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SCP-2764 Keter ~ medium confidence
SCP-2764
Expected annual
$339.0M
One-time setup
$1.4B
Annual recurring
$336.0M
Personnel
500
Initial capital outlay is large (order of $1.4B) driven by base construction, ice-capable transport assets, and contingency reserves; annual operating costs are roughly $336M driven by personnel payroll, continuous ISR/logistics, and research/monitoring.
🏗️ One-Time Capital Costs Total: $1.4B
Icebreaker Purchase $600.0M
[#9] Option/purchase of an ice-capable vessel/icebreaker (one-time purchase estimate; charter alternative is recurring).
Facilities $340.0M
[#1, #2] Permanent hardened Antarctic base construction and engineered airfield/skiway (habitat, labs, armory, medical, sewage/waste handling; runway/lighting and hardening).
Contingency Reserve $200.0M
[#27] Catastrophic contingency reserve set-aside for major event-driven cover-ups/diplomatic crises.
Aircraft Procurement $80.0M
[#8] One-time aircraft procurement/retrofit for ski C-130s / long-range lift and ISR platforms (partial procurement assumed; full fleet costs may be higher).
Initial Research And Lab Setup $78.0M
[#15, #17, #25] Research/lab buildout and scientific instrument procurement (#15), on-site amnestic production lab setup (#17), and initial allocation to contingency R&D program (#25 initial tranche).
Equipment $65.0M
[#7, #8, #10, #11, #13, #16] One-time hardware: generator installation (#7), sensors & hardened array installation (#11 initial portion), perimeter/field gear initial procurement (#10), comms hardware (#13), field robotics/drones initial units (#16), and initial aircraft retrofit/partial procurement (#8) included here (major aircraft cost separated below).
Initial Logistics $25.0M
[#3] Heavy-lift mobilization, icebreaker staging, LC-130 and crane deployments, single large-phase site establishment mobilization.
🔄 Annual Recurring Costs Total: $336.0M/yr
Staff Wages $140.0M/yr
[#4, #5] Personnel payroll (guards, MTF, researchers, techs, medics, support, command) including rotation premium, hazard/polar pay and benefits; captures guard staffing and full on-site payroll.
Logistics And Transport $78.0M/yr
[#7, #8, #9, #18, #28] Fuel and generator fuel transport premiums (#7), recurring aircraft and patrol flight hours / maintenance (#8 recurring), annual icebreaker charter/resupply option (#9 recurring charter alternative), standing readiness / rapid redeployment retainer and logistics for mobile strike teams (#18), and secure transportation insurance/charter retainer (#28).
Research And Monitoring $61.0M/yr
[#11, #12, #14, #15, #16, #25] Ongoing sensor maintenance and telemetry backhaul (#11), leased/tasked satellite imagery & ISR data links (#12), dedicated research program funding (#14), instrument calibration/consumables (#15), drone O&M (#16), and recurring contingency R&D spending (#25 ongoing).
Cover Story And Legal $26.0M/yr
[#20, #21, #23, #29] Legal, diplomatic, and cover-up operations (#20), information control and media management baseline (#21), detention protocol training/equipment baseline (#23), and baseline archive/suppression retainer (#29).
Supplies And Consumables $17.0M/yr
[#6, #10, #30] Food, potable water production/desalination consumables, medical consumables, laundry/HVAC consumables, perimeter equipment replacement cycle and miscellaneous polar spares/local contingency costs.
Facilities Maintenance $8.0M/yr
[#1, #13, #24] Year-round base maintenance, structural/hardening upkeep, communications ops maintenance, and environmental compliance support (waste removal coordination).
Amnestic Production $2.5M/yr
[#17, #19] Ongoing production, QC, storage and distribution readiness for Class-A/B amnestics; baseline production and QC costs (per-incident administration costs are event-driven).
Personnel Health And Psych $2.0M/yr
[#22] Ongoing psychological screening, mental-health care, counterintelligence and vetting programs for personnel.
Training And Exercises $1.5M/yr
[#26] Red-team security testing, regular training, and emergency exercises (perimeter breach, flicker-to-population simulations).
⚡ Cost Scenarios
📊 Baseline (baseline) $336.0M/yr
92.0% probability / year
Normal year with no major public incidents; ongoing operations, research, and routine maintenance only.
no_public_flickers routine_operations scheduled_R&D_and_maintenance
🚨 Minor Incident $346.0M/yr
5.0% probability / year +$10.0M vs baseline
Small flicker event affecting a limited number of civilians or requiring modest rapid-response and amnestic administration.
small_flicker_outside_radius localized_civilian_exposure limited_amnestic_deployment
🚨 Major Incident $486.0M/yr
1.0% probability / year +$150.0M vs baseline
Significant flicker to a populated area requiring large-scale evacuation, mass amnestic deployment, air/sea lift, and international diplomatic cover-up.
flicker_to_populated_area mass_amnestic_campaign international_diplomatic_response
🚨 Research Breakthrough Requiring Scale Up $386.0M/yr
2.0% probability / year +$50.0M vs baseline
Discovery or containment R&D path that requires rapid scale-up of research infrastructure and trials (multi-million-dollar infusion).
scaled_R&D_investment large_field_trials infrastructure_procurement
👥 Personnel 500 total
Role Count Notes
Security Officer / MTF Agent 190 [#4, #5] On-post guard requirement (190 on-post at all times around perimeter).
Research Scientist 100 [#5, #14] Senior and junior research staff responsible for anomalous biology/physics/cognition research and R&D programs.
Technician / Engineer / Maintenance 80 [#5, #7, #15, #16] Facility engineers, power plant technicians, instrument technicians, robotics/drone maintenance.
Support staff (logistics / cooks / facilities) 40 [#6, #3, #30] Food/water handling, laundry, ground logistics and general base support.
Administrative Staff 30 [#20, #21] Base administration, legal liaison, cover-story coordination and records management.
Medical Officer 20 [#6, #17, #19] Medical support, amnestic administration oversight, trauma and mental-health care.
Drone operators / ISR specialists 15 [#11, #12, #16] Long-endurance ISR drone operators, sensor network operators and imagery analysts.
Support Field Operators / Mobile Strike Team (standing) 10 [#18] Rapid-redeployment / MTF element maintained on readiness for flicker events.
Other specialists (amnestic pharmacists, psychologists, counter-intel) 13 [#17, #22] Amnestic production staff, on-site psychologists and counter-intelligence personnel.
Site Director / Executive Staff 2 [#5] Senior command and executive oversight of the site and containment operations.
📋 Confidence Notes
Estimates derived from analyst ranges in the notes and SCP containment details (guard counts, exclusion radius). Large uncertainties remain due to event-driven spikes, policy/diplomatic variability, and optional capital choices (icebreaker purchase vs charter), hence medium confidence.
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