SCP-9230 — SCP-9230 | Cost Breakdown

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $12.1M

Catastrophic Failure Reserve $5.0M

[#25] Large one-time contingency/catastrophic-failure reserve to fund emergency evacuations, mass responses, or major political fallout (#25).

Equipment $1.2M

[#2, #3, #4, #7, #28] Six SRAs hardware+install (#2), drone fleet purchase (#3), drone ops center hardware/servers/comms (#4), ROV hardware initial units (#7), and initial surveillance redundancy/sensor upgrades capital portion (#28).

Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.1M

[#8, #9, #21] Field research laboratory outfitting (#8), specialized scientific equipment/sequencers/mass-spec/chronobiology rigs (#9), and initial medical/research equipment purchase (#21).

Land Acquisition And Relocation $1.0M

[#14] One-time cost for purchase/relocation compensation or large easement buyouts for nearby village/buffer land (#14).

Compensation Reserve Establishment $1.0M

[#16] Establishment of initial compensation/liability reserve fund for potential incidents and payouts (#16).

R And D Initial $1.0M

[#17] Initial R&D program funding to research non-memetic containment and alternatives to amnestics (#17).

Tactical Equipment Procurement $500K

[#12] One-time procurement of lethal weaponry, specialized munitions, ballistic armor, night-ops gear and spares (#12).

Record Destruction Initial $300K

[#29] Initial funding for record-destruction / amnestic-failure mitigation program setup (#29).

Facilities $225K

[#1, #6] Perimeter fence and site survey/foundation work for exclusion zone (#1) plus installation costs for power infrastructure (grid tie/generator/battery bank) installation portion (#6).

Medical Equipment Initial $200K

[#21] One-time medical capability equipment and specialized autopsy / monitoring gear (#21).

Initial Legal Cover Campaign $150K

[#13] Initial legal/political cover costs, permits, lobbying, and setup of a civilian cover story campaign (#13).

Vehicle Procurement Initial $150K

[#23] Initial procurement of field vehicles for patrols, transport, and logistics (#23).

Vetting Initial $100K

[#18] Initial psychological screening and background-investigation costs for core personnel (polygraphs, exams) (#18).

Data Security Initial $80K

[#19] One-time investment in encryption, secure comms hardware, and off-site backup setup (#19).

Cover Infrastructure Initial $50K

[#22] Initial cover-story public-facing infrastructure, signage, and plausible civilian project setup (#22).

Biosafety Initial $30K

[#20] Initial PPE, decontamination stations, and biosafety kit purchases (#20).

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $5.7M/yr

Mtf Readiness $1.5M/yr

[#11] Ongoing costs to maintain an on-call tactical team (training, equipment maintenance, vehicles/helicopters), per-year sustainment estimate (#11).

Research And Monitoring $850K/yr

[#8, #9, #17, #24] Field lab operations and utilities (#8), instrument calibration and consumables (#9), ongoing R&D program costs (#17), and long-term monitoring/data-analysis personnel costs (3–6 FTEs) (#24).

Staff Wages $750K/yr

[#10] Core containment staff (security techs, drone pilots, technicians) 10–20 FTEs; estimate based on ~15 FTEs at ~$50k/year.

Catastrophic Fund Replenishment $500K/yr

[#25] Annual replenishment to catastrophic-failure / emergency response fund to maintain long-term readiness (#25).

Cover Story And Legal $200K/yr

[#13, #22] Ongoing legal fees, permits, lobbying, and maintenance of cover-story projects to obscure activity (#13, #22).

Compensation Reserve Replenishment $200K/yr

[#16] Annual replenishment / reserve contributions for liability and incident payouts (#16).

Land Easement Payments $200K/yr

[#14] Ongoing easements, long-term payments to property owners, or staged relocation payments to nearby village if property not purchased outright (#14).

Contingency Overruns $200K/yr

[#30] Miscellaneous operating expenses, permits, currency fluctuations, and minor contingency overruns (10–20% buffer estimate) (#30).

