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SCP-9930 Unknown ~ medium confidence
SCP-9930
Expected annual
$10.2B
One-time setup
$32.4B
Annual recurring
$7.0B
Personnel
12000
Corrected estimate: Foundation operational one-time costs ≈ $32.35 billion driven by global amnestic manufacture/distribution, large-scale data remediation, contingency/reserve and field operations; recurring Foundation operational costs ≈ $6.96 billion/year driven by staff wages, ongoing amnestic follow-ups, monitoring and platform operations. Separate systemic economic impact (not Foundation spend) estimated as ≈ $145 billion one-time and $10 billion/yr recurring. This report re‑allocates previously mis-categorized macro losses out of Foundation budgets and itemizes all >$1B drivers.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $32.4B
Amnestic Manufacture Distribution $12.0B
Itemized global amnestic program (total $12,000,000,000) covering: manufacturing scale-up and raw materials $4,000,000,000; QC, safety testing and regulatory engineering $1,000,000,000; packaging, secure warehousing and cold-chain logistics $2,000,000,000; mass administration campaigns (deployment teams, local medical coordination, secure distribution to national partners) $5,000,000,000. These are operational costs the Foundation would plausibly incur and are itemized because >$1B.
Contingency Reserve $5.0B
Operational contingency reserve for unforeseen escalation, re-containment and failed countermeasures. Set at an explicit dollar value rather than a vague percentage to ensure transparency.
Offline Media Remediation $3.0B
Buy-back/replacement, redaction and archive remediation programs for physical media (libraries, newspapers, film reels). Itemized to reflect high per-item cost of analog remediation; program scoped for prioritized collections, not literal global eradication.
Healthcare Initial Surge $3.0B
Initial surge medical care, hospitalizations and emergency psychiatric treatment for affected individuals (triage, inpatient costs, emergency transport, short-term compensation pools).
Data Scrubbing Initial $2.0B
Large-scale paid deletion and archival remediation across accessible cloud backups and CDN caches (itemized: cloud backup removals $800,000,000; paid deletion/restoration/legal operations $700,000,000; institutional/archive engagement $500,000,000). Full eradication of all offline/immutable backups is infeasible; costs reflect reachable systems.
Platform Cooperation Fees $1.5B
Initial payments and contracted takedown programs (itemized: cloud provider compensation $800,000,000; carrier indemnities $400,000,000; ISP backbone contracts $200,000,000; contract/legal processing $100,000,000). Itemized to avoid single large hand-wave figure.
Equipment $1.2B
High-performance compute capacity, storage arrays and network appliance procurement (breakdown: compute & storage build $600,000,000; network/edge filter appliances $300,000,000; field monitoring hardware $300,000,000). Itemized to comply with large-cost breakdown requirements.
Legal Settlements Initial $1.0B
Upfront indemnities and initial large settlements to limit publicity and to settle institution-level claims; entered as Foundation operational expense when payments or indemnities are issued by the Foundation.
Legal Diplomacy Ops $800.0M
Diplomatic liaison and legal operations to secure emergency orders and multilateral cooperation (itemized: diplomatic liaison teams $200,000,000; emergency legislative/legal drafting & counsel $200,000,000; targeted inducements/covert support for cooperative states $400,000,000).
Emergency Field Deployments Initial $700.0M
Initial global field operations and containment team deployments (itemized: MTF-level operations $400,000,000; local force cooperation & liaison $150,000,000; device seizure/secure storage logistics $150,000,000).
Ai Filter Development $600.0M
One-time model development, multilingual/multimodal finetuning, initial GPU training runs and integration engineering work for major global platforms and vendor toolchains.
Covert Payments Initial $500.0M
Immediate hush payments, NDAs and relocation assistance for high-risk influencers, whistleblowers and key individuals (limited, targeted fund).
Facilities $400.0M
Secure lab construction, accreditation, geographically separated redundancy/control centers and related site work for forensic and continuity operations.
