M/yr
[#8] Dedicated MTF Mu-3 standby roster and salaries: 20operatives @ $80k/yr ≈ $1.6M plus support (medics/logistics/admin) ≈ $400k, total ≈ $2,000,000/yr.
Incident Mobilization $1.1M/yr
[#24] Representative cost per major minimization operation (midpoint $250k–$2M ≈ $1,125,000); budgeted here as an annualized per-incident baseline reserve.
Training $500K/yr
[#20] Recurring costs for courses, simulators, refresher training (midpoint $200k–$800k ≈ $500,000/yr).
It Opsec Ops $300K/yr
[#14] Ongoing IT/OPSEC maintenance, identity-rotation, and compartmentalization operations (midpoint $100k–$500k ≈ $300,000/yr).
Audit Oversight $175K/yr
[#26] Independent/clandestine audit, oversight, and ethical review (midpoint $50k–$300k ≈ $175,000/yr).
Equipment Maintenance $125K/yr
[#9] Annual maintenance and replacement for non-lethal and specialized countermeasure hardware (midpoint $50k–$200k ≈ $125,000).
Facilities Maintenance $66K/yr
[#5] Ongoing secure cold-chain and refrigerated storage operations (midpoint $1k–$10k/mo ≈ $66,000/yr).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $53.6M/yr
78.0% probability / year
Normal year with routine operations, scheduled resupply, diagnostics, research, and standing readiness; no major incidents beyond budgeted reserves.
no major public incidents routine prophylaxis and diagnostics scheduled R&D and training
🚨 Minor Incident $56.0M/yr
18.0% probability / year +$2.4M vs baseline
Single localized compulsion event requiring extra mobilization, targeted legal/PR response, and additional clinical follow-up.
localized public compulsion event additional field deployments moderate media/legal attention
🚨 Major Incident $78.6M/yr
4.0% probability / year +$25.0M vs baseline
Large-scale mass-compulsion event or high-profile leak requiring extensive emergency response, large settlements, mass clinical care, safe-house operations, and elevated PR/legal costs.
urban mass compulsion event fatalities or mass casualties major public exposure requiring large settlements
👥 Personnel 28 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 20 [#8] Dedicated Mu-3 roster as specified (20 operatives @ $80k/yr).
Medical Officer 4 [#8] Support medics included in the support budget line (~$400k total support).
Engineer / Maintenance 4 [#8] Logistics/maintenance/support staff inferred from support budget (~$400k).
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes are detailed and enumerate major cost centers with ranges; however wide ranges for pharmaceutical R&D, incident severity, and GoI-related escalation introduce substantial uncertainty. Midpoint-based estimates used for budgeting give medium confidence.
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