SCP-1290 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-1290
Expected annual
$11.2M
One-time setup
$126.2M
Annual recurring
$10.2M
Personnel
62
One-time capital costs are estimated at ~$126.2M driven mainly by reinforced vault construction, ballistic capture systems, and prototype/R&D capital; annual recurring operations are estimated at ~$10.225M/yr driven by security, research staff, and maintenance/monitoring.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $126.2M
Facilities $45.0M
[#1] Excavation and construction of underground reinforced concrete/steel vaults for two sites (Colombia + Singapore), ballistic arrestor wells, blast doors, vibration isolation and redundancy.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $26.6M
[#8, #9, #24] High-end lab instrument initial outfitting; HPC purchase/setup; capital for a prototype development/replication R&D program (multi-year capital investment).
Ballistic Capture Systems $11.0M
[#4] Design and build of high-performance active ballistic capture/arrestor systems for two sites (options include hydraulic, electromagnetic, sacrificial arrester beds).
Contingency Reserve $11.0M
[#12] Emergency/containment contingency fund reserved for major containment failure, cleanup, demolition, or covert response.
Decommissioning One Time $11.0M
[#25] Long-term decommissioning capital (safe device removal, demolition/remediation) estimated per-site and aggregated.
Miscellaneous Buffer One Time $8.0M
[#26] Miscellaneous contingency and inflation buffer (recommended 10–25% of planned budget).
Equipment $6.3M
[#2, #3, #6, #15, #21] Transport/installation and mounting of main units and platforms; dedicated generator systems (hardware/install); installation of redundant cameras/sensors and Faraday cages; cybersecurity/hardened comms setup; environmental monitoring hardware setup.
Local Permits And Land Acquisition $5.8M
[#13] Initial land/lease acquisition and jurisdictional costs for Colombia and Singapore sites (upfront purchases/leases, legal work to establish front companies and acquire covert property).
Covert Operations To Locate Engineer $1.5M
[#14] One-time field ops, investigations, bounties, and covert missions to locate Dr. [REDACTED].
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $10.2M/yr
Staff Wages $4.0M/yr
[#5, #7, #11] 24/7 armed security contractors and MTF rotations; research staff salaries (PIs, senior researchers, technicians); partial medical staff salaries included here.
Research And Monitoring $2.4M/yr
[#8, #9, #10, #24, #21] Ongoing consumables/calibration/support; HPC licenses/maintenance; controlled-test hardware program budget; annual R&D program expenditures for prototype development; recurring environmental/data monitoring costs.
Facilities Maintenance $1.2M/yr
[#3, #4, #6, #17, #18, #21] Generator fuel and maintenance, sacrificial capture component replacements, sensor/camera maintenance, continuous HVAC/climate control power, routine mechanical maintenance and environmental monitoring upkeep.
Cover Story And Legal $700K/yr
[#13, #20] Ongoing legal fees, front-company maintenance, PR/cover operations, community mitigation and reputation management.
Logistics And Transport $500K/yr
[#16] Heavy-lift charters, secure freight, international shipping and cover logistics between Colombia, Singapore and central sites.
Medical And Medevac $400K/yr
[#11] On-site medical staffing/equipment, trauma readiness, and medevac contract retainer costs.
Misc Contingency Buffer Replenish $300K/yr
[#26] Annual buffer replenishment to offset inflation and unforeseen recurring expenses.
Insurance And Indemnities $250K/yr
[#19] Insurance-like reserves, legal indemnities, and contingency bonds (where feasible) to address third-party claims and liabilities.
Supplies And Consumables $200K/yr
[#8, #18] Consumables for lab instruments, calibration supplies, PPE, and small spare parts.
Cybersecurity And Secure Communications $125K/yr
[#15] Annual maintenance, audits, and secure/satellite communications support for hardened networks.
Training And Drills $75K/yr
[#22] Regular emergency protocol training, MTF exercises, and simulation drills.
Decontamination And Hazardous Waste $50K/yr
[#23] Annual budget for disposal of contaminated/destroyed test articles and hazardous waste contracting per event.
Contingency Replenishment $0/yr
[#12] Contingency reserve replenishment as-used; held at zero baseline until reserve expenditures occur.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $10.2M/yr
82.0% probability / year
Normal year with no major incidents; ongoing operations, monitoring, and scheduled testing at typical cadence.
no significant activations routine maintenance and scheduled tests only
🚨 Minor Incident $10.8M/yr
12.0% probability / year +$600K vs baseline
Limited activation or test event causing equipment damage, sacrificial component replacement, medical treatment and localized cleanup.
single significant test event sacrificial component replacement minor facility repairs and decon
🚨 Major Breach $25.2M/yr
6.0% probability / year +$15.0M vs baseline
Unexpected active activation causes casualties, major facility damage, large-scale cleanup and legal/cover operations.
accidental activation at high velocity structural damage and third-party impact major containment response and remediation
👥 Personnel 62 total
Role Count Notes
Security Contractor 40 [#5] Local 24/7 armed security contractors (approx. 16–24 guards/site; aggregated across both sites).
MTF / Specialized Operators 6 [#5] Mobile Task Force rotations and specialized anti-sabotage teams (higher-pay specialized staff shared across sites).
Research Scientist (Lead) 1 [#7] Principal investigator / lead scientist overseeing reverse-engineering.
Research Scientist (Senior) 4 [#7] Senior researchers/engineers engaged in analysis and experimental design.
Research Technician 6 [#7] Technicians for 24/7 data monitoring, instrument operation and test support.
Engineer / Maintenance 2 [#2, #3, #18] On-site engineers and maintenance staff for mechanical, electrical and generator systems.
Medical Officer 1 [#11] On-site medical readiness and trauma stabilization staffing.
Administrative Staff 2 [#13, #20] Administrative and cover-company support, legal/PR liaisons.
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line items but many wide ranges (construction in Singapore, choice of capture technology, frequency of testing) and anomalous-technology uncertainty leave moderate confidence in point estimates.
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