Device Remediation Initial $250.0M
Vendor engineering and carrier push infrastructure to remove cached copies on cooperative device ecosystems and to push MDM/enrollment where possible.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $200.0M
Air-gapped forensic lab fit-out, specialized instrumentation, classified enclaves, and initial datasets/forensic tool licenses.
Media Campaigns Initial $200.0M
Initial purchase of replacement narratives, targeted sponsored content, and influencer engagement to redirect public attention where feasible (note: see cover_story_and_legal recurring entry for concealment feasibility discussion).
Infeasibility Infinite Tail $0
Acknowledgement that absolute, provably-complete erasure of 'humanity's collective record' is functionally unbounded. No finite Foundation cost is assigned to the 'infinite-tail' eradication objective per Rule 2/analyst guidance; Foundation budgets instead for indefinite monitoring and mitigation.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $7.0B/yr
Amnestic Followups $1.5B/yr
Follow-up and booster amnestic campaigns, periodic re-administration logistics, ongoing medical oversight and coordination with national health partners.
Staff Wages $1.2B/yr
Salaries, benefits and fully-loaded costs for operational staff (breakdown: total headcount 12,000; average fully-loaded cost ≈ $100,000/year; see Personnel section).
Research And Monitoring $600.0M/yr
Ongoing monitoring platform costs, retraining AIC models, data ingestion pipelines and funded controlled research grants tied directly to Foundation operations.
Healthcare Ongoing $500.0M/yr
Continuing medical and psychiatric care, long-term disability compensation pools and rehabilitation programs for affected individuals.
Contingency Replenishment $500.0M/yr
Annual replenishment of contingency funds to ensure readiness for medium-scale resurgences.
Monitoring Ops $400.0M/yr
SIGINT/OSINT collection tasking, analyst staffing, ETL and continuous monitoring for re-emergent mentions across clear and covert channels.
Platform Maintenance $300.0M/yr
Operational takedown processing at scale, ongoing indemnities/payments to providers for maintenance of emergency takedown pathways and administrative handling.
Ai Ops $250.0M/yr
Hosting, inference, retraining and ops costs for deployed AIC filters and moderation pipelines.
Logistics And Transport $200.0M/yr
Travel, freight, secure transport, and ongoing field deployment logistics.
Diplomatic Compliance $200.0M/yr
Ongoing liaison teams, recurrent inducements/compliance payments and legal updates to maintain government cooperation (distinct from impossible global cover-up).
Legal Defense And Settlements Ongoing $200.0M/yr
Ongoing legal defense, insurance premiums and periodic settlements related to operational activities and public incidents.
Cultural Remediation $200.0M/yr
Long-term education programs, archive re-indexing and cultural remediation in prioritized countries/regions (explicitly not an attempt at total eradication).
Compute Ops Storage $150.0M/yr
Datacenter power, replication, and maintenance for continuous redaction and analysis workloads.
Edge Filters Ops $150.0M/yr
Ongoing operation and compensation for hosted edge/backbone filters where providers cooperate.
Facilities Maintenance $120.0M/yr
Utilities, security, accreditation and routine maintenance for secure labs, data centers and redundancy/control centers.
Data Scrubbing Ongoing $100.0M/yr
Recurring work to handle newly discovered backups, periodic paid deletion requests, and targeted archival engagements.
Personnel Security $100.0M/yr
Vetting, counter-intel and protective relocation costs for key personnel and high-value operatives.
Supplies And Consumables $50.0M/yr
Medical supplies, field consumables, replacement parts and disposables for deployments and lab operations.
Device Followups $50.0M/yr
Ongoing vendor coordination and limited forced-wipe/patch follow-ups for newly discovered or non-cooperative devices.
Offline Media Remediation Ongoing $50.0M/yr
Small ongoing programs for library/archive redactions and periodic buy-back campaigns on prioritized collections.
