SCP-2713 Safe ~ medium confidence
SCP-2713
Expected annual
$9.4M
One-time setup
$9.7M
Annual recurring
$9.2M
Personnel
57
Initial capital costs are approximately $9.73M driven by property acquisition, perimeter hardening, and a $5M contingency reserve for scaling; annual operating costs are roughly $9.22M driven mainly by continuous MTF staffing and intelligence/monitoring.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $9.7M
Scaling Contingency Reserve $5.0M
[#23] Rapid scale-up contingency fund (minimum recommended $5,000,000 one-time reserve).
Facilities $2.8M
[#1, #2, #4] Property purchase ($1,000,000), perimeter fence & installation ($1,400,000), onsite control/operations retrofit ($350,000).
Equipment $1.2M
[#3, #8, #10, #20, #9, #22] Perimeter surveillance hardware ($250,000), vehicle procurement ($650,000), evidence/data capture hardware ($120,000), cybersecurity initial systems ($120,000), onsite medical kit/setup ($25,000), physical archive hardware ($40,000).
Intelligence One Time Ops Reserve $500K
[#12] Seed budget for overseas safehouse/setup or an initial covert denial/liaison action; analyst recommended baseline recurring but one-time seed included.
Pr Campaign Reserve $150K
[#24] One-off public relations / misinformation campaign reserve ($150,000).
Redundant Power $120K
[#5] Generators, UPS, initial fuel reserve and electrical transfer equipment one-time capital ($120,000).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $0
[#11] Dedicated radio dish/build not selected in initial plan (recommend contracted monitoring initially), thus no one-time research facility capital allocated here.
Incident Response One Time Reserve $0
[#19] Per-incident costs are variable; no fixed one-time per-incident appropriation beyond recurring contingency (handled annually).
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $9.2M/yr
Staff Wages $6.4M/yr
[#6, #7] MTF staffing and rotations (50 operational staff ~ $5.5M/yr) plus research/project staff (~$900k/yr).
Intelligence And Goi Monitoring $1.0M/yr
[#12] Ongoing GOI monitoring, liaison, covert presence and travel (~$1,000,000/yr baseline).
Incident Contingency Fund $500K/yr
[#19] Annual contingency reserved for incident response, cleanup, legal mitigation (~$500k/yr).
Cover Story And Legal $375K/yr
[#13, #24, #25] Front-company overhead, local cover and PR (~$150k/yr), recurring PR/misinformation (~$75k/yr), administrative/HQ coordination allocation (~$150k/yr).
Research And Monitoring $275K/yr
[#11, #21, #10, #22] Contracted radio/astronomical monitoring (~$100k/yr), psychological/anthropological interview analysis (~$120k/yr), secure digital storage & maintenance (~$40k/yr), long-term archive migration (~$15k/yr).
D Class Operations $150K/yr
[#18] D-class housing, transport, custody and associated oversight (~$150k/yr).
Facilities Maintenance $110K/yr
[#3, #5, #14] Perimeter sensor and CCTV maintenance (~$30k/yr), generator fuel & maintenance (~$20k/yr), grounds/perimeter vegetation & road maintenance (~$60k/yr).
Training And Exercises $100K/yr
[#15] MTF and project training, drills, interagency exercises (~$100k/yr).
Logistics And Transport $75K/yr
[#8] Vehicle maintenance, fuel, and transport support (~$75k/yr).
Cybersecurity And Monitoring $75K/yr
[#20] Network defense, threat monitoring, forensic capabilities (~$75k/yr).
Ammunition And Weapons Maintenance $60K/yr
[#16] Ammunition procurement, weapons upkeep, armory maintenance (~$60k/yr).
Supplies And Consumables $50K/yr
[#17] Consumables, uniforms, PPE, small replacements and general on-site consumables (~$50k/yr).
Medical And Evacuation $50K/yr
[#9] Ongoing med supplies, med tech training, evacuation retainer (~$50k/yr).
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $9.2M/yr
87.0% probability / year
Normal year with no major incidents: ongoing staffing, monitoring, maintenance, and planned operations only.
no_incident routine_operations
🚨 Minor Incident $9.4M/yr
8.0% probability / year +$200K vs baseline
Small-scale security incident or medical evacuation requiring overtime, limited repairs, and modest PR/legal costs.
small_breach medical_evacuations limited_cleanup
🚨 Major Breach $11.7M/yr
3.0% probability / year +$2.5M vs baseline
Significant breach or multi-site denial operation involving major repairs, extended covert ops, and replacement of assets.
GOC_engagement site_breach multi-day_denial_ops
🚨 Scaling Up $14.2M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$5.0M vs baseline
Discovery of multiple new ingress points or sustained GOI conflict forces rapid scale-up (new sites, dedicated observatory, expanded MTF deployments).
multiple_ingress_points GOI_escalation research_scale_up
👥 Personnel 57 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 36 [#6] Field agents covering 3 shifts (part of the 50-person operational complement).
Shift Supervisor 6 [#6] Shift supervisors to manage rotations and on-site command.
Medical Officer / Technician 4 [#6, #9] On-shift med/technical specialists included in operational staffing and med support.
Driver / Vehicle Technician 4 [#6, #8] Drivers and vehicle techs for transport and vehicle readiness.
Research Scientist 7 [#7] Project director, signal analysts, anthropologist/linguist, psychologist and containment specialist (7 specialists approximated to match recurring research staffing budget).
Project Director / Executive Staff 0 []
Administrative Staff 0 []
📋 Confidence Notes
Analyst notes provide detailed line-item estimates for most categories (personnel, fencing, sensors), supporting a moderate confidence. Uncertainty remains around GOI actions, number of ingress points, and whether a dedicated radio dish will be commissioned; those factors could materially change capital and recurring needs.
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