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SCP-2041 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-2041
Expected annual
$582K
One-time setup
$183K
Annual recurring
$576K
Personnel
5
One-time setup is estimated at $183,000, primarily for containment fit-out, pad construction, initial conservation, and contingency. Recurring annual costs are approximately $576,000 driven mainly by staff wages, ongoing research/imaging, mobile lab upkeep, and administrative overhead; occasional incidents (covert recovery or public exposure) can add hundreds of thousands.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $183K
Facilities $50K
[#1, #6, #23] One-time fit-out for secure covered storage (~$5k), controlled outdoor test pad construction (~$30k chosen midpoint), and costs for long-term disposition/decommissioning (~$15k).
Contingency Reserve One Time $50K
[#19] Initial contingency/liability reserve fund (baseline chosen mid-range).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $40K
[#7, #14] Initial research instrumentation kit (EEG, eye-tracking, cameras, luminance meters) (~$30k) and upfront materials analysis/project work (~$10k).
Equipment $21K
[#5, #11, #12, #16] CCTV and access sensors/install (~$5k), on-site medical equipment/AED/first-aid (~$3k), initial PPE kit (~$3k), secure servers/workstations (~$10k).
Legal And Cover Buyouts One Time $10K
[#18] Initial local buyouts/records remediation and legal startup costs (baseline small event budget).
Transport And Handling $5K
[#2] Standard domestic move/crating and local transport (~$5k chosen for baseline). (Note: covert/international recovery costs are modeled in contingency scenarios.)
Sop Development One Time $5K
[#24] One-time SOP development and initial training (~$5k).
Object Conservation Initial $2K
[#13] Initial conservation/anti-corrosion treatment and paint preservation (~$2k).
Public Exposure Remediation Fund One Time $0
[#22] Conditional public-exposure remediation budget (set to $0 one-time baseline; incidents modeled separately).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $576K/yr
Staff Wages $310K/yr
[#4, #15] Salaries and benefits: 1PI (~$120k), 2 research assistants/technicians (~$45k each), 2 security officers (~$50k each) = ~$310k/yr.
Research And Monitoring $116K/yr
[#3, #7, #8, #9, #14] Mobile lab/platform upkeep (~$36k/yr median), advanced imaging and fMRI/PET study costs (amortized/projected ~$50k/yr), test-subject program and stipends/medical screening (~$30k/yr).
Administrative Overhead $96K/yr
[#21] Administrative overhead (assessed at ~20% of direct recurring operational budget per institutional norms).
Cover Story And Legal $15K/yr
[#17, #18] Ethics/oversight, compliance, documentation and modest ongoing legal/cover work (~$15k/yr).
Insurance $10K/yr
[#20] Property and liability insurance or equivalent risk mitigation (~$10k/yr).
Contingency Reserve Recurring $10K/yr
[#19] Ongoing annual contribution to contingency/liability reserve (~$10k/yr).
Facilities Maintenance $7K/yr
[#1, #6] Utilities/rent for covered storage (~$6k/yr assumed) and outdoor pad maintenance (~$1k/yr).
Contracted Medical Services $5K/yr
[#11] Occasional contracted paramedic/EMT coverage for testing days (~$5k/yr baseline); equipment one-time covered under equipment.
Supplies And Consumables $4K/yr
[#5, #7, #12, #13, #16] Recurring cloud/storage fees and CCTV storage (~$1.2k), instrumentation consumables/calibration (~$1k), PPE replacements (~$500), periodic object inspections (~$1k), server maintenance/backups (~$500).
Logistics And Transport $2K/yr
[#2] Routine transport/crating/freight for site moves and equipment (~$2k/yr baseline).
Training Refreshers $1K/yr
[#24] Annual refresher training and SOP updates (~$1k/yr).
Dclass Custodial Maintenance $0/yr
[#10] If a custodial/D‑Class model is used this would be substantial (~$30k–$60k/person/yr); baseline assumes volunteer/approved subject model so set to $0.
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $576K/yr
93.5% probability / year
Normal operational year with ongoing research and containment; no major incidents or covert recovery.
routine_research regular_maintenance no_major_incident
🚨 Minor Incident $626K/yr
5.0% probability / year +$50K vs baseline
Small public exposure or localized incident requiring remediation, witness management, and minor legal/medical costs.
small_public_exposure minor_injury local_media_attention
🚨 Covert Recovery Operation $776K/yr
1.0% probability / year +$200K vs baseline
An expensive covert/international retrieval or relocation requiring charters, covert logistics, and payoffs.
international_recovery covert_logistics charter_and_payoffs
🚨 Major Breach $876K/yr
0.5% probability / year +$300K vs baseline
Significant public exposure or incident requiring major remediation, legal settlements, and extended PR/legal operations.
significant_public_exposure multiple_injuries large_scale_media_coverage
👥 Personnel 5 total
Role Count Notes
Research Scientist / PI 1 [#15] Principal investigator salary included (~$120k/yr).
Research Assistant / Technician 2 [#15] Research assistants/technicians to run tests and equipment (~$45k/yr each).
Security Officer / MTF Agent 2 [#4] 24/7 security coverage (2 officers on-site baseline, wages/benefits included).
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes are detailed and allow a reasoned baseline, but many line items have wide ranges (imaging hours, covert recovery, public-exposure remediation) and conditional paths (D‑Class usage, mobile lab vs. fixed-site), so uncertainty remains in scenario likelihoods and high-cost events.
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