Supplies And Consumables $160K/yr

[#5, #7, #20] Drone maintenance and battery replacement consumables (#5), ROV sterile retrieval kits and consumables (#7), and biohazard waste disposal / consumables (#20).

Facilities Maintenance $150K/yr

[#1, #6] Ongoing maintenance of perimeter, gates, SRAs' physical infrastructure and general site upkeep; excludes fuel which is listed separately (#1, #6).

Logistics And Transport $150K/yr

[#23] Transportation, lodging, local vehicle fuel, and housing allowances for rotating staff near remote site (#23).

Community Payments $150K/yr

[#15] Ongoing hush payments, medical programs, cultural liaisons, and controlled grants to the nearby village (#15).

Medical Staffing And Tests $150K/yr

[#21] On-call medical staff, periodic health monitoring, and routine tests for staff and covert monitoring programs (#21).

Tactical Replenishment $100K/yr

[#12] Annual replenishment of ammunition, specialized munitions, and training/trainer ammunition (#12).

Record Destruction Ops $100K/yr

[#29] Operational costs of amnestic-failure mitigation program, physical isolation, and testimony suppression activities (#29).

Power Fuel And Maintenance $80K/yr

[#6] Fuel, generator maintenance, UPS/battery upkeep, and fuel resupply logistics for continuous power in constant-midnight environment (#6).

Media Control $75K/yr

[#26] Ongoing PR retainers, disinformation, takedowns, and rapid-response media control (#26).

Cultural Liaison $60K/yr

[#27] Language specialists, anthropologists, and negotiators to manage village relations (#27).

Surveillance Upgrades $50K/yr

[#28] Periodic upgrades and calibration for low-light/thermal/active-LIDAR sensors for constant-midnight environment (#28).

Data Security Maintenance $30K/yr

[#19] Hosting, secure backup maintenance, and comms encryption service fees (#19).

Vetting And Counterintelligence $25K/yr

[#18] Periodic psychological screening renewals, background rechecks, and CI operations (#18).

Signage Maintenance $20K/yr

[#22] Maintenance of cover-story signage and small public-facing infrastructure (#22).

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $5.7M/yr

88.0% probability / year

Normal operational year with steady containment, routine research, and no major incidents.

no_breach routine_operations standard_research_activity

🚨 Minor Incident $6.1M/yr

6.0% probability / year +$400K vs baseline

Localized breach or unauthorized entry requiring MTF deployment and limited equipment replacement/PR action.

unauthorized_entry limited_equipment_damage short_term_media_exposure

🚨 Major Breach $10.7M/yr

2.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline

Significant containment failure with large-scale MTF response, mass legal/compensation costs, and major equipment/facility losses.

containment_failure mass_deployment international_exposure

🚨 Village Relocation And Scale Up $8.7M/yr

3.0% probability / year +$3.0M vs baseline

Decision to relocate/acquire nearby village or perform large-scale land acquisition and relocate population for long-term containment.

political_pressure legal_impossibility_of_easement escalating_entity_influence

🚨 Research Breakthrough Requiring Scale Up $7.7M/yr

1.0% probability / year +$2.0M vs baseline

Successful breakthrough in non-memetic containment or therapeutics that requires rapid scale-up of research and facilities.

major_r_and_d_progress decision_to_scale_research construction_of_additional_facilities

👥 Personnel 15 total

Role	Count	Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent	6	Local security staff and quick-response personnel included in core containment staff estimate; part of recurring staff wages (#10).
Drone Operator / Technician	5	Operators and maintenance techs for 24/7 drone coverage and SRAs; included in recurring staff wages (#10).
Engineer / Maintenance	2	Power, generator, and SRA/ROV maintenance staff; included in staff wages (#10).
Administrative Staff	1	Local admin and liaison for permits/cover operations; included in staff wages (#10).
Site Director / Executive Staff	1	Site lead/managerial oversight included in staff wages (#10).

📋 Confidence Notes

Estimates are drawn from analyst ranges in the notes; many line items have wide ranges (e.g., village relocation, MTF readiness, catastrophic reserves) and political/legal variables in-country (Bulgaria) create substantial uncertainty, so medium confidence is appropriate.