SCP-9909 — SCP-9909 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-9909 Cernunnos ? low confidence

SCP-9909

Expected annual

$8.1M

One-time setup

$10.5M

Annual recurring

$7.7M

Personnel

Initial capital investment is approximately $10.5M driven by lab build-out, containment upgrades, and surge-capex; recurring operations run roughly $7.45M/year, dominated by staff wages, field teams, buy-back/interdiction programs, and PR/legal support.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $10.5M

Facilities $3.0M

[#5, #12, #20] Vault build-outs, regional containment/secure-wing upgrades, and a portion of contingency-capital for facility hardening.

Scaling Surge Capex One Time $2.0M

[#25] One-time surge-capacity capital (temporary storage, expedited facilities) to enable medium/high scaling scenarios.

Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.9M

[#9] Lab build-out, isolation chambers, observation suites, and major laboratory instrumentation for controlled activation/testing.

Contingency Reserve One Time $1.0M

[#20] One-time contingency/reserve capital for emergency large-outbreak response or legal settlements.

R And D Deactivation One Time $850K

[#11] Prototype and development costs for remote/hard-disable technologies (engineering, field trials).

Webcrawler Development $750K

[#1] One-time engineering, model training, and deployment costs for the anomaly-detection webcrawler/AI stack.

Secure Transport Vehicle Purchase $260K

[#18] Purchase of secure vans/armored transport for seizure logistics (4 vehicles estimated).

Marketplace Program Setup $175K

[#22] One-time setup for marketplace/vendor cooperation program and initial outreach/NDAs.

Training Program Development $150K

[#16] Development of SOPs and initial training materials/program creation.

Forensic And Sensor Equipment One Time $120K

[#19] Portable high-frame-rate cameras, RF/EM probes, directional microphones, LIDAR/3D scanners purchase.

Data Analysis Workstation One Time $90K

[#24] Secure/air-gapped analysis workstation and software for projector-exchanged information decoding and secure forensics.

Inventory Management System One Time $88K

[#6] One-time purchase and deployment of barcoding, secure database, forensic imaging hardware.

Equipment $75K

[#18, #19, #5] Site-installed hardware (CCTV, reinforced locks, SCCM/inventory terminals) and small fixed equipment associated with storage sites.

Portable Inspection Kits Purchase $40K

[#4] Purchase of 20 portable inspection/seizure kits (PPE, lockout tools, probes, cases).

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $7.7M/yr

Staff Wages $3.1M/yr

[#2, #3, #10, #18] Monitoring analysts/triage team, 16 field operatives (4 regional teams), research staff and technicians, and drivers.

Scenario Scaling Reserve Recurring $1.0M/yr

[#25] Annual reserve to fund surge hiring, expanded buy-backs, emergency storage leases, and rapid PR/legal responses in medium/high spread years.

Buy Back Program $600K/yr

[#7] Ongoing purchase-interdiction/buy-back costs to intercept suspicious projector purchases (baseline volume estimate).

Field Incident Budget $500K/yr

[#23] Typical per-incident operational costs aggregated over expected annual incident count (travel, lodging, local liaison, evidence processing).

Logistics And Transport $350K/yr

[#3, #18] Travel & per-diem for field teams, fleet O&M, fuel, vehicle maintenance and per-trip secure logistics costs.

Research And Monitoring $325K/yr

[#10, #11, #24] Experiment consumables, ongoing R&D retrofit/rollout budget, and analyst time for controlled testing and monitoring tasks.

Public Relations Budget $300K/yr

[#14] Annual reserve for managed narratives, disinformation campaigns and media buys for larger incidents.

Facilities Maintenance $225K/yr

[#5, #12] Lease, security, climate control and maintenance for regional vaults and containment wings.

Cover Story And Legal $200K/yr

[#13] Legal retainer for covert ops compliance, liability management, and legal advice on cover-ups/transactions.

Covert Replacement Budget $200K/yr

[#8] Replacement units, small cover-up payments, service vouchers and immediate disruption costs per removal.

Insurance Premiums $200K/yr

[#20] Annual insurance premiums for field operations, liability and property cover.

Webcrawler Hosting $150K/yr

[#1] Hosting, data costs, model-ops and ongoing tuning for the webcrawler/AI monitoring stack.

Mental Health Program $150K/yr

[#17] Counseling, debriefing, psychiatric care and trauma services for exposed operatives and staff.

Marketplace Cooperation Payments $150K/yr

[#22] Ongoing cooperation payments to retailers/logistics partners for holds, flags, and covert handling.

Background Checks And Monitoring $60K/yr

[#15] Ongoing clearances, periodic polygraphs and personnel monitoring for higher-level staff.

Training Refresher $60K/yr

[#16] Annual refresher training costs per operative and delivery of SOP updates.

Evidence Destruction $50K/yr

[#21] Secure destruction/e-waste contractor fees for units that must be destroyed instead of stored.

Legal Incident Contingency $50K/yr

[#13] Annual small contingency for incident-specific legal payouts or settlements (separate from insurance and capital reserves).

Supplies And Consumables $28K/yr

[#4, #19] Kit replenishment and routine forensic consumables.

Inventory Management Maintenance $18K/yr

[#6] Annual maintenance, support and minor upgrades for the inventory/evidence processing systems.

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $7.7M/yr

84.5% probability / year

Normal year with ongoing monitoring, field responses at expected rates, and steady R&D progress; no major spread event.

low prevalence in retail channels routine incident volume no large coordinated insertion by adversaries

🚨 Minor Incident $7.7M/yr

12.0% probability / year +$22K vs baseline

Localized uptick in incidents requiring extra field responses, modest PR/legal activity, and temporary surge in buy-backs.

localized retail cluster outbreak media attention on isolated incidents

🚨 Major Spread $12.4M/yr

3.0% probability / year +$4.8M vs baseline

Medium-scale propagation (hundreds of units/year) requiring large buy-back/interdiction spend, expanded storage, and major PR/legal campaigns.

coordinated distribution via retail/logistics chaos-insurgency-style insertion

🚨 High Propagation $57.4M/yr

0.5% probability / year +$49.8M vs baseline

Severe outbreak with thousands of activations requiring mass buy-backs, emergency facilities, widespread PR/legal intervention, and major contingency spending.

large-scale retail compromise mass-casualty or exploitation events enabling exponential spread

👥 Personnel 37 total

Role	Count	Notes
Monitoring Analyst / Triage Team	5	[#2] Senior analyst plus junior analysts to review webcrawler alerts and coordinate responses.
Field Operative / MTF Agent	16	[#3] Four regional teams (3–4 operatives each) responsible for on-site inspections and seizures.
Research Scientist	6	[#10] Psychophysicists, memetics researchers and engineers conducting long-term R&D and experiments.
Engineer / Technician	3	[#9, #11] Lab technicians and engineering staff for prototype/deactivation rollouts and lab operations.
Driver / Courier	4	[#18] Secure transport drivers for seized units and logistics.
Administrative Staff	2	[#6, #5] Evidence clerks and limited site admin to manage inventory and custody.
Medical Officer / Mental Health Specialist	1	[#17] Provides counseling, debriefs and mental health care for exposed personnel.

📋 Confidence Notes

Estimates are low-confidence due to wide parameter ranges in the analyst notes, uncertain incident frequency, and high sensitivity to propagation rate and buy-back volumes.

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