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SCP-9900 Exspectate ? low confidence
SCP-9900
Expected annual
$131.8M
One-time setup
$229.2M
Annual recurring
$128.7M
Personnel
122
Estimated one-time capital and R&D costs total approximately $229.15M, with recurring annual costs of roughly $128.74M; the largest ongoing drivers are replacement hiring/opportunity costs, family/legal support and contingency, and persistent security/sensor/logistics operations.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $229.2M
Long Term Endowment $100.0M
[#27] Up-front multi-decade endowment for long-duration budgeting and program stability (baseline seed ~$100M).
Recruitment Incentives $50.0M
[#8] One-time up-front incentives and buyouts for ~500 candidates at ~$100k per recruit (planning / meaningful incentive).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $36.0M
[#1, #11, #24, #29] Detection/mapping R&D and lab buildout (~$20M), medical research lab setup (~$5M), experimental countermeasure R&D seed (~$10M), and a modest prize-fund seed (~$1M).
Facilities $32.1M
[#9, #14, #23] One-time construction costs: pre-joining training/clearing facility (~$2.0M), construction/hardening of multiple secure staging bases (3 bases @ ~$10M each ≈ $30.0M), and a mortuary/autopsy facility (~$150k).
Equipment $8.0M
[#3, #7, #15] Capital equipment purchases: field expedition craft fleet (~$6.0M), basic security/armour kit (~$1.0M), and communications hardware/resilient comms setup (~$1.0M).
Tracking Backend $1.0M
[#13] One-time backend and resilient-tagging system setup (server/backend, engineering for anomalous-survivable logging) ~ $1.0M.
Tracking Tags Purchase $1.0M
[#13] One-time purchase of non-bioactive anomalous-capable tracking tags (~500 tags @ ~$2k/tag ≈ $1.0M).
Archive Of Identities One Time $500K
[#30] One-time development of replacement/cover-identity archives and fabrication tooling (~$0.5M).
Data Archival Setup $500K
[#16] Initial archival/hardening setup for long-term data migration and resilient archives (~$0.5M).
Anomalous Transit Development $0
[#5] Optional/experimental direct anomalous-transit (portal/gate) development: not pursued under baseline (set to $0 here).
Surge Recruitment Campaign $0
[#22] Large-scale accelerated recruitment surge (mass incentives, rapid logistics) not executed in baseline (set to $0).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $128.7M/yr
Replacement Salary Burden $60.0M/yr
[#20] Opportunity cost / replacement hiring burden for personnel lost to the line (illustrative baseline per-note: ~500 specialists requiring replacement ≈ $60.0M/yr).
Cover Story And Legal $17.5M/yr
[#10, #18, #25] Family support / legal cover per-missing-person (~$30k/yr * ~500 candidates ≈ $15.0M) plus legal/ethics bureau staffing (~$1.0M) and false-incident orchestration / media cover (~$1.5M).
Emergency Reserve $16.8M/yr
[#21, #27] Rapid-response contingency reserve (15% of baseline recurring program expenditures as a multi-purpose emergency fund).
Staff Wages $12.0M/yr
[#6, #28] Salaries and benefits for core program staff: multidisciplinary field scientists, medics, pilots/crew, communications and administrative staff (~$12.0M/yr baseline).
Research And Monitoring $5.0M/yr
[#11, #16, #17, #24] Ongoing medical monitoring and longitudinal research, psychological programs, data-analysis staff and some recurring R&D budgets (~$5.0M/yr).
Facilities Maintenance $3.5M/yr
[#14, #9] Ongoing maintenance, hangarage, base upkeep and training-facility maintenance (~$3.5M/yr).
Persistent Sensor Network $2.0M/yr
[#2] Operation and telemetry/maintenance of distributed sensors, satellites, bandwidth and cloud for continuous monitoring (~$2.0M/yr).
Field Craft Operations $2.0M/yr
[#4] Fuel, maintenance, hangarage, pilots/crew ops and spare parts for expedition craft (~$2.0M/yr).