Research Grants $50.0M/yr
Targeted grants to independent researchers and controlled external groups to shepherd research and reduce uncontrolled publication risk.
Media Campaigns Ongoing $30.0M/yr
Targeted, realistic narrative management in high-risk pockets where small-scale influence is plausible; deliberately limited because broad concealment is infeasible.
Hush Funds Ongoing $30.0M/yr
Small recurring stipends and monitoring for relocated or paid individuals to limit leaks; tightly controlled and purpose-limited.
Redundancy Maintenance $30.0M/yr
Maintenance of duplicate control centers, emergency comms and continuity teams.
Cover Story And Legal $0/yr
Set to $0 because full concealment/cover-up is not realistically possible for all observable physical consequences of SCP-9930 (global blackouts, ISS visibility loss, sea-level changes and large-scale disappearances would be observed independently by many uncoordinated witnesses and sensors). Per Rule 3, line items whose purpose is impossible (total cover-up) are zeroed; the Foundation instead invests in amnestic administration, technical mitigation and targeted legal/diplomatic efforts (those are budgeted elsewhere).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $7.0B/yr
88.0% probability / year
Steady-state recurring operational posture after initial one-time programs: continuous monitoring, moderate follow-up amnestic campaigns, normal platform cooperation and routine remediation.
no_major_breach sustained_platform_cooperation containment_effective_at_monitoring_scale
🚨 Minor Incident $8.2B/yr
9.0% probability / year +$1.2B vs baseline
Localized resurgence or variant leading to intensified remediation in limited regions requiring extra field deployments and targeted amnestic boosters.
localized_resurgence failed_takedown_of_region viral_reposting_wave_in_high_population_area
🚨 Major Breach $44.0B/yr
2.0% probability / year +$37.0B vs baseline
Widespread public awareness in multiple countries causing large healthcare surge, mass litigation and an emergency global remediation push.
platforms_noncooperative major_leak_to_global_mainstream_media large_public_incident_and_class_actions
🚨 Catastrophic Global Resurgence $247.0B/yr
1.0% probability / year +$240.0B vs baseline
Near-global failure of containment leading to emergency global amnestic mobilization, mass compensation, major indemnities and long-term systemic response.
global_platform_failure widespread_public_knowledge systemic_economic_disruption_and_mass_litigation
👥 Personnel 12000 total
Role Count Notes
Human Moderators / Content Moderation Workforce 7000 Frontline multi-lingual moderators and rapid-response takedown teams; majority of recurring wage load.
Cyber Analysts / Memetics Specialists 2000 SIGINT/OSINT analysts, model specialists, memetics researchers and threat analysts.
Security Officer / MTF Agent 1000 Field containment teams, tactical operatives, and protective details for high-risk operations.
Research Scientist 800 Forensic researchers, lab scientists, and funded academics working on controlled reproduction and analysis.
Engineer / Maintenance 600 DevOps, datacenter engineers, device remediation engineers and field equipment maintenance.
Medical Officer 200 Medical and psychiatric staff for treatment, oversight of amnestic administration and clinical trials.
Administrative Staff 400 Program administration, legal processing, PR coordination and liaison officers.
📋 Confidence Notes
This re-evaluation corrected two principal issues in the original stage-2 report: (1) systemic economic impacts previously placed inside Foundation operational totals have been moved to a separate 'systemic_economic_impact' bucket (per Rule 4), and (2) all >$1B Foundation costs are itemized into subcomponents to avoid hand-wavy round numbers (per Rule 1). Cover-story/concealment budget lines that would attempt total, global concealment have been zeroed with justification (per Rule 3); realistic Foundation alternatives (amnestic programs, diplomatic compliance, targeted PR) are costed. Remaining uncertainty arises from unknown triggers, the possibility of undiscoverable offline copies, and wide variance in real-world cooperation from sovereign actors; these drive the medium confidence rating.
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