SCP-2154 — SCP-2154 | Cost Breakdown

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SCP-2154 Safe ~ medium confidence

SCP-2154

Expected annual

$3.1M

One-time setup

$7.0M

Annual recurring

$3.1M

Personnel

Initial one-time setup and hardening are estimated at roughly $7.0M, driven primarily by site acquisition, major instrument modernization and an incident reserve; recurring annual costs are roughly $3.05M/yr driven by staff wages, secure operations, data management and contingency. (Analyst summary and ballpark: [#27])

🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $7.0M

Facilities $3.6M

[#1, #10, #11, #16, #22, #27] Site acquisition, structural/infrastructure work (power tie-ins, UPS/generator setup), HVAC/install and initial community buyouts/environmental compliance; #27 is the analyst summary ballpark mapping.

Initial Research And Lab Setup $1.4M

[#6, #7, #23] Instrument modernization/retrofit (optics, detectors, adaptive optics), initial HPC/SAN cluster and initial archival migration/long-term data migration setup.

Equipment $630K

[#3, #8, #13, #19] Physical security upgrades installation, communications uplink hardware, initial spare-parts cache and secure physical archive hardware.

Incident Reserve Fund $600K

[#21] Initial contingency/reserve fund capital held for rapid mobilization or initial incident response (analyst suggested large reserve).

Decommissioning $600K

[#25] One-time decommissioning / safe disposal budget if executed.

Personnel Vetting Initial $52K

[#14] Initial deep background checks and vetting for ~15 personnel (one-time vetting costs).

Emergency Setup $48K

[#20] Initial emergency medical/evacuation contracts and on-site first-responder kit procurement.

Legal Setup $30K

[#17] One-time legal/setup costs to establish cover records and initial counsel.

🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $3.1M/yr

Staff Wages $1.2M/yr

[#4, #5] On-going salaries and benefits for on-site security (estimated 6 guards) and scientific staff (senior scientists, postdocs/engineers, site manager).

Contingency Fund $600K/yr

[#26] Flexible contingency reserve (~10-25% of operating budget as recommended by analyst).

Cover Story And Legal $338K/yr

[#16, #17, #18] Local community management payments, legal retainer/cover-story management and PR/misinformation operations.

Research And Monitoring $325K/yr

[#6, #7, #23, #24] Annual instrument calibration/maintenance, archival storage operations, and fees for external collaborations/consulting for model verification (excludes initial hardware acquisition).

Data Backup Cloud $125K/yr

[#7, #8] Annual cloud/DR/backups, bandwidth service and secure communications service costs.

Facilities Maintenance $100K/yr

[#2] Ongoing dome/building envelope upkeep, roads, snow removal, seasonal repairs and groundskeeping in a cold environment.

Logistics And Transport $90K/yr

[#15] Travel, lodging, per diems, rotation allowances and transport to remote site.

Supplies And Consumables $60K/yr

[#12, #13] Consumables and cryogens (LN/He), spare-part replenishment and PPE/cleaning supplies.

Cybersecurity $55K/yr

[#9] Ongoing cybersecurity operations, SIEM, audits, penetration testing and staff cyber training.

Hvac Operation $50K/yr

[#11] Energy and maintenance costs for precision HVAC/humidity control and vibration mitigation.

Security Upgrades Maintenance $30K/yr

[#3] Annual maintenance of physical security systems (locks, CCTV, sensors, fencing).

Power Operation $30K/yr

[#10] Fuel, generator testing and operational power resiliency costs in a remote winter climate.

Containment Drills $30K/yr

[#21] Regular containment drills, incident simulations and small-scale exercises.

Personnel Vetting Rechecks $19K/yr

[#14] Annual rechecks, ongoing monitoring and recurring training for ~15 personnel.

Emergency Readiness Recurring $15K/yr

[#20] Annual readiness costs for emergency responsiveness and medevac contract renewals.

Environmental Inspections Recurring $12K/yr

[#22] Ongoing inspections, permits renewals and waste management compliance costs.

Secure Archives Recurring $6K/yr

[#19] Recurring costs for secure archive maintenance, printing/redaction equipment upkeep and preservation.

⚡ Cost Scenarios

📊 Baseline (baseline) $3.1M/yr

94.0% probability / year

Normal operational year with no major incidents; scheduled maintenance, routine research, and normal contingency provisioning.

routine_operations scheduled_maintenance normal_staffing_levels

🚨 Minor Incident $3.3M/yr

5.0% probability / year +$200K vs baseline

Localized instrument failure, minor breach attempt or targeted data-exfiltration requiring repairs, overtime, emergency shipments and PR/legal response.

instrument_failure small_breach_or_intrusion localized_data_loss

🚨 Major Breach $6.9M/yr

1.0% probability / year +$3.8M vs baseline

Severe containment/baseline failure requiring large-scale emergency response: decommissioning/relocation, major rebuild or replacement of instrumentation, extended legal/PR and international attention.

full_instrument_loss major_containment_breach forced_relocation_or_decommissioning

👥 Personnel 12 total

Role	Count	Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent	6	[#4] On-site security rotation estimated as 6 guards (salaries included in staff_wages).
Research Scientist (senior)	2	[#5] Senior astronomer(s) included in research staffing estimates.
Research Engineer / Postdoc	3	[#5] Postdocs/engineers to operate instruments and analyze data.
Site Manager / Supervisor	1	[#5] On-site manager/supervisor position included in research staffing.

📋 Confidence Notes

Estimates are based on analyst ranges and midpoints; many line items have wide ranges and some anomalous properties are expunged, increasing uncertainty. Staffing and contingency sizing are significant drivers of variance.

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