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SCP-9790 Disputed ~ medium confidence
SCP-9790
Expected annual
$584K
One-time setup
$25.7M
Annual recurring
$511K
Personnel
11
One-time setup and containment construction are modest-to-moderate (~$0.2M–$26M depending on whether high-containment labs or endowments are funded), while recurring baseline operations are roughly $0.51M/yr; major drivers are staff wages, ventilation/power/site maintenance, monitoring equipment, and optional BSL program or excavation/incident reserves.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $25.7M
Bsl4 Build $17.5M
[#11] Optional full BSL-4 facility build (midpoint estimate of $10M–$25M range).
Bsl3 Build $3.5M
[#11] Optional full BSL-3 facility build (midpoint estimate of $2M–$5M range).
Endowment Fund $2.5M
[#29] One-time endowment to fund long-term archiving/monitoring (~$2–3M to yield ~$100k/yr).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $500K
[#11] Baseline assumption: contract BSL-3/BSL-4 capacity or initial project funding rather than building an in-house high-containment lab; covers contracting/setup for initial experiments.
Excavation Intervention $500K
[#22] One-time cost reserved for possible localized excavation/structural reinforcement or initial cap/removal work (small intervention to mid-size operation).
Equipment $418K
[#2, #5, #9, #10, #15, #19, #20, #23] Padlocks/key-safe, remote monitoring hardware (cameras/sensors), non-invasive imaging (GPR/borehole cameras), robotic manipulators, autoclave/incinerator capital options, records/storage systems, initial document conservation/forensics, and acoustic monitoring hardware.
Contingency Reserve $250K
[#21] One-time contingency reserve for emergency containment, demolition/sealing or major response preparation.
Insurance Escrow $200K
[#28] One-time insurance/escrow/indemnity budget set-aside.
Facilities $189K
[#1, #3, #6, #7, #8] One-time perimeter fence/signage, initial welding/sealing of doors, power infrastructure capital, ventilation/scrubber installation, and initial tunnel remediation.
Legal And Compliance Initial $100K
[#17] One-time legal/compliance/ethical review, permits and external counsel for initial pathogen work and project approvals.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $511K/yr
Staff Wages $300K/yr
[#4, #12] Baseline security and small multidisciplinary research/maintenance/admin team salaries (6 guards + small on-call research/support complement in baseline staffing assumptions).
Cover Story And Legal $50K/yr
[#17, #18, #26] Ongoing legal retainer/compliance follow-up, cover-story maintenance, limited local liaison costs and basic public-normalcy monitoring to suppress inquiries.
Incident Response Readiness $50K/yr
[#21] Annual readiness/responsiveness funding for rapid-response teams, contractor retainers, and demolition/sealing readiness.
Research And Monitoring $30K/yr
[#9, #13, #24] Periodic non-invasive scans/contracted imaging events, modest research consumables for monitoring/assay, and annual mass-growth modelling/analysis in a baseline monitoring posture (no active in-lab infection campaign).
Facilities Maintenance $20K/yr
[#1, #3, #5, #6, #7, #8, #10, #19, #23] Fence/signage upkeep, periodic welding/NDT inspections and rework, comms/storage costs for monitoring, generator/battery fuel & servicing, ventilation filter replacement and maintenance, tunnel inspections/patching, robotics maintenance, records system upkeep, and acoustic analysis upkeep.
Waste Disposal $15K/yr
[#15] Contracted hazardous disposal and biohazard processing in baseline posture.
Supplies And Consumables $10K/yr
[#25] PPE replacements, spare locksets, welding rods, fasteners, fuel, vehicle maintenance, trash removal and other routine consumables.
Logistics And Transport $10K/yr
[#14] Secure sample transport, chain-of-custody escorts and certified packaging for occasional transfers in baseline operations.
Medical Surveillance $10K/yr
[#16] Baseline medical surveillance, annual physicals/serology and minimal prophylaxis stock maintenance for staff.
Records Management $8K/yr
[#19, #20] Ongoing digital/physical secure archives maintenance, redaction labor, and off-site backups.
Psychological Support $8K/yr
[#27] Counseling and mandatory rotation program costs to mitigate moral injury and leakage risk.
Bsl Ops $0/yr
[#11] Recurring BSL-3/BSL-4 operational costs (set to $0 in baseline; activated under research scenarios).
Insurance Replenishment $0/yr
[#28] Periodic replenishment of insurance/escrow as needed (baseline set to 0; one-time escrow already budgeted).
Endowment Payout $0/yr
[#29] Long-term archiving payout (baseline assumes endowment not yet deployed; recurring payout can be activated if endowment is funded).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $511K/yr
93.5% probability / year
Normal uneventful year with monitoring posture, no active in-lab infection campaign or major incident.
no active pathogen introduction routine monitoring no containment incidents
🚨 Research Campaign $1.8M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$1.2M vs baseline
Deliberate program to introduce disease to SCP-9790-3 (contracted BSL work or in-house operations), including contracted BSL projects, elevated consumables and legal/compliance costs.
decision to pursue pathogen introduction contracted BSL-3/BSL-4 work animal trials and expanded testing
🚨 Excavation Operation $1.1M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$550K vs baseline
Physical intervention to remove/isolate SCP-9790-3 requiring heavy machinery, excavation/capping and structural reinforcement.
decision to physically remove/cap detection of unacceptable mass growth or leakage local legal/permit approvals
🚨 Major Breach $1.5M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline
Containment failure or major incident requiring emergency demolition/sealing, PR/legal response, and extended remediation.
unexpected breach or tampering large public exposure uncontrolled spread of anomalous effects
👥 Personnel 11 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 6 24/7 onsite security: 2guards per shift × 3 shifts per day as specified in notes [#4].
Research Scientist 2 Small baseline multidisciplinary research/monitoring staff (microbiologist/analyst coverage) [#12, #13].
Engineer / Maintenance 1 Facilities, welding, ventilation and power maintenance coverage [#3, #6, #7, #8].
Medical Officer 1 Medical surveillance, prophylaxis and emergency readiness support [#16].
Administrative Staff 1 Logistics, records management and legal/compliance coordination support [#14, #19, #17].
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and ranges, enabling a medium-confidence estimate for baseline operations; significant uncertainty remains around choices to build versus contract BSL capacity, the decision to pursue infection campaigns, and the timing/magnitude of rare interventions or breaches.
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