SCP-9931 — SCP-9931 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-9931 Unknown ~ medium confidence

SCP-9931

Expected annual

$8.3M

One-time setup

$8.6M

Annual recurring

$8.2M

Personnel

Initial, one-time setup estimated at roughly $8.64M driven by excavation, vault construction, AI compute, and contingency reserves; ongoing annual operations are estimated at ~$6.15M/yr driven by specialist wages, AI operations, MTF deployments, and program overhead.

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $8.6M

Crisis Response Reserve $2.8M

[#29] Crisis response & escalation fund (reserve for emergency containment upgrades, relocation, neutralization).

Equipment $1.7M

[#4, #8, #9, #17, #18, #20, #28] Environmental control & conservation equipment (HVAC, HEPA, nitrogen purge), high-resolution imaging scanners, initial AI compute servers & secure enclaves, containment monitoring hardware, redundant containment crates/locks, initial data backup hardware, and initial secure comms hardware.

Insurance Reserve $1.1M

[#23] One-time insurance / legal reserve (operating reserve held).

Excavation And Retrieval $1.1M

[#1] Secure excavation and retrieval operations for SCP-9931-1 through -4 (72m coring, crane, site stabilization) — midpoint estimate across four retrievals.

Clearance Onboarding $735K

[#15] One-time onboarding costs (background checks, polygraphs, security-clearance onboarding) for core team (~42 personnel at midpoint onboarding cost).

Facilities $500K

[#3] Medium-security archeological storage construction/upgrade (one vault room).

Initial Research And Lab Setup $278K

[#6, #7, #21] Forensic/materials analysis campaign, radiometric/stratigraphic studies sampling and lab fees, and upfront external contract payments for specialized testing.

Initial Secure Transport $190K

[#2] Armored/escorted transport initial moves from dig sites to containment (4 loads, midpoint per-load).

Conservation Initial $150K

[#5] Initial conservation/restoration labor and materials (stabilization, baths, passivation).

Hazard Mitigation Initial $88K

[#22] Initial hazmat response equipment, decontamination setup, and initial drills.

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $8.2M/yr

Staff Wages $4.4M/yr

[#10, #12, #13, #14, #26, #30] Salaries for AI engineers/data scientists/linguists, core specialized scientists and conservators, MTF staffing, embedded field agents, transcription/review teams, and program management/admin staff (aggregated).

Mtf Operations $800K/yr

[#13] Mobile Task Force operational costs (training, gear, transport, maintenance) for deployed team(s).

Research And Monitoring $462K/yr

[#6, #7, #9, #19, #21, #26] Ongoing lab operations and external testing fees, AI inference/decoding operations, long-term curation/cataloguing, and contracted scientific collaboration and transcription efforts.

Embedded Field Agents Program $400K/yr

[#14] Salaries, cover identities, travel, and safehouse costs for three embedded field agents.

Cover Story And Legal $300K/yr

[#16] Legal, diplomatic, and cover operations (cover companies, lawyering, regulatory filings, payments to local authorities, PR).

Program Management And Overhead Nonwage $240K/yr

[#30] Non-wage portion of program overhead (facilities utilities beyond energy, waste disposal, accounting, and administrative consumables).

Scientific Collaboration And Contracts $225K/yr

[#21] Recurring payments for national-lab time, synchrotron access, external consultants and travel/per-diem for collaborative work.

Energy Consumption $205K/yr

[#24] Electricity for climate control, servers (AI compute), and lab equipment.

Containment Monitoring And Soc Ops $188K/yr

[#17] 24/7 SOC staffing, camera/seismic/moisture sensor operations, and tamper-alarm monitoring.

Archival Transcription And Review $188K/yr

[#26] Human transcription, translation, and review teams for AI-deciphered outputs.

Logistics And Transport $172K/yr

[#2, #25] Recurring secure transport for occasional removals plus secure travel and researcher transport/per-diems.

Cybersecurity And Hosting $125K/yr

[#11] Secure hosting, intrusion detection, penetration testing, audits, and crypto key management for server 181519520201 and AI systems.

Transportation And Travel $125K/yr

[#25] Secure travel costs for researchers and visiting personnel (air, ground, quarantine stays).

Vetting And Personnel Monitoring $100K/yr

[#15] Ongoing continuous monitoring, psychological screening, and counterintelligence for cleared personnel.

Facilities Maintenance $95K/yr

[#4, #18, #20, #22] HVAC/humidity system upkeep, containment seals and crate maintenance, offsite backup storage rotation, and periodic hazard-mitigation upkeep/drills.

Supplies And Consumables $50K/yr

[#5, #27] Conservation consumables, stabilizing chemicals, lab consumables, and small equipment replacement.

Hazard Mitigation Drills $50K/yr

[#22] Annual emergency drills, PPE replenishment, and decontamination equipment upkeep.

Miscellaneous Operational Consumables $30K/yr

[#27] Lab consumables, solvents, PPE, batteries, and small replacement items.

Communications Ops $30K/yr

[#28] Recurring satlink / encrypted radio subscriptions and comms maintenance.

Physical Containment Maintenance Nonwage $18K/yr

[#18] Annual maintenance on transport locks, shock mounts, and redundant seals (non-wage portion).

Data Backup And Rotation $15K/yr

[#20] Offsite encrypted air-gapped backup storage rotation and archival upkeep.

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $8.2M/yr

80.0% probability / year

Normal year: ongoing research, scheduled maintenance, routine transports, and no major incidents.

routine_research scheduled_maintenance periodic_transports

🚨 Minor Incident $6.6M/yr

12.0% probability / year +$-1590000 vs baseline

Localized incident requiring emergency conservation, an additional secure excavation/transport, and elevated PR/legal actions.

small_containment_breach unexpected_degradation additional_retrieval

🚨 Research Scale Up $8.6M/yr

5.0% probability / year +$410K vs baseline

Major validated breakthrough or decision to scale research: additional AI compute, hires, and expanded external contracts.

major_deciphering_breakthrough funded_scaleup expanded_collaboration

🚨 Major Breach $16.1M/yr

3.0% probability / year +$7.9M vs baseline

Large containment failure or public exposure requiring emergency neutralization, large-scale relocation, international operations and major cover-up/legal payouts.

containment_failure public_exposure international_response

👥 Personnel 42 total

Role	Count	Notes
Research Scientist / Specialist	9	[#12] Archaeologists, paleontologists, materials scientists, corrosion specialists, conservators and domain researchers.
AI Engineer / Data Scientist	5	[#10] AI engineers, data scientists, and linguists supporting Bouchard.aic, Champollion.aic, and analysis workflows.
Security Officer / MTF Agent	12	[#13] Mobile Task Force personnel for field operations, retrievals, and site security.
Embedded Field Agent	3	[#14] Long-term embedded agents at Locations of Interest for surveillance and retrieval assistance.
SOC / Security Analyst	8	[#17] Security Operations Center staff for 24/7 monitoring of containment sensors and alerts.
Program Manager / Administrative Staff	3	[#30] Project managers, administrative staff, and accounting overhead for SCP-9931 program.
Engineer / Maintenance	2	[#18, #4] Facilities and equipment maintenance engineers (HVAC, containment systems, lab equipment).

📋 Confidence Notes

Estimates use midpoints of broad ranges in analyst notes and aggregate combined-cost line items; SCP-9931 is anomalous with uncertain future scaling (possible large-cost tail events), so there is moderate uncertainty in both one-time capex and recurring operational needs.

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