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SCP-9149 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-9149
Expected annual
$2.8M
One-time setup
$5.1M
Annual recurring
$2.7M
Personnel
13
One-time preparedness and capability build-out is large (~$5.1M) driven by structural containment upgrades and a contingency reserve; recurring baseline operations run roughly $2.7M/yr driven mainly by staff wages and ongoing R&D/surveillance.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $5.1M
Contingency Reserve $2.0M
[#26] One-time contingency reserve fund held for large-scale outbreak surge response (temporary quarantine shelters, surge staffing, mass incineration logistics, etc.).
Facilities $1.9M
[#1, #4, #11] Structural upgrades to a dedicated BSL-3-equivalent medium-risk containment cell (negative-pressure/HEPA/airlocks) plus decontamination showers/airlocks and ABSL-2/3 animal housing buildout. Estimates combined from item #1 (cell upgrades) and item #4 (decon infrastructure) and item #11 (animal housing upgrades).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $575K
[#9, #10] Diagnostic assay development/validation and initial research/preclinical animal-model establishment costs (assay dev, sequencing/validation and initial preclinical model setup).
Equipment $425K
[#2, #3, #5, #12, #13, #19, #23, #24] Cold-storage (-80°C LN2 capability), initial PPE stockpile, autoclave, sample transport containers and retrofitted van, ambulance retrofit, information-security systems, secure record storage setup, and initial containment pharmacy stocking (items #2, #3, #5, #12, #13, #19, #23, #24).
Initial Training $175K
[#8] Initial certification and large-scale live drills and training for ~50 relevant staff in year-one (tabletops, live drills, don/doff certification).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $2.7M/yr
Staff Wages $1.5M/yr
[#6, #7, #11, #29] Ongoing salaries and benefits for containment staff: dedicated security guards (#6), three Level-3 researchers + containment manager + lab technicians (#7), veterinary/staff overlap from animal care (#11) and small administrative/project management overhead (#29).
Research And Monitoring $715K/yr
[#10, #11, #16, #20, #27] Ongoing R&D/countermeasure exploratory program costs (#10), recurring animal care/preclinical maintenance (#11), epidemiological surveillance and contact-tracing program baseline (#16), laboratory insurance/compliance/audits (#20), and behavioral/psychological staff support (#27).
Cover Story And Legal $125K/yr
[#17, #18] PR/legal retainer and ongoing media management and liaison with government partners to maintain cover; larger compensation/claims are treated as per-incident costs (#17, #18).
Supplies And Consumables $120K/yr
[#3, #4, #9, #22, #24] Recurring PPE replacement and consumables, decontamination chemicals and laundry, per-test consumables for diagnostics, routine sample consumables (swabs/tubes/transport media), and recurring medical/pharmacy restocking (items #3, #4, #9, #22, #24).
Logistics And Transport $75K/yr
[#12, #13, #25] Recurring fuel/maintenance and small fleet costs for sample transport and cold-chain logistics (#12), baseline ambulance/quarantine mission costs assumed for occasional transfers (#13), and containment-related travel/air-freight and specialist consults (#25).
Facilities Maintenance $50K/yr
[#21] HVAC, HEPA filter replacements, negative-pressure system electricity and preventative maintenance for the dedicated containment room(s) (item #21).
Information Security $50K/yr
[#19] Ongoing monitoring, audits, access logging, and insider-threat mitigation for staff and data (item #19).
Training And Drills $50K/yr
[#8] Annual refresher training, tabletop exercises, and live drills for containment and outbreak response (item #8 recurring).
Biohazard Waste Disposal $20K/yr
[#5, #15] Recurring contracted incineration / medical waste disposal costs for contaminated consumables and per-body disposition where contracting is used (items #5 and #15).
Cold Storage Maintenance $10K/yr
[#2] Maintenance, electricity and backup power support for -80°C freezers and LN2 storage (item #2).
Secure Records Maintenance $10K/yr
[#23] Recurring maintenance, secure backups, and restricted database hosting for research/incident records (item #23 recurring).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $2.7M/yr
87.5% probability / year
Normal year with containment maintained, routine testing, ongoing R&D and surveillance; no major outbreaks or deployments.
no_major_outbreak routine_testing_and_R&D stable_containment
🚨 Small Incident $2.8M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$75K vs baseline
Single household or very small exposure event requiring diagnostics, a limited MTF callout, a few transfers and a handful of cremations.
1-5_exposed_individuals local_diagnostic_surge single_MTF_callout
🚨 Localized Outbreak $3.5M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$750K vs baseline
Localized catering or community outbreak (dozens–low hundreds exposed) requiring mass testing, contact tracing, multiple transfers, multiple MTF deployments, legal/media response and several cremations.
50-200_exposures mass_testing_and_tracing multiple_MTF_deployments
🚨 Superspreading Event $22.7M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$20.0M vs baseline
Major public-event superspreading with hundreds+ exposures requiring full-scale epidemic response, mass quarantine, numerous MTF deployments, major legal/cover-up costs and large R&D surge.
500+ exposures mass_quarantine large_scale_MTF_and_R&D_surge
👥 Personnel 13 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 4 [#6] Four full-time guards assigned to the containment unit (two per shift overlap); wages included in staff_wages.
Research Scientist (Level-3) 3 [#7] Three Level-3 researchers to meet approval/testing requirements; wages included in staff_wages.
Site Director / Containment Manager 1 [#7] One containment manager (approvals/oversight); wages included in staff_wages.
Lab Technician 3 [#7] Three lab technicians supporting daily operations and testing; wages included in staff_wages.
Veterinary Staff 1 [#11] One veterinary lead to support animal models and ABSL care; recurring vet costs and some wages included in research_and_monitoring and staff_wages.
Administrative Staff 1 [#29] Small administrative/project management headcount for approvals, record-keeping and coordination; wages included in staff_wages.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed itemized ranges; many recurring and one-time items are well-described but outbreak frequency and scale are uncertain, and choices (procure vs contract, reserve size, staffing depth) introduce moderate uncertainty.
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