SCP-2762 Euclid ~ medium confidence
SCP-2762
Expected annual
$18.6M
One-time setup
$1.0B
Annual recurring
$17.4M
Personnel
3
One-time contingency / strategic buffer dominates costs (pre-approval lunar retrieval buffer ~$1B); recurring annual costs are driven by lunar monitoring contracts and liaison/legal/cover operations (~$17.4M/yr).
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.0B
Moon Lift Contingency Preapproval $1.0B
[#25] Recommended pre-approval buffer for a forced lunar retrieval/neutralization campaign; captures the 'phenomenal resource expenditure' pathway ($1B recommended buffer; full campaign could exceed this).
Equipment $3.0M
[#11, #17, #19, #20] One-time equipment purchases: dedicated ground instrumentation purchase, remote-handling manipulators, specialized containment cask, and initial ordnance/neutralization hardware stockpile.
Facilities $850K
[#15, #9, #22, #23] One-time facility-related setup: scoped as SCIF/secure storage upgrades, sample vault construction and backup generator/UPS procurement. Containment chamber construction (full containment after retrieval) is deferred and budgeted separately in scenarios/contingency.
Initial Research And Lab Setup $500K
[#6, #11] One-off special studies and initial lab setup for activation-mechanism research and sample analysis.
Water Tankage And Treatment $500K
[#18] One-time purchase/installation of tankage, pumps, and treatment system for the required nonhazardous liquid reservoir.
Dedicated Orbiter Build Launch $0
[#3] Dedicated lunar orbiter build/launch not funded in baseline (monitoring via partner tasking preferred); one-time orbiter costs could be $80M–$200M if chosen.
Lunar Detection Constellation $0
[#12] Full lunar-detection constellation not funded in baseline; would be a multi-hundred-million to billion-dollar one-time program if pursued.
Robotic Retrieval Mission $0
[#13] Robotic retrieval is not funded in baseline (realistic cost range $500M–$2B if executed); accounted for in contingency/preapproval buffer and adverse scenarios.
Human Retrieval Mission $0
[#14] Human-crewed retrieval not funded in baseline (costs $3B–$20B+); extremely high political and fiscal cost.
Containment Chamber One Time $0
[#15] Full containment chamber construction deferred until retrieval; one-time cost estimated at $3M–$20M when required.
Specialized Containment Cask One Time $0
[#19] Custom containment cask/transport rig costs exist ($250k–$2M) but baseline assumes episodic procurement per retrieval; not purchased in baseline.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $17.4M/yr
Research And Monitoring $12.6M/yr
[#3, #6, #8, #11, #12, #24, #22] Ongoing lunar monitoring contracts / data purchases (~$10M/yr assumed via partner tasking), recurring research team and modeling (~$1.25M/yr), specialist training and exercises (~$500k/yr), instrumentation access/time (~$500k/yr), red-team/public-safety exercises and sample curation (~$300k/yr).
Logistics And Transport $2.1M/yr
[#2, #7, #19] Observational visits (~$40k/yr), baseline reimbursements/covert payments to US Secret Service (~$2M/yr assumed mid-range), and routine specialized transport/escort costs.
Cover Story And Legal $1.7M/yr
[#5, #10, #21] Annual retainers and monitoring for covert media/cover-ups (~$1.0M/yr), legal retainer/defense (~$500k/yr), and baseline emergency medical/psychological support (~$200k/yr).
Staff Wages $450K/yr
[#1] Two full-time legal/liaison officers + one admin at ~$150k fully loaded each to manage the treaty, classified liaison, and travel (observational visit coordination).
Supplies And Consumables $425K/yr
[#17, #18, #20] Consumables and maintenance: remote-manipulator spare parts/maintenance, water handling/disposal per-year operations, and ordnance/neutralization stock upkeep.
Facilities Maintenance $150K/yr
[#9, #23] Annual maintenance and utilities for secure storage/SCIF upgrades and power (generators/UPS maintenance and operational power).
Contingency Reserve Allocation $0/yr
[#4] Large contingency reserve ($50M–$500M recommended) is held centrally and is not an annual line-item charge in the baseline SCP budget; episodic funding is provided from central contingency when incidents occur.
Post Retrieval Facility Staffing $0/yr
[#16] Facility operational staffing costs (security, technicians, manager) only apply after retrieval; not incurred in baseline. If active, expected recurring staffing cost ~$1.8M–$3M/yr.
Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $17.4M/yr
97.4% probability / year
Normal uneventful year: partner-based lunar monitoring, treaty liaison, and maintenance of cover/legal readiness with no major incidents or retrieval attempts.
no_major_incidents monitoring_and_liaison_only
🚨 Minor Incident $20.4M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$3.0M vs baseline
A visible SCP-2762-1 activation causes localized property damage or a small public exposure requiring moderate cover-up, reimbursements, and emergency response.
localized_activation_near_presidential_zone non_fatal_property_damage small_public_exposure
🚨 Major Incident $132.4M/yr
0.5% probability / year +$115.0M vs baseline
Severe activation resulting in major damage, injury or death within the presidential protection zone requiring large cover-up, legal settlements, medical costs, and political remediation.
presidential_injury_or_death major_public_incident large_legal_settlements
🚨 Retrieval Attempt $617.4M/yr
0.1% probability / year +$600.0M vs baseline
Decision to attempt retrieval/neutralization on or from the Moon (robotic campaign assumed here); massive one-time expenditure in the year of execution.
retrieval_mission_approved policy_shift_to_forced_recovery
👥 Personnel 3 total
Role Count Notes
Legal / Liaison Officer 2 [#1] Two full-time legal/liaison officers to manage treaty coordination, classified liaison, and cleared travel.
Administrative Staff 1 [#1] One administrative staff supporting scheduling, travel, and record handling for liaison operations.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates are built from analyst ranges and mid-point assumptions. Major uncertainties stem from choice between partner tasking vs dedicated lunar assets, low-frequency high-impact incidents, and policy decisions about retrieval; therefore confidence is moderate.
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