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SCP-9938 Pending ~ medium confidence
SCP-9938
Expected annual
$4.5B
One-time setup
$2.5B
Annual recurring
$4.3B
Personnel
200
Initial program requires substantial capital to build specialized noospheric containment and logistics assets (~$2.49B one-time) with large recurring expenditures (~$4.34B/yr), driven primarily by humanitarian assistance, strategic logistics/fleet operations, economic stabilization grants, and ongoing research/induction operations.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $2.5B
Replacement Construct Development $850.0M
[#22] One-time R&D and pilot rollouts for development of a replacement ontological construct.
Public Rollout One Time $600.0M
[#14] One-time mass rollout / re-education campaign and materials production if reintegration or replacement is approved.
Strategic Logistics Procurement $300.0M
[#7] One-time procurement/charter commitments for dedicated aircraft, ships and ground fleet.
Contingency Reserve $200.0M
[#27] Reserved capital / financial contingencies to fund urgent operations across disrupted markets.
Noospheric Induction Upgrade $175.0M
[#2] One-time R&D and capital retrofit to accept non-custom-made concepts (stimulation chambers, BCI, interlocks).
Facilities $100.0M
[#1] Purpose-built memetic/noospheric facility with Faraday/anti-memetic shielding, isolated suites, HVAC/decon airlocks, secure vaults and living quarters.
Equipment $77.0M
[#3, #8, #15, #30] Air-gapped HPC, cryptographic storage, analog backups; encrypted satellite/ground comms acquisition; LIDAR/drones/ROVs/submersibles; simulation/modeling tool acquisition.
Emergency Response Reserve $50.0M
[#11] Liquid rapid-response reserve for containment failure, QRFs, quarantine shelters and equipment replacement.
Initial Field Recovery Surge $30.0M
[#5] One-time surge funding for initial intensive archaeology/anthropology/maritime recovery.
Anomalous Materials Acquisition $25.0M
[#26] Acquisition of anomalous materials/resources requiring special vaults and custodial care.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $24.0M
[#24, #23, #10] Intensive archive analysis startup, training/simulation suite setup, and single large-scale trial campaign startup costs.
Cover Story Initial Crisis Fund $20.0M
[#9] Initial crisis funds for media/legal cover and immediate information operations.
Survivors Aids Production $15.0M
[#19] One-time manufacturing of low-tech survivor aids (maps, seed kits, printed manuals).
Energy Resilience Infrastructure $15.0M
[#16] Generators, fuel storage, microgrids and renewables installations for continuous power at labs and remote stations.
Physical Archival Redundancy $6.0M
[#17] Cataloging/duplication for hardened physical archives and distributed vaults.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $4.3B/yr
Humanitarian Assistance $1.2B/yr
[#6] Large-scale food, water, medical aid, refugee camps and logistics to mitigate IK-class collapse effects.
Opportunity Costs $1.0B/yr
[#28] Long-term societal reintegration and restoration programmatic commitments (spread over multiple years).
Economic Stabilization Grants $750.0M/yr
[#13] Targeted monetary interventions (grants, loans, market stabilizers) to prevent state collapse and keep supply lines open.
Logistics And Transport $438.0M/yr
[#5, #7, #15] Field team travel/equipment/ROV ops and dedicated fleet operations (crew, fuel, maintenance, insurance) and specialized equipment operational costs.
Containment Secondary Effects $275.0M/yr
[#25] Environmental cleanup, infrastructure repair and hazard removal from mass abandonment areas.
Replacement Construct Implementation $175.0M/yr
[#22] Ongoing staged implementation/translation/local adaptation costs if a replacement construct is being rolled out.
Cover Story And Legal $130.0M/yr
[#9, #12] Ongoing information operations, media cooperation, legal counsel, covert payments and diplomatic/bribery/compensation funds.
Public Rollout Maintenance $125.0M/yr
[#14] Maintenance of public re-education, curricula updates, induction campaign upkeep after a rollout.
Research And Monitoring $85.0M/yr
[#2, #3, #10, #21, #24, #30, #18, #23] Noospheric induction operations, HPC maintenance, ongoing integration testing programs, memetic safety systems, archival analysis continuation, simulation compute & licenses, and external research partnerships; includes training running costs.
Psychological Care $45.0M/yr
[#20] Mass trauma response, counseling programs, tele-mental health and training local counselors.
Staff Wages $30.0M/yr
[#4] Salaries, benefits and relocation for core multidisciplinary workforce (150–250 staff).
Supplies And Consumables $15.0M/yr
[#29] PPE, reagents, vehicle fuel, office supplies, translations, local permits and routine operational consumables.
Facilities Maintenance $10.0M/yr
[#1, #16] Ongoing maintenance of containment facility infrastructure and energy resilience operations (fuel/maintenance).
Survivors Aids Distribution $6.0M/yr
[#19] Recurring distribution costs for low-tech survivor aids and replacement production runs.
Anomalous Materials Custody $3.0M/yr
[#26] Custody, special vault maintenance and custodial care costs for anomalous acquisitions.
Archival Storage Rotation $1.0M/yr
[#17] Ongoing storage, rotation and media refresh for hardened physical archives.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $4.3B/yr
83.0% probability / year
Normal operational year with no major incidents; ongoing containment, research, humanitarian and logistics operations proceed as planned.
steady_state_operations no_major_breach regular_research_cycle
🚨 Minor Incident $4.5B/yr
10.0% probability / year +$200.0M vs baseline
Localized containment failure or failed integration trial requiring emergency response, limited evacuation, equipment replacement and targeted humanitarian surge.
localized_breach failed_integration_trial targeted_humanitarian_surge
🚨 Major Breach $6.3B/yr
2.0% probability / year +$2.0B vs baseline
Significant containment breach or cascading societal collapse in multiple regions requiring mass evacuation, large-scale humanitarian response and emergency implementation of replacement constructs.
multi-regional_breach mass_casualty_evacuations accelerated_replacement_rollout
🚨 Research Breakthrough Requiring Scale Up $5.8B/yr
5.0% probability / year +$1.5B vs baseline
A viable reconstruction or replacement construct is validated and Foundation commits to a large-scale rollout and global induction program requiring major additional funding.
successful_reconstruction approval_for_global_scale_up mass_induction_program
👥 Personnel 200 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist 40 [#4] Senior PIs and domain scientists performing reconstruction and testing.
Memeticists 30 [#4] Specialists in memetics/noospheric analysis and safety.
Lab Technicians 40 [#4] Technical staff supporting experiments and monitoring.
Software Engineer 20 [#4] HPC/simulation, storage and BCI systems development and maintenance.
Engineer / Maintenance 20 [#4] Facility, HVAC, power and ROV/field equipment maintenance.
Field Operators / MTF Agents 20 [#4, #5, #7] Recovery teams, maritime operators and field deployment personnel.
Administrative Staff 15 [#4] Logistics, procurement, HR and administrative support.
Ethicists / Compliance 5 [#4] Oversight, consent and protocol compliance for induction/testing.
Senior PIs / Leadership 5 [#4] Program leadership and decision-making.
Medical Officer 5 [#4] Clinical monitoring for volunteers and affected populations.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items and plausible ranges, but the SCP's memetic/noospheric nature and dependency on political/humanitarian dynamics introduce large uncertainties and long tails, so estimates are midpoint-based and approximate.
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