Security Contractors $2.0M/yr
[#7] Recurring contractor/security operating costs for active force protection and training (~$2.0M/yr baseline).
Logistics And Transport $1.5M/yr
[#26] Global logistics, warehousing, freight forwarding, customs smoothing and rapid redeployment (~$1.5M/yr).
Training And Screening Ops $1.0M/yr
[#9] Ongoing per-recruit screening, medical checks and training operations (scaled baseline ~$1.0M/yr).
Data Storage Ops $1.0M/yr
[#16] Ongoing data ingestion, long-term archiving operations and migration planning (~$1.0M/yr).
Recruitment Operations $1.0M/yr
[#19] Continuous volunteer sourcing, outreach and vetting (~$1.0M/yr).
Program Management Ops $1.0M/yr
[#28] Program management, auditors, interagency liaisons and administrative operational costs (~$1.0M/yr).
Supplies And Consumables $500K/yr
[#12] Candidate-side consumables and inert personal supplies (approx. $500/candidate/yr scaled for program plus misc supplies) and other consumables.
Tracking Operations $500K/yr
[#13] Operations and resiliency testing for tracking/tag backend and anomalous-capable tag telemetry (~$0.5M/yr).
Communications Ops $500K/yr
[#15] Operational costs for resilient communications channels and bandwidth (~$0.5M/yr).
Public Relations $500K/yr
[#25] PR and controlled narrative maintenance for locales where the end appears (~$0.5M/yr).
Prize Fund Annually $200K/yr
[#29] Ongoing prize/award disbursements to incentivize breakthroughs (~$0.2M/yr).
Archive Maintenance $200K/yr
[#30] Ongoing maintenance of identity archives and cover-identity operations (~$0.2M/yr).
Mortuary Ops $50K/yr
[#23] Per-incident and routine mortuary/autopsy operational costs (~$50k/yr baseline reserve).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $128.7M/yr
87.5% probability / year
Normal operational year with no major incidents; ongoing monitoring, staff wages, research and program maintenance only.
no breaches steady recruitment regular ops cadence
🚨 Minor Incident $129.7M/yr
10.0% probability / year +$1.0M vs baseline
Localized unexpected end appearance requiring emergency insertion, limited cleanup and accelerated research.
localized hazardous encounter limited equipment damage rapid-response deployments
🚨 Major Breach $153.7M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$25.0M vs baseline
Sustained hostile interactions with SCP-9900-1 instances or prolonged contested operations requiring heavy security, legal, and research surges.
sustained armed conflict major equipment loss extended legal exposure
🚨 Political Exposure $628.7M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$500.0M vs baseline
Nation-state-level public exposure or major political/legal escalation requiring large-scale remediation, buyouts and international diplomacy.
public leak / mass exposure state-level investigation international incident
👥 Personnel 122 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 20 Scientists conducting detection R&D, medical research and analysis; included in staff_wages.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 40 Field security teams and protective details; recurring contractor/security costs also budgeted separately.
Mobile Response / Field Crew 30 Pilots, medics, technicians and rapid-insertion operatives (distributed mobile teams); included in staff_wages and field_craft_operations.
Medical Officer 5 Medical monitoring and clinical oversight for candidates and staff.
Engineer / Maintenance 10 Equipment, vehicle and facilities maintenance engineers.
Administrative Staff 8 Program admin, HR, procurement and logistics support.
Program Manager / Executive Staff 3 Senior program managers, auditors and interagency liaisons.
Data / IT Personnel 6 Data engineers, archivists and IT operations (sensor data, archival maintenance).
📋 Confidence Notes
Costs are based on analyst ranges and a chosen medium-scale baseline (≈500 active candidates). The SCP is highly anomalous with wide, order-of-magnitude uncertainties (portal feasibility, breach dynamics, political exposure), so many line items use midpoint assumptions and optional items are set to $0 in baseline; overall confidence is low.
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