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SCP-9911 Uncontained ? low confidence
SCP-9911
Expected annual
$408.0M
One-time setup
$1.6B
Annual recurring
$238.0M
Personnel
100
Initial capital is dominated by building and launching a specialized SelvOs telescope array and associated space/ground infrastructure (one-time ~ $1.6B). Recurring annual operations, staffing, launches, insurance and contingency reserves drive ongoing costs (~ $238M/yr), with rare scenarios capable of incurring hundreds of millions to tens of billions more.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.6B
Equipment $1.0B
[#2] Capital cost to design, fabricate, test, launch and commission the SelvOs L2 halo-orbit telescope array hardware (chosen representative near-mid scale of $500M–$3B range).
Robotic Servicer Development $300.0M
[#14] One-time development cost to design/contract robotic on-orbit servicing vehicles (estimate drawn from $200–600M).
Contingency Akiva Sink R&D Initial $100.0M
[#21] Initial concept-phase R&D for engineered Akiva sinks (speculative, selected conservative midpoint from $50–500M if pursued).
Facilities $83.0M
[#4, #7, #12] Ground-segment capital upgrades, secure facility hardening and on-Earth safety/containment structural engineering (selected mid-range estimates from provided $20–200M, $0.5–5M, $5–100M ranges).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $68.0M
[#5, #10, #11] One-time HPC cluster & storage provisioning ($5–30M), initial research program setup ($1–5M) and laboratory infrastructure/hardened test platforms ($10–150M) combined (mid-range picks).
Initial Spares $8.0M
[#17] Initial ground and on-orbit spares provisioning and hardware refresh staging (chosen mid-range of $1–20M).
Legal And Treaty One Time $2.5M
[#8] One-time legal/treaty preparation and contingency framework drafting (mid-range of $0.5–5M).
Insurance Initial Fees $2.0M
[#15] Initial policy placement / one-time insurance procurement fees (selected from $0.5–5M).
Archival Setup $2.0M
[#24] One-time multi-site archival and hardened media setup (selected midpoint of $0.5–5M).
Independent Audits One Time $500K
[#23] One-time independent audits and red-team baseline assessments ($0.2–1M range).
Planetary Defense Planning One Time $0
[#22] Planning for planetary-scale contingency is potentially unbounded (tens of billions to trillions); set to 0 here because costs are non-fungible/unbounded and only incurred under extreme global catastrophe.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $238.0M/yr
Facilities Maintenance $57.0M/yr
[#3, #4, #5, #7, #12] On-orbit operations & station-keeping, recurring deep-space comms/ground ops, HPC maintenance amortized, classified facility security ops, and containment-system maintenance (combined mid-range annual estimates).
Research And Monitoring $46.5M/yr
[#1, #10, #20] Baseline monitoring program (telescope ops, watchlists, data subscriptions), active theoretical/experimental research programs, and stakeholder/ethics outreach and consultation.
Logistics And Transport $40.0M/yr
[#13] Annualized cost of launches/launch-replacement cadence to L2 and procurement/resupply (amortized estimate based on periodic $60–500M launches every few years).
Staff Wages $20.0M/yr
[#6] Salaries, benefits and loaded costs for scientific, engineering and technical staff (representative ~100 FTEs at ~$200k loaded).
Robotic Servicer Annual $20.0M/yr
[#14] Annualized reserve/operational budget for on-orbit servicing missions and consumables per-mission costs (annualized provisioning for occasional missions).
Program Contingency Reserve $15.0M/yr
[#25] Budgetary contingency reserve (10–25% guidance applied to program; selected conservative ~15% of baseline operations).
Cover Story And Legal $13.0M/yr
[#8, #9] Recurring diplomacy/legal staff for international liaison and treaty management, plus publication monitoring, information control, and cover operations.
Contingency Sink R&D Annual $10.0M/yr
[#21] Ongoing speculative R&D funding for concept maturation of diversion/drain technologies (if pursued; otherwise could be set to 0).
Supplies And Consumables $6.5M/yr
[#11, #16, #17] Recurring lab consumables/maintenance for experiments, energy/utilities for data centers and ground ops, and spare parts/ground hardware refresh replenishment.
Insurance Annual $5.0M/yr
[#15] Annual insurance premiums and risk-management reserves for spacecraft and data assets ($1–20M range; mid selection).
Whistleblower And Relief Reserve $2.0M/yr
[#19] Recurring reserve fund for quiet reassignments, relocations, witness protection and contingencies.
Red Team And Audits Annual $1.5M/yr
[#23] Recurring independent audits, adversarial testing and program verification exercises.
Personnel Training $1.0M/yr
[#18] Ongoing training, drills, scenario planning and psychological resilience programs for staff.
Archival Recurring $500K/yr
[#24] Recurring cost for multi-site archival storage, redundancy and data sovereignty operations.
Planetary Defense Planning $0/yr
[#22] Ongoing planetary-scale mitigation planning is scenario-dependent and not funded in baseline; costs are effectively unbounded and would be budgeted only if escalation occurs.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $238.0M/yr
71.9% probability / year
Normal year of monitoring, research, routine ops and amortized launches with no major incidents.
routine_operations no_major_asset_loss steady_research_progress
🚨 Minor Incident $318.0M/yr
20.0% probability / year +$80.0M vs baseline
Localized loss or compromise (single satellite loss or data-exposure incident) requiring replacement launch, investigation and PR/legal response.
single_satellite_failure limited_data_leak minor_international_dispute
🚨 Major Breach $838.0M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$600.0M vs baseline
Significant asset loss or compromise (multiple satellites/major ground breach) requiring large-scale replacement and recovery operations.
multi-satellite_loss major_security_breach extended_mission_recovery
🚨 Research Breakthrough Requiring Scale Up $1.0B/yr
3.0% probability / year +$800.0M vs baseline
Discovery necessitates immediate, large-scale mitigation R&D and deployment (accelerated funding for engineered sinks or large infrastructure).
evidence_of_acceleration feasible_mitigation_signal policy_decision_to_scale
🚨 Catastrophic Planetary Escalation $100.2B/yr
0.1% probability / year +$100.0B vs baseline
Planetary-level crisis requiring national/global mitigation measures (evacuation, geoengineering, planetary defense-style programs).
runaway_accretion global_ecosystem_threat international_emergency_response
👥 Personnel 100 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 30 Astrophysicists and theoretical researchers for analysis and modeling of Akiva phenomena [#6].
Data Scientist / Analyst 20 Signal processing, ML model development and long-term data analysis for SelvOs outputs [#5, #1].
Engineer / Maintenance 20 Systems, mission-control, spacecraft ops, and ground-segment engineering staff (on-orbit ops & station-keeping) [#3, #4].
Tactical Theologian / Ontologist 10 Domain specialists in Akiva theory, ontokinetics and theological analysis supporting research and ethics [#6, #10].
Security Officer / MTF Agent 10 Classified program security, vetting and physical protection for facilities and assets [#7].
Administrative Staff 5 Program management, legal liaison, and administrative support (liaison with international partners) [#8].
Medical Officer 3 Medical and psychological support for personnel exposed to anomalous/faith-related content [#18].
Site Director / Executive Staff 2 Senior leadership and program oversight for Selva Oscura/Project Paradiso activities [#6].
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are low-confidence due to wide ranges in analyst notes, speculative technologies (ontokinetic detection, Akiva sinks), uncertain replacement cadences and the potential for extremely large, unbounded contingency costs; numbers use mid-range choices and conservative annualizations where possible.
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