SCP-1821 — SCP-1821 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-1821 Safe ? low confidence

SCP-1821

Expected annual

$8.7M

One-time setup

$728.3M

Annual recurring

$7.3M

Personnel

Initial capital and engineering (custom high-pressure tank, reservoir, DOCC/ROV systems) drive up-front costs into the hundreds of millions; recurring costs are dominated by specialized 24/7 staff, continuous power/chiller operation, and insurance/maintenance (~$7.3M/year).

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $728.3M

Facilities $437.2M

[#1, #10, #13, #26, #29] Structural fabrication and site civil work: high-pressure tank construction, reservoir earthworks, initial perimeter/security infrastructure, community/land mitigation and decommissioning reserve.

Large Uncertainty Premium $242.8M

[#30] Engineering/unknown-risk premium (50% of other one-time subtotal) to address high technical uncertainty and exotic-spec risk.

Equipment $35.1M

[#2, #3, #4, #5, #6, #7, #17, #18, #24] DOCC procurement/integration, pressure-rated penetrations/windows, industrial chillers, pressurization systems, IR kit, hydrophones/transducers, inside-tank ROVs, power generation/UPS and initial secure recording servers.

Contingency Reserve Seed $10.0M

[#21] Seeded contingency reserve for emergency response, replacement and site risk.

Initial Spare Parts $1.0M

[#23] Initial inventory of critical seals, valves, transducers and spare motors.

Emergency Response Equipment $1.0M

[#25] Rapid-response equipment, vessels, sonar arrays and readiness hardware purchases.

Aerial Surveillance Setup $500K

[#12] Helicam/drone program setup, permits, NOTAM filings and program integration.

Reservoir Fill $200K

[#11] Initial pumping/filling operations and associated logistics.

Permitting And Environmental Assessments $200K

[#19] Environmental impact assessments, consultant fees and permitting work.

Legal Public Affairs Initial $200K

[#20] Initial cover-story, legal engagement, buyouts/NDAs and public affairs setup.

Staff Training Initial $100K

[#15] Initial specialized training and certification for high-pressure systems, ROV operation and animal care.

Initial Research And Lab Setup $0

[]

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $7.3M/yr

Staff Wages $2.5M/yr

[#13, #14] Salaries and benefits for research staff, technicians, ROV operators, engineers and security/contractors (24/7 coverage).

Insurance And Liability $1.0M/yr

[#21] Annual insurance premiums and liability fund contributions.

Power And Maintenance $900K/yr

[#4, #11, #18] Electricity and maintenance for industrial chillers, reservoir circulation and backup generator fuel/testing.

Pressurization Maintenance $500K/yr

[#5] Servicing, seals/valves replacement and certification for high-pressure systems.

Research And Monitoring $400K/yr

[#16, #19] Ongoing behavioral studies, sequencing, lab assays and environmental monitoring/reporting.

Aerial Surveillance Operations $300K/yr

[#12] Pilots/operators, flight hours, maintenance and airspace coordination for helicam-only enforcement.

Large Uncertainty Premium $300K/yr

[#30] Recurring contingency reserve (program-level uncertainty premium).

Facilities Maintenance $200K/yr

[#11] Reservoir and site civil maintenance, pumps, anti-fouling and general facility upkeep.

Rov Maintenance $200K/yr

[#17] Maintenance, spare modules and servicing for pressure-rated internal ROVs and manipulators.

Spare Parts Replenishment $200K/yr

[#23] Replenishment of critical spare parts with long lead times.

Supplies And Consumables $186K/yr

[#8, #28] Food supply chain (monthly 70 kg feed), PPE, office overhead and operational consumables.

Inspections And Certification $150K/yr

[#22] Routine NDT, pressure testing and regulatory certification.

Emergency Drills $150K/yr

[#25] Training, drills and readiness exercises for recapture/suppression teams.

Cover Story And Legal $100K/yr

[#20] Ongoing PR, legal upkeep, folklore suppression and local engagement.

Long Term Care $100K/yr

[#27] Ongoing husbandry, veterinary supplies and enrichment research.

Staff Training $30K/yr

[#15] Refresher courses and certification renewals.

Logistics And Transport $25K/yr

[#9] Remote waste removal, sample transport and disposal logistics.

Data Systems Maintenance $20K/yr

[#24] Secure archival storage, backups and server maintenance for recordings and logs.

Ir Maintenance $15K/yr

[#6] Maintenance, calibration and storage for passive IR observation systems.

Hydrophone Maintenance $3K/yr

[#7] Software updates, calibration and minor repairs for underwater transducers.

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $7.3M/yr

92.5% probability / year

Normal, uneventful year with routine operations and maintenance only.

routine_operations scheduled_maintenance

🚨 Minor Incident $8.8M/yr

5.0% probability / year +$1.5M vs baseline

Localized equipment failure or small pressurization leak requiring emergency repairs and cleanup.

equipment_failure small_leak emergency_repair_and_cleanup

🚨 Major Breach $207.3M/yr

0.5% probability / year +$200.0M vs baseline

Catastrophic failure of the high-pressure tank or major environmental release requiring full replacement, large-scale remediation and legal settlements.

structural_failure catastrophic_depressurization environmental_remediation

🚨 Research Breakthrough Requiring Scale Up $22.3M/yr

2.0% probability / year +$15.0M vs baseline

Successful research leads to planned expansion: additional DOCCs, expanded lab and scaled husbandry capabilities.

breakthrough program_scale_up capital_expansion

👥 Personnel 12 total

Role	Count	Notes
Research Scientist	3	[#14] Senior research staff conducting behavioral and genomic studies; rotational coverage considered.
Research Technician	3	[#14, #16] Lab techs for sample processing, sequencing prep and routine assays.
DOCC/ROV Operator	2	[#2, #17] Operators for remote-manipulation systems and internal ROVs (shift coverage).
Engineer / Maintenance	2	[#4, #5, #18] Mechanical/electrical staff for chillers, pumps, pressurization and generators.
Veterinarian / Marine Biologist	1	[#14, #27] On-site animal care, health monitoring and husbandry planning.
Security Officer / MTF Agent	1	[#13] Site security liaison/contract oversight (additional contractor staffing reflected in wages).

📋 Confidence Notes

Containment requires unprecedented large-volume high-pressure engineering and multiple custom systems; cost ranges are wide and dependent on major design choices (material, alternative technical mitigations). Many estimates are expert-judgment ranges rather than firm quotes, so confidence is low.

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